Round 3 of the 2017 AFL season looks to be a great round for punters with only two games looking like tough ones to pick.
We tipped 7/9 last week with Adelaide being far too good for the Hawks who are starting the year at a snails pace. Collingwood also let us down on Thursday night with Richmond being the more aggressive of the two teams and simply being too good on the night. The Pies loss also cost us last weeks multi!
Please be aware that these are our early picks prior to team announcements on Thursday night. Odds may also change significantly depending on any major selection shocks. Check back Thursday for any late mail changes to our round 3 tips after we’ve assessed all team lists.
All odds are with Sportsbet – our No. 1 rated bookmaker. New signups can claim a $501* bonus bet with Sportsbet by clicking HERE.
Sydney ($1.30) v Collingwood ($3.55)
Both Sydney and Collingwood are 0-2 to start the season so one side will get to break their duck this weekend. That team will be Sydney.
The Sydney midfield have been playing well and truly below their ability and we expect to see a sharp improvement back at home this week.
Collingwood will fight hard but the Swans will be too good in the end.
Sydney by 28.
North Melbourne ($5.25) v Greater Western Sydney ($1.16)
The Roos were desperately unlucky last week against the highly-fancied Geelong side; going down by one point after a last minute goal to the Cats.
GWS were back to their brilliant best against the Suns last week as questions were asked of Ablett’s commitment and Rocket Eade’s ability to coach the struggling club.
If the Roos can but in a performance like last week, they can make their losing margin respectable at best.
GWS by 32.
Richmond ($2.60) v West Coast ($1.50)
Both teams had hard fought wins in round 2 and this will be one of the matches of the round.
Richmond are looking like good value at the $2.60 early market and it would not surprise me if they got up against the Eagles at the MCG.
However, we think West Coast have simply too much firepower up forward for Richmond to contain and the Eagles should get over the line in a great contest.
We won’t be including this one in any bets.
West Coast by 16.
Geelong ($1.40) v Melbourne ($3.00)
Geelong were ordinary last week but still managed to sneak away with a one point win.
The Demons were challenged by Carlton but did enough in the end to come away with the 4 points.
The Demons will be without star recruit Jordan Lewis for the next 3 weeks through suspension and lose their full forward, Jesse Hogan, for the next 2 weeks. Both massive losses.
We expect Geelong to cover the current -17.5 line with ease.
Geelong by 42.
Port Adelaide ($2.65) v Adelaide ($1.49)
What a cracker Adelaide derby will be! Both teams are in red hot form and it will be football at its finest in front of a packed Adelaide Oval crowd.
If you’re looking for value, you’d have to go with Port Adelaide at $2.65 in this one.
This is another match that we’ll be leaving alone for betting purposes but we’ll predict Adelaide to get up in a very tight match.
If you want to have a small wager on the game, we’d suggest taking the Tri Bet for either team to win by less than 15.5 points at odds of $2.88.
Adelaide by 4.
Fremantle ($4.75) v Western Bulldogs ($1.19)
It would be an understatement to say there are issues at Freo. They simply lack what it takes to be competitive and there’s no question of the pressure building on Ross Lyon as the losses pile up.
The trip West won’t worry the Dogs and this will feel like a training drill for them.
We expect the Bulldogs be at their gritty best and get a nice percentage booster; easily covering the -31.5 line.
Western Bulldogs by 58.
St Kilda ($1.17) v Brisbane ($5.10)
The Saints played well against West Coast last week and had the lead for all of the match except the final 10 minutes.
The Lions let Essendon out to a 7 goal lead last week and managed to fight back and get the lead in the third quarter, only to fade in the final quarter and lose their first home match of the season.
We think we’ll see Brisbane play well in patches but the Saints will be too good in the end and get their first win of the 2017 AFL season.
St Kilda by 26.
Carlton ($4.60) v Essendon ($1.20)
Carlton were up for the fight last week against the Demons and the game was much tighter than most predicted.
Essendon’s win against the Lions was a difficult one to judge. They blitzed the Lions in the second quarter only to completely fade away in the third and have to fight back hard in the final quarter to get the win.
We think it’ll be a similar game this week from the Bombers who need to improve their performance over four quarters. Carlton will be right in the game for a long period, but Essendon will make it 3-0 to start the season.
Essendon by 22.
Gold Coast ($3.25) v Hawthorn ($1.35)
Both teams are 2-0 to start the season but only one team can make a comeback from that start.
Hawthorn still have a lot of upside and I think we’ll see a sharp improvement this week against the Gold Coast.
The Suns are struggling (to say the least) and things won’t get any easier this week.
We expect the Hawks to leave the Gold Coast with the four points and big confidence-boosting win that will dwarf the -20.5 line.
Hawthorn by 62.
AFL Round 3 Multi Special
A couple of the lines look appealing this week so we are going with a 3-leg line multi for round 3.
Geelong -17.5 @ $1.90
Western Bulldogs -31.5 @ $1.90
Hawthorn -20.5 @ $1.90
TOTAL ODDS: $6.86
Potential winnings from a $100 bet = $686
Once again, all odds are with Sportsbet – our No. 1 rated bookmaker. New signups can claim a $501* bonus bet with Sportsbet by clicking HERE.