Hawthorn vs. Adelaide Predictions

We have Hawthorn vs. Adelaide predictions for AFL Round 11 on Thursday, May 21 at 7:30pm at UTAS Stadium.

One of the biggest games of the week gets us started when the Hawks and Crows meet in Tasmania, where Hawthorn is currently favoured to win.

Best Bet

Hawthorn –15.5 @ $1.90

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Winning games hasn’t been easy for Hawthorn over the last few weeks, but we have them rebounding with a big win over Adelaide.

They had a draw against Collingwood before losing to Fremantle and Melbourne. That form isn’t the greatest when facing Adelaide coming off three consecutive wins, but we always enjoy betting on Hawthorn in Tasmania.

They find another gear on the island, and it’s why they’re 15.5 favourites. The Hawks are 11-0 in their last 11 matches in Tassie, so the statistics are worth following. We expect them to be too good for Adelaide, who plays its best footy at the Adelaide Oval.

Take the –15.5 line before money comes for the Hawks during the week and we have them winning by 20-25 points.

Same Game Multi

Hawthorn –15.5, Nick Watson 3+ Goals, Mabior Chol 2+ Goals, Total Points Over 165.5 @ $8.00

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Nick Watson is a $1.68 chance to kick three goals, having scored 15 goals in his last five games, including three last week against Melbourne. He’s an in-form player, and although the odds are on the shorter side of value, he’s worth including in AFL SGM picks.

Punters get $1.90 for Mabior Chol to kick 2+ goals, who should bounce back from a scoreless effort last week. He kicked two goals in consecutive games prior to last week, so he is another strong multi bet inclusion.

Their last two meetings have gone over 165.5 points, and it’s a lower line than expected. We have around 180 points being scored, so include the over in AFL multi bets.

Best Value Bet

Massimo D’Ambrosio Anytime Goal Scorer @ $2.25

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Massimo D’Ambrosio is paying generous odds to kick a goal, having kicked three goals from his last four games.

The Hawk tends to go under the radar in goal scorer markets, but he’s an excellent bet at $2.25, as we priced him at around $1.85.

The current odds are good enough to label him as a value bet.

Editor In Chief

Daryl Curnow

After graduating from the University of Auckland (BA - English), Daryl was thrown into the world of sports and horse racing journalism.

Having worked as a racing journalist for two years, he decided to move into the online world of horse racing and sports writing. After years of honing his craft, Daryl became a professional punter in 2009 - with a focus on horse racing, NRL, AFL, NBA, Rugby, NFL, and US college sports.

Daryl's tips have been featured on various websites around the world before joining the GoBet team. When he's not working, Daryl tries to avoid making bogeys on the golf course.