Geelong vs. Carlton Predictions - AFL Elimination Finals 2026

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We have Geelong vs. Carlton predictions for the AFL Elimination Finals on Friday, September 4 at 7:40pm at the MCG.

There is no tomorrow for the loser of Friday’s game, where Geelong are favourites to hold off a surging Carlton.

Best Bet

Geelong -6.5 @ $1.90

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Geelong opened at -8.5 with AFL odds, but there is a lot of public money coming for Carlton to make it back-to-back finals wins.

The Blues looked good last week when beating Melbourne, and we’re not discrediting that performance. However, they’ll need to play even better this week, and they could come out flat after such an emotional performance.

The Cats have been sitting back and smoking their pipe, and they’ll be well-prepared to face Carlton. Last year’s beaten finalists haven’t had an amazing year on the stats sheet, but we think they’re just as good as they were in 2025.

They enter the finals riding a winning streak, and although a few of those wins came against average teams, they defeated Melbourne 117-97 in Round 20. That’s a good form guide, and we think the experience of the Cats come finals time will make a big difference.

With the weight of money coming for Carlton, punters get a better line at -6.5. That’s worth including in AFL predictions this week.

Same Game Multi

Geelong -6.5, Shannon Neale 2+ Goals, Jay Polkinghorne 2+ Goals, Total Points Over 174.5 @ $7.25

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Shannon Neale has emerged as Geelong’s premier scorer with Jeremy Cameron going through a rough patch. Neale has been a steady player in 2026, and he has 16 goals from his last five games, which is why we’re including him in AFL SGM picks at $1.62 to kick 2+ goals.

Punters get good odds for Jay Polkinghorne to kick 2+ goals. The 20-year-old has made a big impact since becoming a starting player for Geelong, having kicked 11 goals in his last five games. The $2.30 odds give multi bets a healthy boost.

Geelong’s last seven finals games have gone over, and we expect a high-scoring game. Include over 174.5 points in AFL picks this week.

Best Value Bet

Jay Polkinghorne 3+ Goals @ $5.30

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Geelong might have unearthed a superstar in Polkinghorne, and we’re backing in the youngster for Friday’s game.

The occasion doesn’t look too big for him, and although his kicking mechanics will improve with time, he has made a good start to his AFL career.

He has two 3+ goal games in his last four matches, so the $5.30 odds to kick 3+ goals against Carlton is worth including as a value bet.

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Editor In Chief

Daryl Curnow

After graduating from the University of Auckland (BA - English), Daryl Curnow was thrown into the world of sports and horse racing journalism.

Having worked as a racing journalist for two years, he decided to move into the online world of horse racing and sports writing. After years of honing his craft, Daryl became a professional punter in 2009 - with a focus on horse racing, NRL, AFL, NBA, Rugby, NFL, and US college sports.

Daryl's tips have been featured on various websites around the world before joining the GoBet team. When he's not working, Daryl tries to avoid making bogeys on the golf course.