Derby Day is all about the Victoria Derby and a quality 18-horse field will line up for the $1.5 million prize.
Thinkin’ Big is the current favourite with bookmakers but he’s drifting in the betting as money comes for a host of other chances.
We have done the form and found our best bet, best each way and best roughie for the 2018 Victoria Derby at Flemington.
2018 Victoria Derby final field, barrier draw and odds
Our Best Bets for the 2018 Victoria Derby
Thinkin’ Big @ $3.30 – BET NOW
Best Each Way Bet:
Extra Brut @ $9.50 – BET NOW
Chapada @ $17 – BET NOW
2018 Victoria Derby form guide and tips
Thinkin’ Big (Best Bet – $3.40) – BET NOW
Big colt which loves to roll along in front and leave them chasing around the home turn. Has drifted in the betting since opening at around $2.90 but he should be tough to beat.
His win in the Ladbrokes Stakes last start was top quality and he was able to put three lengths on a similar field. That’s not easy to do over 2000m and stretching out to 2500m won’t be an issue for him.
Top chance and punters are getting better odds now.
Aramayo ($6) – BET NOW
James Cummings lines up the Poet’s Voice colt which is bred to stay but was a touch disappointing at Moonee Valley last start.
He did work home OK behind Stars of Carrum but we’re not sure that’s the best form guide for this race and the $6.50 is just too short to take.
Extra Brut (Best Each Way – $9.50) – BET NOW
Backed and beaten when running almost six lengths behind Thinkin’ Big last start and there’s some confidence in the market again.
Perhaps not best suited by running at Caulfield, the three-year-old by Domesday was a winner at Flemington his start prior and that form should stack up well here.
Looks suited to this distance.
Stars of Carrum ($8) – BET NOW
Upset winner in the Moonee Valley Vase at odds of $51 last time out but that might have been a flash-in-the-pan performance.
He’s a one-race winner from eight starts, which is bred to stay and the rise in distance will only help his chances, but with only one good run to go on, we can’t confidently tip him here.
Home Ground ($23) – BET NOW
John Sargent knows how to train a stayer and Home Ground did the job well at Geelong last start in the Classic.
The well-bred son of High Chaparral will only get better over the longer distances but he has yet to show form against the very best age-group stayers in Australia and he would need to find another couple of lengths to take this out.
Micky Blue Eyes ($17) – BET NOW
Scored back-to-back victories in Melbourne and Sydney to open his account this season. Has battled in two runs since against tougher opposition but he could sit back and flash home late.
If there’s a solid pace on up front, expect the Lindsay Park-trained colt to be finding the line with purpose.
Savoie ($10) – BET NOW
Lost no admirers when running second behind Stars of Carrum last start and it should come out of that race with plenty of upside.
The Darren Weir-trained three-year-old has been close at his last two starts, which followed back-to-back wins, including one at Flemington by four lengths.
That kind of form will take him close and the $11 is good value.
Visao ($51) – BET NOW
5.4 lengths behind Thinkin’ Big last start and it’s tough to see him finding enough improvement to beat this field.
Drifting in the betting and it’s hard to make a case for him.
Seberate ($151) – BET NOW
Form is simply not good enough to win a Derby. Bigger upsets have happened but this would rank highly.
Chapada (Best Roughie – $17) – BET NOW
Mike Moroney has the ability to train a Derby winner at just its fifth start and that was a solid effort for second behind Thinkin’ Big last start.
James McDonald picks up the ride on the son of Bullet Train, which has improved steadily over more distance and the 2500m isn’t going to be too far for him.
$16 is overs and we’re expecting punters to come late for the talented type.
Sikorsky ($26) – BET NOW
Continues to run good sectionals and that often sees him fighting out the finish. Nothing wrong with his form coming into this and if he can sit handy to the pace, a first four result is on the cards.
Well drawn and Luke Nolen is due a big win.
Farooq ($12) – BET NOW
Second behind Home Ground last time out in the Geelong Classic and the son of Frankel might have more upside than Home Ground.
Tony McEvoy’s team is running smoothly at the moment and given the support in the betting, that’s a good sign going forward. Chance at double-figure odds.
Louie The Legend ($101) – BET NOW
Didn’t fire last time out and it’s tough to see him turning that form around. Likely to drift out to triple figures come start time.
Savvy Oak ($19) – BET NOW
Scored a win on debut and hasn’t won since but it has nice staying credentials. Drawn well so will enjoy a soft trip in transit and there’s some support in the betting.
We’re just unsure if the form through that Moonee Valley race is the best form for this.
Tolemac ($67) – BET NOW
5.1 lengths behind Home Ground at Geelong and it shouldn’t be figuring in the finish. Tough to win a Derby at your fourth start.
Grinzinger Star ($36) – BET NOW
Scored a good win two back before running third at Geelong. Might be better off with another preparation under its belt.
Alessandro ($31) – BET NOW
Two wins from three starts and there’s plenty of improvement to come. Gets the inside draw but winning the Derby could be a stretch.
Vow And Declare ($67) – BET NOW
Winner at Warrnambool last time out but a win here would be a shock.