UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis Predictions

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UFC Fight Night 240 takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the APEX arena in Las Vegas, United States – and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below, and you can join the action at the best betting sites Australia has to offer!

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis Predictions


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Brendan Allen vs. Chris Curtis  Prediction

After a six-fight winning streak Brendan Allen was set to fight former 185lb title contender Marvin Vettori next, but with his opponent injured Chris Curtis steps in on three weeks notice coming off a win and carrying an overall 5-2 (+1nc) record in the UFC so far.

There’s history between these two as Curtis is actually the last man to have defeated Allen back in December of 2021 when he came in on short notice and delivered an upset TKO finish in the 2nd round. The 28-year-old Allen has rebounded strongly since then though, continuing to hone his well-rounded skills with improvements to his striking, while also showcasing his knack for being able to scramble well and take the back, leading to five of his latest six wins coming via rear-naked choke.

Part of what makes this fight so interesting though is that the 36-year-old Curtis has very good takedown defense and is hard to finish, having only been stopped once apiece by strikes and submission in his entire 42-fight career. Allen’s grappling is better than his wrestling, so getting the veteran down into his world would be difficult and keeping him there far from certain. That makes for an intriguing fight on the feet, with Curtis being a tight, compact boxer whose already shown his power against Allen and works well to the body and head, while also having good counter-striking instincts.

I think last time out Allen was a bit too willing to just trade with Curtis without fear for the consequences, perhaps underestimating his foe, who is 4″ smaller and on the small side for a middleweight. He’ll have learned from that though and I think he’ll be looking to stay out of the pocket where ‘Action Man’ is at his most dangerous, and instead will look for more kicks on the outside to all levels, while also utilizing more movement – something that has frustrated Curtis in the past.

With those adjustments, together with still mixing in takedown attempts and scrambling opportunities at times, Allen has more ways to win and I think can eek out a victory on the scorecards, but it’ll be a tense five-rounder due to the ever-present threat of Curtis catching him with something big like he did in their first fight.

Prediction: Brendan Allen to win by decision.

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Alexander Hernandez vs. Damon Jackson  Prediction

Alexander Hernandez has only mustered a 6-6 run in the UFC so far and will attempt to improve upon that against Damon Jackson, who has gone 5-3-1 (+1nc).

Despite an underwhelming UFC record the 31-year-old Hernandez has had some good wins in the Octagon, including KO’ing Beneil Dariush in his promotional debut back in 2018, beating Francisco Trinaldo, and in his most recent win last year being the only person to have defeated Jim Miller in his last six fights. He’s a physically strong athlete and a good boxer with stopping power in his hands and solid kicks backing them up,  while he can wrestle too. Hernandez can be guilty of putting too much into his offense early and not managing his cardio correctly, which proves problematic if he doesn’t get a finish, as evidenced by all three of his losses via strikes in the UFC having come in the 2nd half of the fight.

The 35-year-old Jackson isn’t the most athletic fighter or the hardest hitting, but he looks to make up for that with his pace and pressure from start to finish. He’ll be active on the feet, but his chin has let him down at times, with all four of his losses via strikes being by clean KO. Jackson will look to mix things up though with a gritty mix of wrestling and grappling and has has  significant success with submissions, accounting for 15 of his 22 career victories.

Both fighters will see opportunities here, with Hernandez having the power to finish Jackson early with strikes, while Jackson has the pace and cardio to take over later in the fight. While both men have struggled to break beyond their current spot in the UFC, Hernandez has shown glimpses of something better a times, and with Jackson now starting to get up there in years and coming off two losses I’ll take Hernandez to test his chin early and emerge with a 1st round TKO victory.

Prediction: Alexander Hernandez to win by TKO in Rd1.

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Morgan Charriere vs. Chepe Mariscal Prediction

Morgan Charriere earned a 1st round KO victory in his UFC debut and now fights Chepe Mariscal, who has claimed back-to-back wins in the Octagon so far.

The 31-year-old Mariscal steps into this fight on about a month’s notice. His “Machine Gun’ nickname gives a clue as to what to expect from him as he’s an aggressive, hard-headed brawler who wants to swarm his opponents with offense and has respectable power. He’s there to be hit in return though and can be rocked, though he’s the type of fighter that will do his best to fight on regardless. Mariscal does also have a background in wrestling and judo, but he’s not polished in any particular aspect of his game.

Known as ‘The Last Pirate’, the 28-year-old Charriere is a more patient, technical striker who will look to pick his shots rather than just swing for the fences. That means there’s not a great deal of volume to his approach, but he’s accurate and has finishing power in both his punches and kicks when he does land. Charriere has solid takedown defense and in 28-career fights has only lost once by submission and has never been finished by strikes. When he can’t find a stoppag he’s by no means certain to win on the scorecards though.

This is an interesting clash, with Mariscal’s pressure and higher-volume offense having the potential to make life uncomfortable for the slower-paced Charriere and also increase his chances of a win by decision if they make it that far. I think Charriere will find clear opportunities to land with authority here though given Mariscal’s defensive lapses, and even though he’s tough I think the Frenchman manages to rock him here and then follows up for a TKO finish in the 2nd round.

Prediction: Morgan Charriere to win by TKO in Rd2.

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Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Christos Giagos  Prediction

Ignacio Bahamondes suffered a loss last time out that ended his three-fight winning streak and leaves him 3-2 in his UFC run. Now he’ll fight Christos Giagos, who is coming off a submission loss and has gone 6-7 overall, spread across two separate stints in the UFC.

The 26-year-old Bahamondes is a very big lightweight who will hold 3″ in height and 4″ in reach over Giagos here. He’s a good technical striker with power in his hands and some nice finishes via kicks too. He works to the head and body well with solid power and can use his reach to his advantage at range, though perhaps not as often as he should as he likes striking at closer quarters too. He also has good takedown defense, is a capable grappler, and despite his size he’s generally proven to have fairly sturdy cardio.

The 34-year-old Giagos is a good athlete and solid all-rounder who is comfortable whether he’s taking the fight to the mat with his wrestling or keeping it on the feet to work his energetic striking. He’s perhaps more effective on the mat and he can strike well from there and grapple too, but the concern is that he has been vulnerable to submissions at times over the course of his career, including being finished by chokes in his last two losses. Meanwhile, 14 years into his career it’s possible his durability is starting to wear down and his habit of leaning into his athleticism could become more difficult to maintain in his mid-30’s.

Giagos is still a capable fighter, but I do think Bahamondes being the younger, larger fighter with cleaner technique and better endurance will pay off here, possibly via a late finish, though I’ll say he wins on the scorecards.

Prediction: Ignacio Bahamondes to win by decision.

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Valter Walker vs. Lucasz Brzeski  Prediction

Valter Walker arrives in the UFC with an unbeaten 11-0 record and will put that to the test against former Contender Series recruit Lukasz Brzeski, who by way of contrast has lost all three of his fights in the promotion so far.

Billed as a Russian fighter, it may be a surprise to discover that the 26-year-old Walker is actually the half-brother of another UFC fighter, Johnny Walker. He doesn’t really look or fight like him, but as with his sibling he is very big for his weight class, standing 6ft 6″ with an 81″ reach and in good shape for a 265lb’er. He lacks his brother’s athleticism and speed though and is much more of a lumbering slugger who tends to overcommit on his punches and is hittable. As you’d expect for his size he does have power though and works in some good knee strikes. He also likes to wrestle and seems to have better technique in that regard than on the feet.  His cardio is suspect though, but hasn’t found someone that can really punish him for that yet.

It’s surprising that Brzeski is still in the UFC given that he failed a drug test after signing to the UFC from the Contender Series and since serving his nine-month suspension has gone winless in three fights, including being KO’d in the 1st round last time out. He’ll be giving up 4″ in height, 3″ in reach and about 20lbs to his opponent here. He’s a decent all-rounder who should be lighter on his feet than Walker and offers a high output in the striking department, but isn’t the best defensively, and though he can operate offensively on the mat he can be outwrestled.

Walker is quite raw on the feet, but I think with his size he could trouble Brzeski and his willingness to wrestle could be a big factor if he can’t find a finish on the feet. I’ll say he gets a 2nd round TKO finish here though.

Prediction: Valter Walker to win by TKO in Rd2.

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Trevor Peek vs. Charlie Campbell  Prediction

A clash of former Contender Series fighters here, with Trevor Peek having gone 2-1 in the UFC so far, while Charlie Campbell has went 2-0.

The 29-year-old Peek typically has a fan-friendly, all-action style that sees him go all-in on wild offense without a great deal of technique on the feet.  That paid off for him on the regional circuit with a string of finishes, then a TKO victory on the Contender Series and late first round KO win in his UFC debut. Another fighter on this card, Chepe Mariscal was able to stand up to his intensity and outlast him to win on the scorecards however , and in his last fight we saw a more measured version of Peek as he fought to the first decision win of his career.

The 28-year-old Campbell is tall for a lightweight at 6ft and in addition to being 3″ taller than Peek will also have an extra 2″ in reach. Like Peek he is an aggressive striker from the opening bell and has finishing power, but he’s more controlled with his technique than his opponent and has a better kicking game. That being said, Campbell actually lost his only Contender Series appearance via 1st round KO, which leaves some doubt over his durability.

It’s not clear whether Peek’s more toned down style in his last fight is something that he’s looking to implement permanently, but given that his opponent is also a combative striker it’s more likely that a stand-up war ensues here. Peek may well have the stronger chin, but I think Campbell can punish him for overcommitting on his strikes and poor defense to land a 2nd round TKO finish.

Prediction: Charlie Campbell to win by TKO in Rd2.

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UFC Fight Night 240 Prelims

(Predicted winners in bold)

Court McGee vs. Alex Morono
Norma Dumont
vs. Germaine de Randamie
Alatengheili vs. Victor Hugo
Piera Rodriguez
vs. Cynthia Calvillo
Nora Cornolle vs. Melissa Dixon
Dan Argueta vs. Jean Matsumoto
Dylan Budka
vs. Cesar Almeida

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About Ross Cole

Ross Cole is one of the most prolific mixed martial arts writers in the world, having written more than 17,000 MMA news stories for MMA Insight, which he founded in 2009 as a way to channel his passion for the sport of mixed martial arts, and reaching millions of die-hard MMA fans in the process. You can read more of Ross's work at MMAInsight.com.