Brisbane vs. Essendon Predictions

We have Brisbane vs. Essendon predictions for AFL Round 18 on Sunday, July 12 at 4:40pm at the Gabba.

Punters are greeted with the biggest line of the week on Sunday evening, where Brisbane is favoured by 62.5 points against an Essendon team struggling to deliver.

Best Bet

Brisbane –62.5 @ $1.90

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Last year’s premiers should enjoy an easy win on Sunday, and although the line looks imposing, Brisbane could put up a cricket score.

They have turned their season around with four consecutive wins over Gold Coast, Richmond, Sydney, and Geelong, and their 126-83 win over Sydney is a good guide for betting on this game. If they can beat Sydney by 43 points, they can beat Essendon by 63 points.

The Bombers weren’t expected to play well this season, but it has been worse than expected. They are 0-17 in their last 17 road games, and what we saw against St Kilda wasn’t good. The 117-50 loss showcased how far behind the rest of the opposition they are, and it could get worse this week.

We have Brisbane winning by at least 70-80 points, so the –62.5 line is one of our better bets of the week.

Same Game Multi

Brisbane –62.5, Logan Morris 3+ Goals, Kai Lohmann 3+ Goals, Total Points Over 187.5 @ $8.00

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Logan Morris and Kai Lohmann have a good chance to kick 3+ goals. Morris has 16 goals from his last four games, including three goals against Geelong. He will get every chance to kick at least three goals against Essendon at $1.45 odds.

Punters get better odds for Lohmann to kick 3+ goals at $3.15. He had five goals in a big performance last time out, and when his confidence levels are up, he’s tough to slow down. Include him in AFL SGM picks as a value bet.

Over 187.5 points is worth including as Brisbane could score close to 130 points.

Best Value Bet

Brisbane –99.5 @ $6.05

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Brisbane is a team that loves putting big totals on the opposition, and given the way Essendon has played, this game could be one-sided after the first quarter.

Covering a 99.5 margin isn’t easy, but expectations are low for Essendon, who have just about given up the ghost in 2026.

The $6.05 odds are generous enough to include as a value bet, in a game where the final score could be 150-50.

Editor In Chief

Daryl Curnow

After graduating from the University of Auckland (BA - English), Daryl was thrown into the world of sports and horse racing journalism.

Having worked as a racing journalist for two years, he decided to move into the online world of horse racing and sports writing. After years of honing his craft, Daryl became a professional punter in 2009 - with a focus on horse racing, NRL, AFL, NBA, Rugby, NFL, and US college sports.

Daryl's tips have been featured on various websites around the world before joining the GoBet team. When he's not working, Daryl tries to avoid making bogeys on the golf course.