UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa Predictions

UFC Fight Night 276: Allen vs. Costa takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas, United States. – and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below, and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!

Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa Prediction

Arnold Allen comes in off a unanimous decision loss to Jean Silva in January for a main event fight against Melquizael Costa, who is on a six-fight winning streak.

The 32-year-old Allen has actually lost three of his last four fights, which is uncharacteristic for a fighter who had gone 19-1 in his career beforehand, including a 10-fight winning streak in the UFC. He’s been consistently going up against leading 145lb talents in recent fights though, with his other recent losses coming against Max Holloway and Movsar Evloev. On top of that Allen also did have a serious shoulder injury that kept him out for nearly 18 months prior to the loss to Silva. Allen is a technically sound, methodical striker who works well from range with crisp boxing and good footwork. He’s not a power puncher, but he picks out his shots well and is always mindful of his defensive responsibilities. Allen also has underrated wrestling ability and good cardio too.

The 29-year-old Costa has really found his form in the UFC over the past few years after a shaky start that saw him lose two of his first three fights in the Octagon. Since then he’s proved to be an exciting fighter with a good finishing rate, both on the feet and on the mat. Costa likes to apply pressure and his kicks are a real weapon, as proven by his last two finishes coming in the 1st round by head kick KO against Morgan Charriere and then a spinning back kick TKO against Dan Ige. Costa can be prone to being a bit reckless though, and was KO’d once earlier in his UFC run, but generally speaking he’s shown a commendable ability to battle back from tough moments in fights. Costa also mixes in a bit of wrestling and has good grappling that’s led to 8 of his 17 career finishes coming via submission, though he’s also been submitted a couple of times too.

Costa is more of a finishing threat here, but this is a step up in competition for him and I like Allen’s more composed, calculated striking game and good cardio over five rounds to get the better of him on the scorecards.

Arnold Allen to win by decision

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Doo ho Choi vs. Daniel Santos Prediction

Doo-ho Choi won his last two fights by TKO and now fights Daniel Santos, who is on a four-fight winning streak.

‘The Korean Superboy’ Choi has had a disjointed run in the UFC due to compulsory military service, injuries and other issues that means he’s actually only fought 9 times in the Octagon over the past 11 years. In fact even now the 35-years-old Choi is coming off an almost 18-month lay-off following a knee injury. Choi has always been a fast, athletic and skilled striker who goes all-in on looking for a finish. He’s certainly got the power in his hands to do that as he’s delivered no less than 13 finishes via strikes from 16 career victories. And though it’s not his first option, he’s actually capable of being competitive on the mat too. The problem for Choi though has been that his commitment to reckless offense at times can leave him exposed defensively, and he was TKO’d twice earlier in his UFC run.

The 31-year-old Santos holds a solid 14-2 career record overall and has been in good form in the UFC over the past few years, without having beaten anybody particularly notable yet. Santos is also an offensively-minded striker who applies pressure with a good mix of weapons and respectable power that’s led to 7 stoppages, including three via spinning attacks. He has a good chin and has never been stopped in his career, which can make him a bit too willing to eat shots while looking to land his own. Santos is also a respectable wrestler and does have a couple of submission wins on his record.

I think Choi actually looked pretty good the last time he came back from a lengthy lay-off, but he is getting up there in years now and with Santos also being a good action fighter with a better chin, I’ll take him to edge out a back-and-forth battle to earn a 2nd round TKO victory.

Daniel Santos to win by TKO in Rd2

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Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz Prediction

Malcolm Wellmaker has gone 2-1 in the UFC so far and now fights Juan Diaz, who comes in for his promotional debut from the Contender Series with a 15-1 career record.

The 31-year-old Wellmaker’s decision loss last time out was the first defeat of his 11-fight career. He’s a striker with quick hands and big power that was on display when he won his Contender Series fight by 1st round KO, followed by two early knockout finishes in his first two UFC bouts. He will mix in some kicks too and also has a couple of submission wins early in his career. However, despite a good finishing rate he’s not really an all-action fighter, and last time out he struggled with being put on the back-foot over three rounds.

The 27-year-old Diaz won his Contender Series with a spinning back elbow, but that’s not the norm for him as he’s typically a capable boxer first-and-foremost and doesn’t have all that many stoppage wins on his record. Diaz works his jab nicely, has solid cardio and can mix in some grappling too, with two submission wins to his name. He’s not the fastest or most mobile striker though, and his wrestling is underwhelming, while he’s also yet to face anyone of any real note.

I think Wellmaker is the better fighter overall here, and is certainly the faster, harder-hitting striker, which should lead him to a 2nd round TKO finish.

Malcolm Wellmaker to win by TKO In Rd2

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Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards Prediction

Modestas Bukauskas is coming off a KO loss, but had been on a four-fight winning streak prior to that. He’ll now face a late replacement in Christian Edwards, who has been brought in on just a few days notice to make his UFC debut.

Bukauskas struggled in his first UFC stint a few years ago, going just 1-3, but has put together a 6-2 run since returning to the promotion in 2023. The 32-year-old is a big, physical fighter with a respectable kickboxing game and good power, with two of his last four UFC wins coming via KO, and 11 finishes overall via strikes in his career. His durability is a concern though as five of his seven career losses have come via strikes. Bukauskas can also mix in the occasional takedown too and has three submission wins.

The 27-year-old Edwards has essentially had no time to prepare for this match-up after being brought in during fight week. Tall and athletic, the Jackson-Wink fighter was tipped for big things at the start of his MMA journey and immediately signed for Bellator, but he’s since gone just 8-4 overall and has only won three of his last seven bouts. Edwards like to use kicks from range, but likes to close the distance to get into the clinch or go for a takedown. His knees can be a threat at close quarters and he has solid ground-and-pound.

Both fighters here aren’t particularly reliable, but I’ll take Bukauskas to keep this upright and have the upper-hand in the striking department to emerge with a 2nd round TKO victory.

Modestas Bukauskas to win by TKO in Rd2

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Timothy Cuamba vs. Bernardo Sopaj Prediction

Timothy Cuamba has won his last two fights in the Octagon and now takes on Bernardo Sopaj, who is 1-1 in the promotion so far.

The 27-year-old Cuamba was deemed to be promising but not yet UFC-ready when he won his first Contender Series fight back in 2023. However, less than a year later he was handed a short-notice debut in the promotion. Cuamba would go on to lose his first two fights in the promotion, but has since found his footing with a TKO finish and decision victory. Cuamba is primarily a competent boxer, but he does also have a couple of TKO finishes by flying knee and head kick in the past couple of years. He doesn’t have much wrestling ability, but he’ll still try for a takedown now and then. He’s yet to earn a submission win in his pro-career, though he did have a couple during his time on the amateur scene.

Sopaj didn’t have the best of starts in the UFC as he was KO’d by a nasty flying knee in the dying stages of his promotional debut. He’d actually been doing reasonably well earlier in that fight though, and has since earned a decision victory over Ricky Turcios. Sopaj is still only 25-years-old and appears confident in his solidly well-rounded skill-set. He’s an accurate striker who offers a good variety of punches and kicks, while he’s also a capable wrestler and can present a threat on the mat with submissions and ground-and-pound. He has 10 finishes in total from his 12 career wins, including 7 stoppages by strikes.

I feel that Sopaj has the edge in most key areas here and am taking him to secure a decision victory.

Bernardo Sopaj to win by decision

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UFC Fight Night 276: Allen vs. Costa Prelims

(Predicted winners in bold)

Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan
Trey Ogden vs. Thomas Gantt
Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti
Cody Brundage vs. Andre Petroski
Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana
Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule
Shauna Bannon vs. Nicolle Caliari
Khaos Williams vs. Nikolay Veretennikov

MMA Writer

Ross Cole

Ross Cole is one of the most prolific mixed martial arts writers in the world.

Having written more than 22,000 MMA news stories for MMA Insight, which he founded in 2009 as a way to channel his passion for the sport of mixed martial arts.

Few people know the UFC and the sport of MMA like Ross, and he has built a solid reputation for being one of the best MMA tipsters in the world.

You can read more of Ross's work at MMAInsight.com.