The Rugby Championship heads to Perth as the Australian Wallabies look to salvage a win over the New Zealand All Blacks.
New Zealand won the Bledisloe Cup 2-0 in emphatic fashion, so it will take a good effort from the home side to avoid losing a third consecutive game.
Bookmakers have the All Blacks at $1.13 to win, so most of the action on Sunday will come in the points spread markets.
Bledisloe Cup Game 3 Tips
New Zealand vs. Australia Bledisloe Cup Game 3 Preview
New Zealand dominated Australia in the first two games of the Rugby Championship. The first score line was closer than it appeared after Australia made a late comeback, but it was a one-sided affair for the most part.
It was even worse for the Wallabies in Game 2 as the All Blacks scored a 57-22 victory at Eden Park. However, the All Blacks never lose at Eden Park, so playing in Perth won’t be as easy for the Kiwis.
They have also lost some key players for this game, including captain Sam Whitelock, inspirational halfback Aaron Smith and in-form first five Richie Mo’unga. The All Blacks have loads of depth but missing three of their best players is a fair chunk of talent.
If the Wallabies want to be competitive, they will need to bring the game to the visitors. Playing passive and defensive rugby won’t get it done against a counterattacking team. If Australia kicks the ball downfield, expect the All Blacks to run the ball back with ease.
We’re not surprised to see the All Blacks at $1.13 to win. They should win the game comfortably, but will they cover the 16.5-point spread. It’s a decent margin for a game played in Australia, and the Wallabies typically put up a fight at home.
Due to some senior players staying in Auckland, we’re going with the Wallabies to cover the spread. 16.5 points is too much of a head start against a team that is desperate for success.
Punters have struggled with backing the Wallabies with confidence, but this is an ideal situation, and if they’re ever going to test the All Blacks, now would be the time.
Take Australia +16.5 and hope they start the game well on defence.
Bet: Australia +16.5 @ $1.97 – Bet @ Sportsbet
New Zealand vs. Australia Bledisloe Cup Game 3 Exotic Picks
There is also excellent value in exotic betting markets, and we have identified a few markets punters can take advantage of.
New Zealand is paying $1.57 to win by more than 13 points, but we think Australia keep it close. We would prefer to take the All Black 1-12 at $3.60, which is excellent value.
There is always a risk the Wallabies win the game outright, but at those odds, we’re prepared to run the risk.
We always love taking an alternate line for more value. We think the Wallabies can keep it to a 10-point game, so it feels only right to take the Wallabies +10.5 at $2.50. Punters get generous odds, and although the points spread of +16.5 offers more insurance, the value is good enough to take the risk.
We also like the halftime margin of +7.5. Australia is good enough to keep it close in the first 40 minutes, which is likely to happen in Perth. New Zealand hasn’t had an ideal preparation, so they could come out rusty.
After graduating from the University of Auckland (BA – English), Daryl was thrown into the world of sports and horse racing journalism.
Having worked as a racing journalist for two years, he decided to move into the online world of horse racing and sports writing. After years of honing his craft, Daryl became a professional punter in 2009 – with a focus on horse racing, NRL, AFL, NBA, Rugby, NFL, and US college sports. Daryl’s tips have been featured on various websites around the world before joining the GoBet team. When he’s not working, Daryl tries to avoid making bogeys on the golf course.