Richmond vs. Carlton Predictions – AFL Round 17 2026

We have Richmond vs. Carlton predictions for AFL Round 17 on Saturday, July 4 at 7:35pm at the MCG.

Teams heading in opposite directions square off on Saturday night as the Tigers look to save face against the resurgent Blues.

Best Bet

Carlton –35.5 @ $1.90

Things didn’t look good for Carlton early days, but after six consecutive wins, they have turned it around in a big way.

They dominated West Coast last week 117-64, and punters should expect a similar result this week. The Blues are still outside the top eight despite going on a winning run, which shows how bad their start to the season was.

However, they’re doing everything they can to put pressure on the top eight teams, and facing Richmond is an ideal way to notch their seventh consecutive victory. Richmond isn’t offering much resistance, including a 73-48 loss to North Melbourne in Round 15.

Richmond keeps making costly turnovers in the wrong part of the field, and Carlton should capitalise. We have them winning and covering the –35.5 spread, and the line could move higher throughout the week.

Same Game Multi

Carlton –35.5, Harry McKay 3+ Goals, Mitch McGovern 2+ Goals, Total Points Under 168.5 @ $15.50

Harry McKay is Carlton’s leading scorer, and he has two 3+ goal games over his last three matches. He kicked three goals against West Coast last week, and he’ll get his chance to kick plenty of goals against Richmond. The $2.45 price gives a big boost to Richmond vs. Carlton SHM odds.

Mitch McGovern went three consecutive games without scoring, but he fired back with two goals last week. It was a solid performance, and he could get on the board early before kicking a second goal in the second half.

Under 168.5 points goes into the mix based on Richmond’s lack of scoring prowess. Carlton’s last seven road games have gone under the total, so it’s a good statistical bet.

Best Value Bet

Harry McKay First Goal Scorer @ $9.00

It never takes McKay long to get into the action, and we have him kicking the first goal in the game.

His size should be too much for Richmond’s struggling defence to cope with, and the $9 odds for McKay to kick the first goal are better than expected.

Include him in AFL picks this week before his odds firm.

Daryl Curnow
Editor In Chief

After graduating from the University of Auckland (BA - English), Daryl was thrown into the world of sports and horse racing journalism.

Having worked as a racing journalist for two years, he decided to move into the online world of horse racing and sports writing. After years of honing his craft, Daryl became a professional punter in 2009 - with a focus on horse racing, NRL, AFL, NBA, Rugby, NFL, and US college sports.

Daryl's tips have been featured on various websites around the world before joining the GoBet team. When he's not working, Daryl tries to avoid making bogeys on the golf course.

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