Round 7 of the 2017 AFL season is shaping up to be an interesting weekend with many stars taking a break and a few superstars out with minor injuries.
There were some serious upsets last week and we only managed to pick 5/9. Not many punters would’ve picked Carlton to upset the Swans or Collingwood to convincingly beat Geelong, but well done to you if you picked those ones!
Round 7 appears to be a fairly easy week for picking winners and the odds also suggest that, however, there appears to be a few big danger games and which we’ll probably avoid having a punt on.
Teams were announced earlier tonight and we’ve had time to analyse the ins and outs to settle on our picks. Final teams for Sunday’s games will be named tomorrow night but we don’t think we’ll be changing any of our selections.
All odds are with Sportsbet – our No. 1 rated bookmaker. New signups can claim a $501* bonus bet with Sportsbet by clicking HERE.
St Kilda ($2.90) v Greater Western Sydney ($1.42)
GWS get to play back-to-back Friday night games and they were great to watch in last weeks win over the Bulldogs.
The Saints looked great against the once again struggling Hawks and their style of play matches up well against GWS.
We expect this game to be close but we’ll take GWS to get up in a close one.
We’re not liking the line available on this match but we’ll also take total match points over 190.5 @ $1.90.
GWS by 16.
North Melbourne ($6.05) v Adelaide ($1.13)
The Roos finally claimed their first win of the season over the Gold Coast. They obviously face a much tougher task here against the only undefeated team in the comp.
We predicted Adelaide to demolish Richmond last week and they delivered. Adelaide are on another level this year with their strong defense and their ability to hit the scoreboard quickly.
This one will be ugly and we are loving the Crows on the -37.5 line @ $1.92.
Adelaide by 60.
Collingwood ($1.35) v Carlton ($3.20)
Collingwood played a smart game last week and really limited the impact that Selwood and Dangerfield had on the game.
Carlton stunned everyone last week in keeping the Swans winless, but can they back up that performance this week?
We’re tipping this to be another tightly contested match but think Collingwood will run away with the game in the end and cover the -20.5 line @ $1.92.
Collingwood by 28.
Port Adelaide ($1.34) v West Coast ($3.40)
Port were fantastic at the Gabba in their demolition of Brisbane Lions and are back at home this Saturday afternoon. Boak is a big in this week.
West Coast were back in the winners books last week in their local derby win over Fremantle. West Coast have named an unchanged line up.
This should be a good game and if we were picking based on best value, we’d have to go with West Coast at $3.40!
However, we think Port Adelaide will win in a high scoring match and are liking the total match points over 185.5 @ $1.90.
Port Adelaide by 20.
Gold Coast ($3.40) v Geelong ($1.32)
The Little Master was at his absolute brilliant best last week against the Roos and he left the field with 45 possessions 9 tackles and a goal. Amazing.
The Suns have some quality ins this week with Sam Day, David Swallow, and Kade Kolodjashnij back into the team.
Geelong were disappointing last week and weren’t able to overcome the tactics of Collingwood. They should be better this week.
This is another tough one. We like the Gold Coast as the value pick who will be doing their best to mimic Collingwood’s tactics from last week and limit the impact of the Geelong midfield, however, we think Geelong will come away with a hard fought win in the end
We like Geelong 1-39 @ $2.25.
Geelong by 22.
Western Bulldogs ($1.32) v Richmond ($3.40)
The Bulldogs were very good in their narrow loss to GWS last Friday night and an effort like that this week will get them the win.
Richmond got a wake up call last week against the Crows and this could’ve been the game of the round if it weren’t for some big outs. S.Morris, D.Prestia (hamstring), R.Conca (foot), and T.Nankervis are all out.
The Bulldogs will win this one and we like them on the line of -20.5 @ $1.92.
Western Bulldogs by 28.
Sydney ($1.11) v Brisbane ($6.70)
Sydney hit rock bottom last week in losing their sixth straight game to start the 2017 season. But the thing about hitting rock bottom is that the only way to go is up! McVeigh is a big in for the Swans.
Brisbane were outclassed from the very first bounce against Port last week and will be missing captain Dayne Beams for at least two weeks with a quad injury.
The young Brisbane side are fighting hard in most of their games but will find this one too tough.
The Swans Swans should have their first win of the season here and we’ll take them to cover the -45.5 line @ $1.92.
Sydney by 52.
Melbourne ($1.46) v Hawthorn ($2.75)
The Demons found another gear in the second half against the Bombers last week and ran away comfortable winners in the end. Hogan will be a big in if he is up to playing this week. Check the late mail prior to the game on that one.
The Hawks were simply not up to the task against the Saints last week and were dealt another massive loss. Birchall, Rioli, and Whitecross have been named in the side this week with the side to be finalised tomorrow night.
We think the Hawks will improve this week but Melbourne will claim back-to-back wins and cover the -13.5 line @ $1.92.
Melbourne by 22.
Fremantle ($1.49) v Essendon ($2.65)
Fremantle were solid after the first quarter against the Eagles last week but the damage had already been done after West Coast kicked seven goals to one.
Essendon look tired, sluggish, and flat in their loss to the Demons last Sunday and have made some big changes to the team list this week. Jobe Watson and Andrew McGrath are being rested this week and saved from the long trip west this week. J.Kelly, B.Stanton, M.Leuenberger, D.Myers, M.Hartley, J.Stewart, A.Francis, K.Mutch have been named in an extended lineup.
This seems to be a 50/50 game so we’re liking the value pick of Essendon to win @ $2.65. However, hold your bets on this one until the final team lists are submitted on Friday night.
Essendon by 12.
Once again, all odds are with Sportsbet – our No. 1 rated bookmaker. New signups can claim a $501* bonus bet with Sportsbet by clicking HERE.