Round 6 of the 2017 AFL season has some interesting match ups that we’ll discuss in detail, but let’s recap on round 5 first.
We picked 7/9 last week with the Roos not managing to hold off Freo and the Hawks causing the major upset of the round by defeating West Coast at the MCG.
The pre-ANZAC Day and the ANZAC Day matches were both great games and both drew crowds of more than 85,000. This was the first time in VFL/AFL history that back to back home and away games drew in excess of 80,000 spectators – an incredible result.
Read on to find our expert tips and best bets for round 6 of the 2017 AFL Premiership season.
Please be aware that these are our early picks prior to team announcements tomorrow night. We may review our picks if there are any major ins and outs in the team lists. Odds may also change significantly depending on any major selection shocks.
All odds are with Sportsbet – our No. 1 rated bookmaker. New signups can claim a $501* bonus bet with Sportsbet by clicking HERE.
Greater Western Sydney ($1.35) v Western Bulldogs ($3.21)
GWS are playing their first Friday night match since they entered the comp in 2012 and it’s a rematch of last year’s thrilling preliminary final against the Bulldogs.
GWS are in great form and the Bulldogs are struggling a bit but still managing to do enough to get the points each week.
The Bulldogs will need to find something special to manufacture a win over the Giants, and we don’t think they’ll manage to find it this week.
This game will be tough and tight but GWS have the faster spread and will manage to put up a winning score.
GWS by 28.
Hawthorn ($1.77) v St Kilda ($2.07)
The Hawks claimed their first victory of the 2017 season in a huge upset over the Eagles last week. Are they finally back? Or was it a one-off performance?
The Saints were no match Geelong last week and this is a very important match for both teams.
This will be a tight game with both teams desperate for the points. We’ll tip the Hawks to make it two in a row and beat the Saints in a tough match.
Hawthorn by 16.
Carlton ($4.60) v Sydney ($1.20)
The Blues copped a hiding last Friday night in what made for poor viewing. Luckily for the fans, we don’t have to see the Blues on a Friday night for the rest of the season.
Sydney were in blistering form last week against the Giants…for about 5 minutes. They jumped to a 4 goal lead and then did little for the rest of the first half and were no match for GWS in the end.
Sydney have started the year at 0-5 but should come away with a good win against the inexperienced Blues outfit.
Will this be the start of a comeback for the Swans?
Sydney by 36.
Brisbane ($5.30) v Port Adelaide ($1.16)
The young Brisbane side have a lot of fight in them and are really making the opposition work hard for a win. The final score of their game against the Bulldogs last week is not a true reflection of their performance.
Port are well and truly up for the contested game and have the firepower up forward that could put the Lions away earlier than most teams.
We think it’ll be a fairly tight game for two-and-a-half quarters before Port’s relentless pressure becomes too much for the young Lions.
Port Adelaide by 44.
North Melbourne ($1.43) v Gold Coast ($2.83)
Another week, another narrow loss for the Roos.
The Gold Coast played the in-form Crows and the margin was about what we expected.
The Crows will do that to much better opposition and it’s a tough one to judge the Suns on.
If you’re looking at pure betting value, you would have to go with the Suns in this game. This game should be a close one and the $2.83 on the Suns looks to be amazing value in a game that really could go either way.
However, for our head-to-head pick, we are going to stick with the the Roos again this week (and we’re not even Roos fans!) and pick them to come away with the points for the first time this year.
North Melbourne by 10.
West Coast ($1.35) v Fremantle ($3.21)
West Coast will be disappointed with their effort against the Hawks last week and will be looking to bounce back at home this week.
Freo managed to sneak away with the victory against the Roos last week after a last minute goal by new recruit Shane Kersten.
Freo have found a spark in recent weeks, but we think West Coast will be good enough to get the win this week.
West Coast by 24.
Essendon ($1.88) v Melbourne ($1.92)
What a performance by the Bombers on Anzac Day! Big Joe Daniher was superb and took home the Anzac Medal after playing his best game for the Bombers.
The Demons were looking great against the Tigers but were no match in the final quarter after losing two players for the game.
The Demons now have a big dilemma when it comes to their ruck department and the Bombers should get back David Myers this week after his dominant performance in the VFL last week.
The Demons will also be getting Jordan Lewis back in the side after serving his three match suspension for striking.
This will be another tight one for both teams but we think the Bombers will come away with the win after getting first use of the ball at the stoppages.
Essendon by 14.
Geelong ($1.27) v Collingwood ($3.80)
Geelong’s superstars stood up at all the right times in their match against the Saints last week to go 5-0 to start the season.
The Pies tried hard but weren’t able to stop the Bomber’s small forwards from hitting the scoreboard, which hurt them in the end. They also had no match for Joe Daniher’s mobility as a big man.
We don’t expect Collingwood to be able to turn it around against the Cats this week and the pressure will mount on coach Nathan Buckley.
Geelong to have a comfortable win.
Geelong by 46.
Adelaide ($1.14) v Richmond ($5.75)
Two undefeated teams squaring off in what could be the match of the round.
Adelaide have definitely played the better opposition and had better wins, hence the short odds.
We think Richmond (and their fans) are in for a rude wake up call this weekend and will come crashing back to reality.
The current odds of $1.14 don’t look appealing, but we think the Crows will cover the current -34.5 line at $1.92 with Sportsbet.
Adelaide by 48.
Once again, all odds are with Sportsbet – our No. 1 rated bookmaker. New signups can claim a $501* bonus bet with Sportsbet by clicking HERE.