We saw a host of upsets (again!) last round including the Brisbane Lions comeback victory over the Bombers and we continue to see teams with a chance to play finals blowing that chance.
Round 16 of the 2017 AFL season has some critical matches and all teams in finals contention will be fighting for their 2017 Premiership lives!
As has been the case for a number of weeks, there are a few games where we don’t like a H2H betting option and we’ll look at the big win little win markets to find some value.
At the bottom of our match previews you can find our multi for the week.
Read on to find out what we like for round 16 of the 2017 AFL season!
Please note: these are our early picks prior to team announcements on Thursday night. Check back on Thursday night for any changes to the tips due to any shock ins and outs.
All odds are with Sportsbet – our No. 1 rated bookmaker. New signups can claim a $501* bonus bet with Sportsbet by clicking HERE.
19:50 Adelaide ($1.32) v Western Bulldogs ($3.40) @ Adelaide Oval
We’re back to the Adelaide Oval for Friday night footy with last years Premiers taking on the Crows.
Adelaide were made to work hard by the Blues last week but they cam away with the 4 points in the end. We think they will show big improvement in front of a vocal home crowd this week.
The Bulldogs fought back in the final term against the Eagles last week but couldn’t quite get over the line. A win for the Dogs will be massive and puts them in the top group of teams fighting it out for a finals spot.
The Bulldogs will give it their all but I just can’t tip against the Crows here.
Betting tip: Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.10
Adelaide by 24
13:45 Hawthorn ($2.80) v Greater Western Sydney ($1.44) @ University of Tasmania
The Hawks have found some form and are now (incredibly!) in the mix to play finals! It will be a massive effort if they pull that off and they will want to continue their winning ways this weekend.
Hawthorn generally play well in Tasmania and GWS have only played there once – and that was in 2013 where they went down by 83 points.
The Giants and Cats played in the first draw of the 2017 AFL season last weekend and it was a game where the draw could almost be considered a win by the Giants. GWS are a much different side than they were in 2013, but Tasmania is a bit of an unknown factor for them.
I think the Hawks will be up to the challenge but GWS will get over the line for the win.
Betting tip: GWS 1-39 @ $2.10
GWS by 22
14:10 Collingwood ($2.00) v Essendon ($1.81) @ MCG
Both teams are playing well below their best football and a loss for either side will make it really difficult to play finals football in 2017.
Collingwood were blown away in the last quarter against the Hawks last week and will need to put in a more consistent four quarter effort this week.
The same could be said for the Bombers who threw away a 27 point lead in the final term to go down by 8 points to the current wooden spooners. They did not play like a side that deserves finals football and will need to make a statement this week if they are to turn things around.
Difficult to pick a winner in this one but I’ll go with Essendon because their best is better. Keep the stakes small for this game.
Betting tip: Essendon 1-39 @ $2.37
Essendon by 10
16:35 Sydney ($1.14) v Gold Coast ($5.80) @ SCG
Sydney are the form team of the comp and they are playing like a top four side. Forget about what we saw in the first six rounds of the season, the Swans are every bit a Premiership contender as they have been for the last 10 years.
The Suns put in a great effort to get the win for Gaz in his 300th AFL match but are up against a much tougher opponent at the SCG this week.
We’ll tip Sydney for the one but don’t like any of the margin markets in this game and the H2H odds are too short. We’ll take a small play on overs in the total game points on the smaller SCG.
Betting tip: total match points over 180.5 @ $1.90
Sydney by 36
19:25 Brisbane ($4.75) v Geelong ($1.19) @ Gabba
The Lions were brilliant in the final quarter last week against the Bombers. It was great to see the young side take full advantage of the momentum shift and play with a lot of confidence.
They are up against a much tougher opposition in Geelong this week but gain the Gabba home ground advantage.
Geelong will be disappointed with the draw against GWS last week because they really should’ve been able to close out that match. They will get back skipper Joel Selwood this week which is a massive positive.
Geelong should have a good win here but they must not take the Lions lightly.
Betting tip: Geelong 40+ @ $2.00
Geelong by 48
19:25 St Kilda ($2.50) v Richmond ($1.54) @ Etihad Stadium
The Saints were good in the final quarter when it mattered against Fremantle and came away with a good win. They are back at home this week but are facing a Richmond side who are in good form.
The Tigers were brilliant in the second half against Port Adelaide last week and highlighted their ability to score fast. No side can afford to let the Tigers get a run on like that and it cost Port Adelaide in the end.
Richmond are the better side here and they should get he win.
Betting tip: Richmond 1-39 @ $2.10
Richmond by 18
13:10 North Melbourne ($1.65) v Fremantle ($2.25) @ Etihad Stadium
North Melbourne are continuing to put in consistent efforts but left their charge too late last week against the Suns. They are back at home this week and will be looking to go one better.
Fremantle will be disappointed that they couldn’t hold on for the win against the Saints. They have to travel to Melbourne this week and are facing a side who always gives it their all.
Picking based on consistency, I have to go for the Roos this week.
Betting tip: North Melbourne 1-39 @ $2.20
North Melbourne by 12
15:20 Carlton ($2.40) v Melbourne ($1.58) @ MCG
The Blues are continuing to stun a lot of sides and they certainly gave Adelaide a fright last week. I think they match up well against the Demons and they are a big chance to get a win here.
The Demons were blown away by the Swans last Friday night and will be without the services of vice-captain Todd Viney for the next six weeks with a foot injury. They are now without their two best midfielders (and captain and vice-captain) and their best forward (Hogan).
I really like Carlton in this game and like the head-to-head odds at $2.40.
Betting tip: Carlton H2H @ $2.40
Carlton by 10
16:40 West Coast ($1.58) v Port Adelaide ($2.40) @ Domain Stadium
West Coast held on bravely against a late surge from the Bulldogs last week and retain the home ground advantage.
Port Adelaide will be disappointed with their loss to the Tigers last week as they could’ve launched into the top four with the win. They face a tough task in playing the Eagles in Perth and will need to be at their best if they are to come away with the win.
This is a really tough one to pick a winner in, but we’ll go with West Coast. For betting, we like the total points overs due to the forward firepower that each team possesses.
Betting tip: total match points over 173.5 @ $1.90
West Coast by 12
Round 16 AFL multi bet:
I’m liking all of our selections this week so we are going to multi them all to see if we can pull off a big one!
Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.10
GWS 1-39 @ $2.10
Essendon 1-39 @ $2.37
Sydney v Gold Coast – total match points over 180.5 @ $1.90
Geelong 40+ @ $2.00
Richmond 1-39 @ $2.10
North Melbourne 1-39 @ $2.20
Carlton H2H @ $2.40
West Coast v Port Adelaide – total match points over 173.5 @ $1.90
Total odds = $863.71
A $10 wager would pay out $8,637.10 at current odds, if successful.
Once again, all odds are with Sportsbet – our No. 1 rated bookmaker. New signups can claim a $501* bonus bet with Sportsbet by clicking HERE.