UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland Predictions

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, United States. – and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below, and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!

Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland Prediction

Khamzat Chimaev heads into his first middleweight title defense holding a perfect 15-0 record and now goes head-to-head with former champ Sean Strickland, who is coming off a big TKO win against Anthony Hernandez.

The 32-year-old Khamzat turned in a dominant victory over five rounds against Dricus du Plessis to win the title last time out, using his elite-level wrestling to repeatedly get his opponent to the mat and comfortably control him. The only thing that was missing was a finish, but his record shows that he’s more than capable of that with a number of quick stoppages having come via his punishing ground-and-pound and assured submission game over the years. Meanwhile, on the feet he has respectable striking technique, power and a good chin, but he’s not as dominant there as he is on the mat. As such, good fighters who’ve been able to keep the action upright long enough to exchange with him for extended periods like Gilbert Burns (down at 170lbs) and Kamaru Usman, have been competitive. That being said, even Usman struggled to stop his takedowns.

Strickland ending ‘Fluffy’ Hernandez’s long winning streak last time out once again demonstrated just how tricky his style can be to deal with. Surprisingly ‘Fluffy’ didn’t make much use of his grappling and so was lured into dealing with Strickland’s minimalist striking that works almost exclusively at times off his cultured jab, while using his finely-honed version of the ‘Philly Shell’ defense to deal with incoming blows via parries and shoulder rolls. It’s a tried-and-tested approach that generally lacks stopping power, but thanks to his dependable cardio and toughness has a knack of frustrating and wearing down opponents over time, enabling him to either win on the scorecards or find a finish when they run out of steam. Last time out though Strickland added a little extra spice by sneaking in a knee to the body that paved the way for a third round TKO stoppage. Strickland is also a capable wrestler, has solid takedown defense and has never been submitted, but his knees haven’t been in great shape for a long time and so he tends to steer away from engaging in the wrestling department.

If Strickland can force a striking battle here then I think his style could be well-suited to causing Khamzat problems over time. It’s just hard to imagine that Khamzat’s aggressive wrestling expertise won’t lead to takedowns and suffocating control though. I think Strickland’s durability and experience will enable him to make it to the final bell, but it’ll end in a dominant decision win for the champion.

Khamzat Chimaev to win by decision

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Joshua Van vs. Tatsuro Taira Prediction

Joshua Van will make his first flyweight title defense in the co-main event against Tatsuro Taira, who won both his fights last year.

It could be argued that Van hasn’t quite sealed his champion status yet due to the fact he won the title as a result of former champ Alexandre Pantoja suffering a freak injury just 26 seconds into their fight. Still, the 24-year-old Van undoubtedly impressed during his five-fight winning streak prior to that. he’s a fast, athletic striker with very sharp, technical boxing ability and he has a real knack for increasing the tempo and intensity of his output over time. That can lead to him building up a real head of steam in the later rounds, while still maintaining his accuracy. He’s also shown signs of a developing offensive wrestling game, but in general his ground game is certainly not as strong as his striking and so he’ll lean on solid takedown defense to try to keep the fight upright.

The 26-year-old Taira is also a talented fighter who has managed to compile an 8-1 record in the Octagon so far, and is coming off a TKO win over former champ Brandon Moreno. He’s the bigger fighter here, enjoying the benefits of a 2″ height and 5″ reach advantage. Taira has similarities to Van on the feet in that he also combines athleticism with accuracy, but he’s more of a kickboxer and prefers to patiently pick out his strikes rather than go for the volume approach. Taira is more well-rounded though as he can land takedowns and has a skilled grappling game with fast scrambling ability and a proven submission threat that’s delivered eight finishes.

Van’s more active offense on the feet could be a big factor here, but I think Taira’s broader skill-set will be the difference maker, enabling him to mix in takedowns and threaten with his superior ground-game to deliver a 3rd round submission finish.

Tatsuro Taira to win by submission in Rd3

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Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta Prediction

Alexander Volkov is currently ranked No.2 in the heavyweight division after winning five of his last six fights and now faces Waldo Cortes-Acosta, who is placed at No.4 after racked up three stoppage wins in a row.

A couple of years ago Volkov was on the verge of title contention after a four-fight winning streak, but a split-decision loss to Ciryl Gane halted his momentum. Last time out he got back on track with a split-decision win over Jailton Almeida, but it was far from a vintage performance as he was taken down and controlled for much of the fight, only for his opponent’s lack of activity on top to ultimately costing him the fight in the eyes of two judges. The 37-year-old Volkov’s always been at his best on the feet where he can put his large 6ft 7″ frame and 80″ reach to good use with his seasoned kickboxing from range. He’s not the fastest or hardest-hitting heavyweight, though bulking up closer to the heavyweight limit in recent years has made his strikes more impactful. Regardless of that though he does a good job of steadily breaking down his opponents over time with straight punches down the pipe alongside solid kicks, and he generally stays defensively sound too. His ground game is more limited though, with some basic offensive wrestling and takedown defense, and he can struggle to get off his back if taken down.

The 34-year-old Cortes-Acosta is a former baseball player who switched to MMA a decade ago and has been competing in the UFC for the past 3-and-a-half years. He’s gained a lot of experience during that period by being very active, compiling a 10-2 UFC run. He still doesn’t have a particularly broad skill-set, but Cortes-Acosta has made good use of solid boxing fundamentals and low kicks. He works well behind a dependable jab that does a lot of the work, while also having nice speed and footwork, together with a good chin. As time has gone on though he’s really started to sit down on his punches more and demonstrated considerable power, taking him from a decision machine early in his UFC run, to a notable finisher in the past year or so.

Volkov’s a veteran of the game with 50 fights to his name and while he’ll have to be mindful of Cortes-Acosta’s speed and power, I think the Russian’s assured kickboxing from range will win out over three rounds for a decision victory.

Alexander Volkov to win by decision

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Sean Brady vs. Joaquin Buckley Prediction

Sean Brady is coming off a TKO loss that ended a three-fight winning streak and now fights Joaquin Buckley, whose decision defeat last time out ended a six-fight unbeaten run.

The 33-year-old Brady holds a solid 8-2 record overall in the UFC, beating the likes of former champ Leon Edwards, Gilbert Burns, Kelvin Gastelum and Michael Chiesa along the way. Brady is a physically strong fighter with good cardio who has the wrestling ability to secure takedowns and control the action on top, while his grappling is a strong suit with good back takes and four submission wins in the UFC. Meanwhile, Brady has decent striking fundamentals, but he lacks the speed, power and creativity to be a big threat there, and both his career losses have come via TKO during his UFC run. However, he he does have the option to switch from striking to strong clinch-work.

The 32-year-old Buckley has gone 11-5 overall in the UFC, but in the past three years has seen an uptick in form, going 6-1, while beating notable veterans like Colby Covington, Stephen Thompson and Vicente Luque. Buckley is a muscular striker with dynamic, explosive offense and genuine finishing power, with 15 of his 21 career wins ending via strikes. After some early ups and downs in the UFC, Buckley did well to try to address some of his weaknesses, pacing himself better and even showing some offensive wrestling too. That being said, Kamaru Usman schooled him in the wrestling department last time out, and it’s also worth noting he has lost via strikes 4 times in his career.

Buckley is a menace in this fight for as long as he can keep it standing. However, given that Brady is coming off a 1st round TKO loss I’d expect him to be even more determined to take this fight to the mat early, and from there he should be in complete control, leading to a 2nd round submission finish.

Sean Brady to win by submission in Rd2

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King Green vs. Jeremy Stephens Prediction

Opening up the main card will be a clash of veterans as King Green comes in off back-to-back wins to fight Jeremy Stephens, who unexpectedly returned to the UFC last year, only to suffer a decision loss.

Stephens, who turns 40 later this month, has actually only won once in his last 10 MMA fights over the past eight years or so. He’s faired better in other combat sports though as he had a 3-1 run in dirty boxing that saw him TKO two other UFC veterans, Eddie Alvarez and Jimmy Rivera, while he also fought to a draw in a pro-boxing match against Jose Aldo too. Those disciplines played to his strengths as a tough, gritty battler with capable boxing and significant power in his hands that has delivered 19 finishes from 29 career victories in MMA. He’s beaten some good opponents over the years, but his UFC form has always been patchy, and became worse over time. In fact, the reality is that he’s lost no less than 22 times over the course of his career. It’s not that he has one specific weakness, but numerous opponents have been able to best him technically on the feet or on the mat over three rounds, and he’s not immune to being finished via strikes or submissions.

Green is also 39-years-old, but while he’s also had mixed results over the years, he has shown he can still pick up some respectable wins at this late stage in his career, including a good TKO win over the much younger Daniel Zellhuber last time out. Green is a crafty striker who can outfox opponents with his unorthodox style and good counter-striking, while he can operate on the mat too when required. Age is catching up to him though, so his speed and reaction time is gradually eroding, which is a problem for someone who relies on his reflexes when implementing his shoulder rolls, parries and head movement to stay out of harms way. As such he’s been getting caught more in recent years, and that’s led to four of his last five losses coming via strikes.

Green’s defensive style is getting increasingly risky as time has gone on, but I think he’ll be able to see Stephens power shots coming and generally prove to be the better striking technician of the two in order to emerge with a decision win.

King Green to win by decision

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UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland Prelims

(Predicted winners in bold)

Ateba Gautier vs. Osman Diaz
Joel Álvarez vs. Yaroslav Amosov
Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rębecki
Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon
Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio
Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis
Baisangur Susurkaev vs. Djorden Santos
Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa

MMA Writer

Ross Cole

Ross Cole is one of the most prolific mixed martial arts writers in the world.

Having written more than 22,000 MMA news stories for MMA Insight, which he founded in 2009 as a way to channel his passion for the sport of mixed martial arts.

Few people know the UFC and the sport of MMA like Ross, and he has built a solid reputation for being one of the best MMA tipsters in the world.

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