Hawthorn vs. Melbourne Predictions

We have Hawthorn vs. Melbourne predictions for AFL Round 17 on Saturday, July 4 at 1:15pm at the University of Tasmania Stadium.

It’s a great way to kick off Super Saturday as the Hawks and Demons battle in the all-top eight clash, where Hawthorn is the $1.38 favourite to prevail in Tassie.

Best Bet

Hawthorn –17.5 @ $1.90

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We love betting on Hawthorn when they play in Tasmania, and for good reason. They are 12-0 in their last 12 games at UoTS, and we expect that winning streak to improve to 13-0 against Melbourne.

The Demons have three losses from their last five games, and although they looked good when beating Collingwood and Essendon, they came back down to earth with a Round 15 loss to Adelaide at home. It wasn’t a good performance, so they’ll need to improve significantly on that.

Hawthorn has four wins from its last five games, and their only recent loss was a one-goal margin for the Western Bulldogs. They rebounded with wins over Gold Coast and GWS, and any doubts about their midfield were put to bed last week.

We have Hawthorn winning easily and covering the –17.5 spread. Melbourne should present a challenge in the first half, but the Hawks should take over in the second half.

Same Game Multi

Hawthorn –17.5, Nick Watson 3+ Goals, Mabior Chol 2+ Goals, Total Points Under 172.5 @ $9.75

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Nick Watson has been an excellent AFL SGM pick lately, having kicked three goals in his last three games. He is consistently delivering for Hawthorn and punters, so we’re including him in picks at $1.76.

Mabior Chol is another good multi bet addition at $1.73 odds. He has 10 goals in his last five games, and he likes to get involved in the early action. We predict Chol kicking a couple of first half goals, so punters can sit back and relax.

Melbourne has struggled on offence at times, and this could be one of them. Include under 172.5 points in SGM picks.

Best Value Bet

Mabior Chol First Goal Scorer @ $10.50

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Chol is a player who gets stuck in from the outset, and he could be rewarded with the first goal of the contest.

He can miss the odd goal from close range, but he’s typically a good shot at goal and we have him scoring the first six pointer on Saturday afternoon.

The $10.50 odds are juicy enough to include as a value bet.

Editor In Chief

Daryl Curnow

After graduating from the University of Auckland (BA - English), Daryl was thrown into the world of sports and horse racing journalism.

Having worked as a racing journalist for two years, he decided to move into the online world of horse racing and sports writing. After years of honing his craft, Daryl became a professional punter in 2009 - with a focus on horse racing, NRL, AFL, NBA, Rugby, NFL, and US college sports.

Daryl's tips have been featured on various websites around the world before joining the GoBet team. When he's not working, Daryl tries to avoid making bogeys on the golf course.