Billed as The Legend vs The Olympian, Manny Pacquiao vs Yordenis Ugas is set for this Sunday afternoon and it should be a thrilling contest.
Ugas stepped up to the plate after Errol Spence Jr was forced to withdraw. Ugas is the current WBA welterweight champion and Pacquiao is the former eight-division world champion.
We look at where punters can find value in betting markets. Pac Man is the current favourite and it could be his last fight.
Pacquiao vs. Ugas Fight Preview
Manny Pacquiao is one of the all-time boxing greats, and despite being 42 years old, he continues to impress inside the ring.
The Filipino champion hasn’t lost since a controversial unanimous decision loss to Australia’s Jeff Horn in 2017. He has had three fights since, including a TKO victory over Lucas Martin Matthysse.
He also notched decision victories over Adrien Broner and Keith Thurman, which were amazing wins given his age. Pacquiao continues to defy belief and there aren’t too many doubting him in Las Vegas this weekend.
It will be his 72nd fight, which is testament not only to his longevity but also his skill. Any lesser fighter would have been considered too slow, but Pacquiao continues to box at the highest level.
Looking to score an upset is Yordenis Ugas, who is a 35-year-old American born fighter that now resides in Cuba. He suffered his fourth career loss in 2019 against Shawn Porter, but rebounded with three consecutive wins.
The WBA champion scored a split decision win over Abel Ramos to win the vacant title last year, but he hasn’t fought the same level of opponents as Pacquiao.
We give Ugas credit for stepping up to the plate in the absence of Spence Jr, but he could struggle with the speed and class of Manny.
Pacquiao vs Ugas Pick
Bookmakers have Manny Pacquiao as the $1.22 favourite and it’s hard to imagine him being defeated by Ugas.
We respect the ability and the title held by Ugas, but fighting Pacquaio is a different kettle of fish. It will be tough to land a significant blow on the speedster, who is excellent at evading the big blows.
Ugas is paying $4, which is a fair price for the underdog. There isn’t much value with backing Pacquiao in head-to-head markets, so we’re searching for value in exotic betting markets.
The fight is 12 rounds and the current method of victory favourite is Pacquaio by points or decision, but we’re going with a knockout. He still has the power to knock out Ugas, and punters can enjoy odds of $2.63.
The knockout will likely come later in the fight, so we’re predicting either Round 9 or Round 10. Backing both options is a sound strategy for punters as they pay $17 and $19 respectively. Round betting always comes with risks, but it makes the latter stages of the fight entertaining for punters.
There is also value in knockdown markets. Bookmakers are paying $1.91 for Ugas to get knocked down, which is excellent value. He has been knocked down by lesser fighters, so we like Pacquaio’s chances of landing a 10-8 round.
Pick: Manny Pacquiao by KO/TKO @ $2.63 – Bet @ Sportsbet
Pacquaio vs Ugas Undercard Picks
There are three major undercard fights, including Carlos Castro vs Oscar Escandon, Mark Magsayo vs Julio Ceja and Victor Ortiz vs Robert Guerrero.
We expect Carlos Castro to come out of his fight the winner. He is paying $1.14 to win, so Oscar Escandon doesn’t appear to have much chance.
Another short-priced favourite is Mark Magsayo to beat Julio Ceja. Magsayo is a Filipino boxer that is 22-0 and looks to have a bright future. Ceja is an experienced 32-4-1 fighter and former champion, but Magsayo is the up-and-comer to follow.
We would also include Victor Ortiz at value odds of $2.17. The American has had his troubles outside the ring, but he’s talented and capable of turning his career around against Guerrero.
Punters get $2.17 for Ortiz and he’s worth including in boxing multi bets.
After graduating from the University of Auckland (BA – English), Daryl was thrown into the world of sports and horse racing journalism.
Having worked as a racing journalist for two years, he decided to move into the online world of horse racing and sports writing. After years of honing his craft, Daryl became a professional punter in 2009 – with a focus on horse racing, NRL, AFL, NBA, Rugby, NFL, and US college sports. Daryl’s tips have been featured on various websites around the world before joining the GoBet team. When he’s not working, Daryl tries to avoid making bogeys on the golf course.