AFL Round 11 Expert Tips & Predictions

The AFL continues this week with Round 11 action, starting with Hawthorn vs. Adelaide on Thursday night.

We have AFL betting tips for every game in 2026, including this week’s featured games between Fremantle vs. St Kilda, Geelong vs. Sydney, and Western Bulldogs vs. Melbourne.

Thursday 21/5/26

7:30pm Hawthorn vs. Adelaide @ UTAS Stadium

Betting Tip: Hawthorn –16.5 @ $1.90

BET NOW

Adelaide has played well recently, but we love betting on Hawthorn at UTAS Stadium, and they typically play much better in Tassie.

The Hawks look to bounce back from a loss to Melbourne as –20.5 favourites, and although they didn’t win, they match up well against Adelaide.

We’re backing them to cover the –16.5 spread and get their season back on track.

Hawthorn by 24

Friday 22/5/26

7:45pm Richmond vs. Essendon @ MCG

Betting Tip: Essendon –13.5 @ $1.90

BET NOW

It’s a hard game to predict with two teams desperately needing a win. However, given how well they have played at times this season, we’re going with Essendon to cover the spread.

The Bombers come off a tough loss to Fremantle, which was expected, but Richmond doesn’t pose the same level of threat.

There is more upside with Essendon, and early betting moves have come for them.

Essendon by 20

8:30pm Fremantle vs. St Kilda @ Optus Stadium

Betting Tip: Fremantle -25.5 @ $1.90

BET NOW

Fremantle is one of the hottest teams in the AFL, and although St Kilda has played well, we expect the Dockers to come out firing and put them to the sword.

They were far too good for Essendon last week, and they didn’t need to get out of second gear. It will be harder against the Saints, but the Dockers deserve to be –25.5 favourites with the latest AFL odds.

Punters should expect a one-sided game on Friday night.

Fremantle by 35

Saturday 23/5/26

1:15pm North Melbourne vs. Gold Coast @ Marvel Stadium

Betting Tip: Gold Coast –10.5 @ $1.90

BET NOW

We thought the line would be much higher than –10.5 for Gold Coast, which is concerning, but we’re not going to turn down the value line.

Gold Coast is the more complete team, and it currently sits in a top four position on the AFL ladder. That’s tough to overlook against 12th-placed North Melbourne, so we’re jumping on the line before it moves.

The SUNS only need to show something close to their best to beat the Roos.

Gold Coast by 20

4:15pm Geelong vs. Sydney @ GMHBA Stadium

Betting Tip: Sydney +10.5 @ $1.90

BET NOW

Geelong is the current favourite to beat Sydney, but there is good value for the Swans, who continue to do enough to win.

They had to do it tough against Collingwood last week, and although bookmakers see that as a negative, we see it as a positive. They find enough to win, and Geelong should be worried by the visitors on Saturday afternoon.

We like the +10.5 line and the $2.44 odds to win outright in the biggest game of the week.

Sydney by 5

4:35pm Collingwood vs. West Coast @ MCG

Betting Tip: West Coast +44.5 @ $1.90

BET NOW

It’s not easy to bet on West Coast, but after scoring a big upset over GWS last week, they could cover the spread against Collingwood.

We’re not sure the Magpies can produce a massive win after some tough games over the last few weeks, and fatigue could be settling in.

We expect Collingwood to win, but not to cover the sizable spread.

Collingwood by 34

7:35pm Port Adelaide vs. Carlton @ Adelaide Oval

Betting Tip: Port Adelaide –10.5 @ $1.90

BET NOW

Port Adelaide should be up for this game, as they look to repel the challenge of the resurgent Blues.

Carlton looked good when winning last week, but the occasion called for a big performance, and things could be different in Adelaide this week.

At their best, the Power should cover the –10.5 spread, and it’s worth including in AFL picks this week.

Port Adelaide by 20

Sunday 24/5/26

12:30pm GWS vs. Brisbane @ ENGIE Stadium

Betting Tip: Brisbane -14.5 @ $1.90

BET NOW

GWS and Brisbane were poor last week, but we were less impressed by the performance from GWS, who lost to West Coast.

That’s an unforgivable loss, and now they get the pleasure of playing the reigning premiers, and although betting on Brisbane away from home isn’t ideal, their class should prevail on Sunday afternoon.

Conditions should be ideal for Brisbane to kick goals, so include the –14.5 line in picks.

Brisbane by 20

3:15pm Western Bulldogs vs. Melbourne @ Marvel Stadium

Betting Tip: Melbourne @ $1.91

BET NOW

One of our best AFL bets this week is Melbourne to win outright against Western Bulldogs, as they are heading in different directions.

Melbourne is stringing wins together after scoring a good win over Hawthorn last week, and the Bulldogs are sliding down the AFL ladder.

Getting $1.91 for Melbourne is an excellent price with AFL odds.

Melbourne by 17

Editor In Chief

Daryl Curnow

After graduating from the University of Auckland (BA - English), Daryl was thrown into the world of sports and horse racing journalism.

Having worked as a racing journalist for two years, he decided to move into the online world of horse racing and sports writing. After years of honing his craft, Daryl became a professional punter in 2009 - with a focus on horse racing, NRL, AFL, NBA, Rugby, NFL, and US college sports.

Daryl's tips have been featured on various websites around the world before joining the GoBet team. When he's not working, Daryl tries to avoid making bogeys on the golf course.