
We have GWS vs. Sydney predictions for AFL Round 20 on Saturday, July 25 at 4:35pm at ENGIE Stadium.
Looking to bounce back from a shocking loss is GWS, which is the $2.35 underdog against a Swans team also looking to recover from a loss.
Best Bet
GWS is 8-0 in their last eight games as a home underdog, but we’re going against betting trends for this game. The Giants didn’t pass the eye test when losing to Essendon last week, which was a deflating performance.
Sydney needs to recover from back-to-back losses to Fremantle and Adelaide, but losing to the best teams in the competition isn’t the worst form. They looked tired last week following a fourth quarter onslaught from Fremantle two weeks ago, so they’ll be better prepared to face an uninspiring GWS outfit.
We’re surprised by the –9.5 line for Sydney. Despite playing on the road, we expected them to be around –15.5. They have a better roster, and they’re still a title threat. We don’t rate GWS as a chance to make the playoffs, let alone win a title, so back Sydney –9.5 with confidence.
Same Game Multi
It’s rare for Charlie Curnow to go goalless, but that’s what happened against Adelaide. He couldn’t get involved in what was a physical encounter, but he shouldn’t have any problems getting marks inside the 50 against GWS. He’s a leader goal scorer, and the $1.88 odds to kick 3+ goals is worth including in AFL SGM picks.
Toby Greene has 10 goals from his last five games, and he could keep GWS close in the first half. He’s consistent enough to include in picks at the current odds.
We predict a goal-fest at ENGIE Stadium, and five of GWS’s last six home games against Sydney have gone over the total. Therefore, including over 184.5 in picks despite the line being on the high side of value.
Best Value Bet
Stephen Coniglio has a goal in three of his last four games for GWS, so we’re taking the $3.75 odds for him to kick a goal.
He’s not a noted goal kicker, but he’s getting himself into the action, and he’s an accurate kick when gets a chance to convert.
The current odds qualify him as a value AFL pick this week.
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