AFL Finals Week 1 Expert Tips & Predictions

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AFL Finals Week 1 Expert Tips & Predictions

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The regular season is done and now we move to the AFL Finals Week 1, which starts on September 7.

The four games are mouthwatering, including Collingwood vs Melbourne, Carlton vs Sydney, St Kilda vs GWS, and Brisbane vs Port Adelaide.

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AFL Finals Week 1 Tips

Thursday 7/9/23

7:20pm Collingwood Magpies vs Melbourne Demons @ MCG

Collingwood was the best team throughout the regular season, but injuries took their toll towards the back half.

However, we expect the Magpies to play well against Melbourne, and they would love to get a week off following the victory.

Bookmakers have framed a close market with the Magpies at $1.84. It’s a neutral venue, so there is no advantage for either team. However, we expect the Magpies to have the slight edge and reestablish their AFL dominance.

Over the next week, we expect money to come for Collingwood. It’s a stellar side on its day, and being the top seed comes with an advantage.

Betting tip: Collingwood @ $1.84

Collingwood by 5

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Collingwood vs Melbourne – betr Same Game Multi

We’ve teamed up with betr to provide the GoBet Multi for the first game of every round of the 2023 AFL season.

$1.84 for the Magpies is good shopping, so we’re including them in our same game multi. We also like the under total match points, in what should be a tense and tight-scoring affair, where goals could be tough to come by. We think this game could be decided in the second half, and we picture the Magpies pulling away late for a 75-70 win. Include Brody Mihocek to score two or more goals. He comes off a tidy performance against Essendon, and he should be full of confidence.

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Friday 8/9/23

7:50pm Carlton Blues vs Sydney Swans @ MCG

Carlton didn’t get the job done last week against GWS, but its form prior had been excellent, hence why it’s the favourite to beat Sydney.

The Blues had been one of the better teams in the AFL, and we don’t think one loss will have much of a negative impact on their mindset.

Sydney scored only 56 points in a loss to Melbourne, but it was happy to make the playoffs and hold off the Western Bulldogs for the eighth spot.

The fifth seed doesn’t usually fall to the eighth seed, and we think Carlton will be too good for the visitors in front of a home crowd.

Betting tip: Carlton –15.5 @ $1.90

Carlton by 22

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Saturday 9/9/23

4:35pm St Kilda Saints vs GWS Giants @ Marvel Stadium

There isn’t much between the Saints and Giants, which is why bookmakers have the market evenly matched.

GWS is the $1.90 favourite following a fine performance in the final round of the regular season. The Giants defeated Carlton 105-73 to secure their spot in the playoffs, and it was a terrific performance.

St Kilda lost to the Brisbane Lions, but considering the strength of opposition, we weren’t surprised by that loss.

We expect the Saints to be tough to beat as the home underdog. They should be the favourites to win, and they could firm over the next two weeks.

Betting tip: St Kilda @ $1.94

St Kilda by 10

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7:30pm Brisbane Lions vs Port Adelaide Power @ Gabba

The Brisbane Lions deserve to be favourite after a solid season, where they finished second behind Collingwood for the minor premiership.

The Lions might have finished on equal points with Port Adelaide, but to the naked eye, the Lions were the better team.

They also have a wealth of finals experience, as do the Power players, but given this game is being played at the Gabba, that gives Brisbane a huge advantage.

Bookmakers have the line at 15.5, and we think Brisbane makes a statement.

Betting tip: Brisbane –15.5 @ $1.90

Brisbane by 25

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🤑 Who should you bet with for AFL Finals Week 1?

💰 What is the best bet for AFL Finals Week 1?

📺 How can I watch AFL Finals Week 1?

🏉 What is the fixture for AFL Finals Week 1?

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About Daryl Curnow

After graduating from the University of Auckland (BA - English), Daryl was thrown into the world of sports and horse racing journalism. Having worked as a racing journalist for two years, he decided to move into the online world of horse racing and sports writing. After years of honing his craft, Daryl became a professional punter in 2009 - with a focus on horse racing, NRL, AFL, NBA, Rugby, NFL, and US college sports. Daryl's tips have been featured on various websites around the world before joining the GoBet team. When he's not working, Daryl tries to avoid making bogeys on the golf course.