Round 12 of the 2017 AFL season sees four teams having the week off, giving us a total of seven matches from Thursday to Monday.
Five days of footy in a row!! How good is that?!
After our early analysis, we don’t think it’s the greatest round for punters, but there are four games where we think the underdogs are a real chance and we might have a small multi play at good odds (multi at the bottom of the page).
Read on to find out what we like for round 12 of the 2017 AFL season!
Below are our early picks prior to team announcements on Wednesday and Thursday night. As usual, some games we’ll prefer to take the early odds and some games we’ll wait and see final lineups before placing a bet. Check back on Thursday night for any updates to our tips.
All odds are with Sportsbet – our No. 1 rated bookmaker. New signups can claim a $501* bonus bet with Sportsbet by clicking HERE.
19:20 Sydney ($1.74) v Western Bulldogs ($2.10) @ SCG
Both teams are coming off the bye but the Swans have the home ground advantage.
The Swans had a narrow loss to the Hawks the week prior, in what was a disappointing performance in a home game that they really should have won. They won’t want to lose two in a row at home!
The Bulldogs comprehensively beat the Saints before the bye, but lost veteran skipper Robert Murphy for a few weeks with a hamstring injury late in the game.
The $2.10 odds for the Bulldogs are too good to overlook in this one, as they are the form team of the two. We’ll add this one to our multi for the week.
Western Bulldogs by 16
19:50 Adelaide ($1.18) v St Kilda ($4.95) @ Adelaide Oval
Adelaide are back at home this week after a tough loss to Geelong last week. They were a bit off their game at Simonds Stadium last week and will be looking to hit back hard at home this Friday night.
The Saints are coming off the bye and put in a disappointing performance against the Bulldogs the week before. At their best, they have what it takes to be competitive against the Crows, but it’ll require a dramatic turnaround in form.
Adelaide is a safe bet here.
Adelaide by 34
13:45 Hawthorn ($1.62) v Gold Coast ($2.30) @ MCG
The fall of the Hawks continued last Friday night when they were held to their lowest half time score in their history – 3 points. The 51 point scoreline flattered Hawthorn in the end and they were simply never in the game.
The Suns put in a great performance to beat West Coast by three points last week. Gary Ablett was at his best and helped drag the team over the line after setting up a late goal to “Two Meter Peter”.
The Suns will be without running defender Jarrod Harbrow this week after he was caught drink driving on Monday morning.
The Suns at $2.30 looks to be good value and we’ll be adding this one to our multi.
Gold Coast by 18
16:35 Brisbane ($3.50) v Fremantle ($1.31) @ Gabba
Brisbane are coming off the bye and a loss the week prior. They showed good fight in their game against Collingwood, but couldn’t maintain the pressure and the Pies ran away comfortable winners in the end.
Brisbane could welcome back former skipper Tom Rockliff from injury this week which will give a massive boost to their midfield. Big watch for his name in the team announcements.
Fremantle were extremely disappointing last week against Collingwood despite losing Sandilands just before the match started. They have been up and down this season and will not want to take the Lions lightly at the Gabba.
Brisbane could be right in this one, but we’ll have to tip Fremantle because they have clearly been the better side this year. Not confident on betting on this one.
Fremantle by 10
19:25 Essendon ($2.65) v Port Adelaide ($1.48) @ Etihad Stadium
Essendon are have put in solid efforts in the last two weeks despite coming away with two close losses. We expect to see 3-4 changes to the Bombers side that lost to GWS last week so we’ll be keeping a close eye on the team announcements this week.
Port demolished the Hawks last Thursday night but the Hawks are not the side anyone should be using as a performance indicator. The week before they had a narrow loss to Geelong.
We think this game will be very close. It’s a tough one to pick a winner, but we’ll go with the value on offer for Essendon at $2.65 and add it to our multi.
Essendon by 10
15:20 Carlton ($4.75) v Greater Western Sydney ($1.19) @ Etihad Stadium
Carlton are coming off the bye last week and a tough loss to the Roos the week before. The Blues can cause headaches for many teams, but they are up against the outright ladder leaders this week in what is a monumental task.
GWS did what they had to do to get the win against the Bombers last week. Cameron and Patton only managed one goal between them last week and will be looking to make up for that this week against a much weaker backline.
No surprises here. GWS will win easily.
GWS by 55
15:20 Melbourne ($1.60) v Collingwood ($2.36) @ MCG
The Demons are coming off the bye and a solid come-from-behind win over the Suns the week before. They won’t want to allow the Pies to get away to a quick start because they will be much harder to peg back than the Gold Coast were.
Collingwood beat Fremantle over in Perth last week and have now won three in a row, and their last loss was to GWS by three points. They are doing well and the early talk around Buckley’s coaching position has well and truly ceased – and rightfully so.
We think this game will be very close, so we are going to take the value odds for Collingwood in this one and add it to our multi for the week.
Collingwood by 8
4-leg AFL Multi of the week:
Western Bulldogs @ $2.10
Gold Coast @ $2.30
Essendon @ $2.65
Collingwood @ $2.36
Total odds: $30.20
A $35 wager will return $1,057
Once again, all odds are with Sportsbet – our No. 1 rated bookmaker. New signups can claim a $501* bonus bet with Sportsbet by clicking HERE.