Round 11 of the 2017 AFL season is the first of the big bye rounds and we only have a total of six games this week.
We have a couple of good betting options this week and it’s probably best to get in early before the odds are crunched after team announcements. There are also two games where we think there is some value, but that will be highly dependent on Thursday’s teams – we usually don’t update our tips following team announcements, but this week it will be essential to check!
Read on to find out what we like for round 11 of the 2017 AFL season!
Below are our early picks prior to team announcements on Thursday night. As usual, some games we’ll prefer to take the early odds and some games we’ll wait and see final lineups before placing a bet. Check back on Thursday night for any updates to our tips.
All odds are with Sportsbet – our No. 1 rated bookmaker. New signups can claim a $501* bonus bet with Sportsbet by clicking HERE.
19:50 Port Adelaide ($1.19) v Hawthorn ($4.75) @ Adelaide Oval
It doesn’t get much better than Thursday night footy at a packed Adelaide Oval!
Port Adelaide were brave in defeat against the Cats last week and could’ve sealed the win if it wasn’t for an error in judgement when lining up for goal in the final minutes of the game. They’ll be desperate to make amends this week.
The Hawks were good against an in-form Sydney at the SCG and again, there was Sydney error in judgement that went the Hawks way. This error meant meant Roughead was kicking for goal on the 50m line, instead of 55m where he should’ve been had the Swans manned the mark correctly. Roughead slotted the goal to give Hawthorn the lead in final minute.
The Hawks face a tough assignment here and we are predicting Port Adelaide to have a comfortable win and cover the current -30.5 line.
Port Adelaide by 46
19:50 Geelong ($2.06) v Adelaide ($1.77) @ Simonds Stadium
Simonds Stadium has been great for the Cats over the last two weeks and they are looking to make it three in a row at their re-developed home ground.
Geelong have been back in good touch over the last three weeks but will be put to the test this Friday night against Adelaide.
The Crows are coming off a demolition victory over Fremantle in which they ran away to win by 100 points. In the wet. God knows what the scoreline could’ve been if there was clear conditions for the entire match.
If there’s any team that can beat Geelong at home right now, it’s Adelaide, and we think they’ll do it with ease.
Adelaide H2H at $1.77 is our bet of the round.
Adelaide by 30
13:45 Gold Coast ($2.40) v West Coast ($1.57) @ Metricon Stadium
Despite going down by 35 points to the Demons last week, the Suns were excellent in the first half before badly fading in the second.
They are back at home this week and are a chance to get Gary Ablett back after a minor shoulder injury.
West Coast suffered a narrow loss to the Giants last week, but the biggest loss was Josh Kennedy who looks like he’ll be on the sidelines for a number of weeks with an ankle injury.
With Kennedy out, West Coast will be desperate for either Petrie and Darling to step up and kick a bag.
Betting for this game is heavily dependent on the team announcements on Thursday night.
We’ll be back to update this one after team announcements.
Tip: leaning towards West Coast, but wait for team announcements.
16:35 Greater Western Sydney ($1.25) v Essendon ($4.00) @ Spotless Stadium
GWS got the job done in the final quarter against West Coast last week and will be looking to put in a better four quarter effort at home this week.
Essendon started well against Richmond last week but couldn’t find any space through the middle of the ground which really hampered their ball movement, and they lacked the tackling pressure that we saw the previous week against West Coast.
Essendon are capable of giving this game a shake if they bring their A-game, but the chances of seeing that are slim.
We’ll take the safe option and pick GWS here, but we like Essendon at the +27.5 line.
GWS by 20
19:25 North Melbourne ($2.25) v Richmond ($1.65) @ Etihad Stadium
Important game for North Melbourne here if they are to be any chance of playing finals this year.
The Roos were good in holding out the Blues last week, however, they still need to learn how to hold a lead and not let their opposition back into the game.
Richmond dominated forward entries against the Bombers last week but only came away with a 15 point win. They really need to improve their goal kicking and start making the most of their forward entries.
The Roos match up well against the Tigers and we think this will be a very, very close game.
We’ll pick Richmond to get the win, but prefer to take either team to win by less than 15.5 @ $2.70 as a betting option for this game.
Richmond by 10
16:40 Fremantle ($1.71) v Collingwood ($2.15) @ Domain Stadium
The only Sunday game this week is over in WA with the Dockers taking on the Pies.
This is a must-win game for both teams and Fremantle will want to bounce back in a big way after a bitterly disappointing performance against the Crows last Saturday night.
Collingwood were good against the Lions last week, despite giving them a sniff during the third quarter.
We think this will be a tight game and it really could go either way. For tipping purposes, we’ll take the home team but we won’t be betting on this game.
Fremantle by 10
Once again, all odds are with Sportsbet – our No. 1 rated bookmaker. New signups can claim a $501* bonus bet with Sportsbet by clicking HERE.