** 2021 preview and predictions are shown below – 2022 predictions will be updated on the Monday before the round starts! **
The AFL season is almost ended with the final between the Melbourne Demons and Western Bulldogs being played next weekend, but first we have the Brownlow Medal.
It honours the best players in the game, and we have our best Brownlow Medal betting picks. We also look at the exotic betting markets, including top five finish, Brownlow Medal quinella, most three-vote games and other exotic markets.
It has been another fantastic season, so let’s make some coin on the awards celebration.
2021 Brownlow Medal Predictions
2021 Brownlow Medal Winner – Ollie Wines
Ollie Wines is the market favourite to win the 2021 Brownlow Medal, and we think he has run down Marcus Bontempelli for the top spot.
The Port Adelaide star was giving the Western Bulldogs player a fair start, but Wines closed the gap, and we think he can pull ahead on the night.
Our Brownlow predictors had Wines a couple of points behind after 19 rounds, but there is little doubt that Wines finished slightly stronger than Bontempelli. However, Clayton Oliver also made a run for it.
Sportsbet has Wines paying $3 to win, so they’re predicting a similar situation. Wines finished strongly and could score a narrow victory.
$3 is a fair price for the Brownlow favourite and we’re prepared to put Ollie Wines on top.
We would back Bontempelli as a small saver bet. He could have done enough to grip onto the victory and the $4 is a big enough price to back both players.
Bet: Ollie Wines @ $3 – Bet @ Sportsbet
Top Five Finish – Christian Petracca
The top four positions look safe with Bontempelli, Wines, Oliver and Jack Steele, but the race for a top five position is wide open.
Four players are listed within $2.25-$2.40 to take the fifth spot, but we’re giving the edge to Melbourne Demon Christian Petracca. The 25-year-old closed his season in good form, so we think he could have tallied plenty of late votes.
It will be a close-run thing between all four players on the cusp, but we think he has done enough. We’re happy with the $2.25 available.
Bet: Christian Petracca @ $2.50 – Bet @ Sportsbet
Brownlow Medal Quinella – Bontempelli/Wines
Punters get good value for this option, considering it’s likely a three-player race.
Wines is our top pick to win the Brownlow Medal, and we think he will defeat Bontempelli by only one or two votes. Clayton Oliver will be right around the mark, but given the $4.50 available for this option, we’re including it in our selections.
We think the odds will firm throughout the week for the Bontempelli/Wines quinella, so get in early.
Bet: Bontempelli/Wines @ $4.50 – Bet @ Sportsbet
Leader After Round 5 – Taylor Walker
We’re not surprised to see Taylor Walker leading the betting market for this option. He started the season well for the Adelaide Crows, despite the team not performing well.
Adelaide played its best footy in the opening rounds, which saw Tex get plenty of points. His form would deteriorate throughout the season, and he ended up playing only 12 games.
However, we only care about the first five rounds, and he played well enough to win this betting option.
Bet: Taylor Walker @ $2.75 – Bet @ Sportsbet
Brownlow Medal Winning Margin – 1 to 2
We would be surprised if the winning margin wasn’t close, so we’re picking 1 to 2. It pays $1.95 with bookmakers, which is a fair price given the close nature of the 2021 Brownlow Medal.
Tie is $4.20, which is a possibility, but punters get wriggle room with the 1 to 2 option. Punters should include it in Brownlow Medal multi bets as a short-priced favourite that is likely to cash.
Bet: 1 to 2 @ $1.95 – Bet @ Sportsbet
Most Three-Vote Games – Marcus Bontempelli
Marcus Bontempelli is a big-game player, and we predict he had the most three-vote games.
He had some big games for the Bulldogs, and although his team didn’t finish top of the table, he was typically the standout player on the field.
There has been steady betting support for the 25-year-old, who has firmed into $2.37. That is a solid move, so we’re adding him to our Brownlow Medal selections.
Bet: Marcus Bontempelli @ $2.37 – Bet @ Sportsbet
🤑 Who should you bet with for the Brownlow Medal?
💰 What is the best bet for the Brownlow Medal?
To find out our best bets for the Brownlow Medal, read our full Brownlow Medal preview and betting tips!
🏅 What are the best value bets for the Brownlow Medal?
Read our AFL Brownlow Medal preview and bettings tips to find out all of our best value picks the Brownlow Medal night!
📺 How can I watch the Brownlow Medal?
For detailed information on how to watch and live stream the Brownlow Medal coverage, read our guide on how to live stream AFL!
After graduating from the University of Auckland (BA – English), Daryl was thrown into the world of sports and horse racing journalism.
Having worked as a racing journalist for two years, he decided to move into the online world of horse racing and sports writing. After years of honing his craft, Daryl became a professional punter in 2009 – with a focus on horse racing, NRL, AFL, NBA, Rugby, NFL, and US college sports. Daryl’s tips have been featured on various websites around the world before joining the GoBet team. When he’s not working, Daryl tries to avoid making bogeys on the golf course.