Round 10 of the 2017 AFL season is back to a full 9-game fixture before we get into three consecutive weeks of byes.
The ladder is starting to take shape but there are a few teams on the slide and a few teams on the rise. Round 10 has some potentially season defining games as well as some good betting matches and some games that punters should avoid or look for smaller plays on exotics.
Read on to find out what we like for round 10 of the 2017 AFL season!
Below are our early picks prior to team announcements on Thursday night. As usual, some games we’ll prefer to take the early odds and some games we’ll wait and see final lineups before placing a bet. Check back on Thursday night for any updates to our tips.
All odds are with Sportsbet – our No. 1 rated bookmaker. New signups can claim a $501* bonus bet with Sportsbet by clicking HERE.
19:20 Geelong ($1.53) v Port Adelaide ($2.51) @ Simonds Stadium
Geelong put in their best performance of the season to beat the Bulldogs last Friday night and they are at home again this Thursday night (how good is Thursday night football?!).
Port Adelaide are coming off the bye last weekend after playing in China the week before. Port are a quality team but traditionally, teams coming off the bye have a poor record and they are coming off the bye after playing in China. This is an AFL first so we’ll have to see how they go in this one.
We’ll tip Geelong to back up last week’s performance to come away with another win at home this week because there seems to be too much going against Port’s favour this week. We think Geelong at $1.53 is good odds and we’ll be looking to make a play before the odds come in a bit.
Geelong by 25
19:50 Sydney ($1.28) v Hawthorn ($3.75) @ SCG
Are Sydney back? Well, they certainly put in a dominant display to demolish the Saints by 50 points – and the Saints have been travelling well!
Hawthorn were okay against Collingwood but couldn’t get win – even with Tom Mitchell gathering 50 possessions for the match. They are still not quite up to it at the moment.
We expect Sydney to make it four in a row this week and get the four points at home on Friday night.
Sydney by 28
13:45 Western Bulldogs ($1.46) v St Kilda ($2.75) @ Etihad Stadium
Both teams coming off losses last week but the Bulldogs always give it everything and that was no different in their narrow loss to Geelong last Friday night.
St Kilda didn’t show up to play against the Swans last week and they were made to pay. They will have to be at their best from the first bounce this week to be in the match.
This game could go either way and we probably won’t be betting on this one.
For tipping purposes, we’ll take the Bulldogs because they put in a much more consistent effort than the Saints.
Bulldogs by 24
16:35 Melbourne ($1.43) v Gold Coast ($2.83) @ Tio Traeger Park
Melbourne suffered a narrow loss to the Roos last week and they looked a bit lost going forward without Jesse Hogan in the side. Unfortunately for them, he’ll be on the sidelines for at least another six weeks.
The Suns are coming off a dreadful performance in China and have just had a much needed week off.
Like Port, we just can’t tip the Suns coming off the bye (and after that China performance), so we’ll take the Demons to win this one at what we think is pretty good odds at $1.43.
Melbourne by 32
19:25 Richmond ($1.84) v Essendon ($1.97) @ MCG
The ‘Dreamtime at the G’ is one of the biggest home and away games of the season and this is a must-win game for both sides.
The Tigers of old are back and causing true heartache for their fans. Two weeks in a row they have controlled the game and lost in the final minute. Surely it can’t happen three weeks in a row!
Are Essendon the real deal? They have put in two great performances over the last two weeks and if they can bring that same level of intensity this week, they should easily account for Richmond this week.
Based on the performances over the last two weeks, we’ll have to pick Essendon to win this one and we’re really liking the current odds of $1.97.
This might be another game where you should get in early, because we think Essendon will start favourites before the bounce.
Essendon by 22
19:40 Adelaide ($1.19) v Fremantle ($4.75) @ Adelaide Oval
Adelaide were back at their best against the Brisbane Lions last weekend and came away with an 80 point victory.
Fremantle have now won five in a row and are in the top eight for the first time since they played in the 2015 Grand Final.
We won’t be betting on this one but we can’t believe the odds for Freo here! This game should be much closer than the $4.75 odds suggest so this seems like a great value.
We’ll pick Fremantle to win in what could be one of the best games of the season!
Fremantle by 4
13:10 Collingwood ($1.08) v Brisbane ($8.00) @ MCG
Collingwood showed great fight in their comeback win over the Hawks last week but still need to learn how to put in more consistent performances. They will get their chance here against the struggling Lions.
Brisbane were absolutely smashed last week against Adelaide but can put in a better performance this week against the Pies. Dayne Beams was immediately back to his best after missing the previous two games with a quad injury.
We can see nothing but a comfortable Collingwood win here.
Collingwood by 46
15:20 Carlton ($2.40) v North Melbourne ($1.58) @ Etihad Stadium
The Blues were right in the contest against Freo last week but losing two players early in the game didn’t help their rotations in a physical wet weather match.
North Melbourne worked hard to get the four points against the Demons last week and they are putting in some of the most consistent performances of any side in the comp – they are desperately unlucky not to have won more games!
Both teams will fancy their chances here but we think the Roos will outwork the Blues to come away with a good win. The current odds of $1.58 look good to us and we expect them to come a bit come Sunday afternoon.
North Melbourne by 33
16:40 West Coast ($1.65) v Greater Western Sydney ($2.25) @ Domain Stadium
West Coast were dismantled by the Bombers last week and will be looking to make amends back at home this week, however, they are facing an extremely tough opposition in GWS.
The Giants have been a bit up and down this year and have only won their last two matches in the last minute. They still have a lot of upside and will need to find it here against the Eagles who will be desperate to bounce back.
We think GWS will get the job done in Perth and not leave it to the last minute this week. $2.25 seems good odds here.
GWS by 19
Once again, all odds are with Sportsbet – our No. 1 rated bookmaker. New signups can claim a $501* bonus bet with Sportsbet by clicking HERE.