We have expert betting tips for AFL Finals Week One, which features four games, starting with the Power vs Cats on Friday.
On the cards are the Swans vs Giants, Demons vs Lions and Bulldogs vs Bombers. The top four teams get a life, but it’s do-or-die for the bottom four.
We have done the form to find the best value bets available for the opening round of playoff games.
AFL Finals Week 1 Tips
Port Adelaide Power vs Geelong Cats @ Adelaide Oval
The Geelong gave up a premium opportunity to win the minor premiership when allowing the Melbourne Demons to come back on Saturday.
It was a disappointing loss for the Cats, but they looked good in the first half and that should give them confidence when facing the Port Adelaide Power on Friday.
Port scored a comeback victory over the Western Bulldogs in the dying stages, which will do their confidence plenty of good. However, the Power have struggled to beat top four teams, and it doesn’t get much harder than facing the Cats.
We’re surprised Port Adelaide are the favourites. We give the edge to the Cats, despite playing on the road. They are a powerful team, and it took a rampaging effort from Melbourne to stop their winning streak.
Betting tip: Geelong Cats to win @ $2 – Bet @ Sportsbet
Cats by 8
Sydney Swans vs GWS Giants @ University of Tasmania Stadium
Sydney enters the finals with a tremendous 136-49 win over the Gold Coast Suns, but the level of opposition increases significantly on Saturday.
The GWS Giants have had a solid end to the regular season, which culminated with a 89-75 win over Carlton last week. It was a tough victory after facing an early deficit, so that will give them a confidence boost.
Bookmakers’ odds were always going to be interesting with this game. Sydney has opened as the $1.61 favourites, which isn’t a big shock. However, punters could see value in the Giants head-to-head odds.
Given the season they have had, we believe the Swans deserve to make the second round. They have been the more consistent team, and they have what it takes to make a deep run in the finals.
We think GWS has done well to make it this far, but the winning run could stop.
Betting tip: Sydney Swans to win @ $1.61 – Bet @ Sportsbet
Swans by 12
Melbourne Demons vs Brisbane Lions @ Adelaide Oval
Just when it looked like the Melbourne Demons had blown a chance to win the minor premiership, they pull off a comeback for the ages.
After a terrible second quarter against the Cats, it looked like they were toast. However, this team has built its reputation on being tough and never giving up.
The Demons pulled off an outstanding comeback on the final kick of the game, and that momentum could carry them all the way in 2021.
Brisbane has been playing well over the last few weeks, including a 125-87 win over West Coast last week. The Lions are a dangerous team in the playoffs, so it’s not an easy first round matchup for the Demons.
However, Melbourne is the better team and we’re happy with the odds available. $1.63 for the minor prems is good shopping.
Betting tip: Melbourne Demons to win @ $1.63 – Bet @ Sportsbet
Demons by 17
Western Bulldogs vs Essendon Bombers @ University of Tasmania Stadium
The Bulldogs let a win slip against Port Adelaide last week, but they will be confident about beating the Essendon Bombers on Sunday.
Essendon is more than capable of causing an upset, especially after putting away Collingwood by 38 points last week. However, there are much higher expectations from the Bulldogs, and that’s shown on the points table.
We’re not surprised to see bookmakers have the Bulldogs as favourites, and we think they can bounce back from a tough defeat. It won’t be easy to beat Essendon, especially if they’re firing, but punters should be confident with the Western Bulldogs.
$1.55 is the shortest price of the week, so include it in AFL multis.
Betting tip: Western Bulldogs to win @ $1.55 – Bet @ Sportsbet
Bulldogs by 17
🤑 Who should you bet with for AFL Finals Week 1?
💰 What is the best bet for AFL Finals Week 1?
To find out our best bets for AFL Finals Week 1, read our full round Finals Week 1 preview and betting tips!
📺 How can I watch AFL Finals Week 1?
For detailed information on how to watch and live stream Finals Week 1 of the AFL season, read our guide on how to live stream AFL!
🏉 What is the fixture for AFL Finals Week 1?
Read our AFL Finals Week 1 preview and bettings tips to find out all of the fixtures and locations for the round!
After graduating from the University of Auckland (BA – English), Daryl was thrown into the world of sports and horse racing journalism.
Having worked as a racing journalist for two years, he decided to move into the online world of horse racing and sports writing. After years of honing his craft, Daryl became a professional punter in 2009 – with a focus on horse racing, NRL, AFL, NBA, Rugby, NFL, and US college sports. Daryl’s tips have been featured on various websites around the world before joining the GoBet team. When he’s not working, Daryl tries to avoid making bogeys on the golf course.