UFC On ESPN: Covington vs. Buckley Predictions

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UFC On ESPN 63 takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!

UFC On ESPN 63 Predictions

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Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley Prediction

It’s been a year since Colby Covington’s latest attempt to win the welterweight title came up short with a decision loss to Leon Edwards. Now he’ll get back on the saddle against Joaquin Buckley, who comes in on a five-fight winning streak.

Having now had three failed title shots, there are question marks as to how motivated the now 36-year-old Covington is at this stage in his career. At his best Covington pushed an incredible pace with a striking approach that made up for his lack of power and finesse with sheer volume and work-rate, making the most of his seemingly endless cardio and good durability. That intensity seems to have dwindled away more recently though and he looked unusually hesitant to engage last time out. Covington does also have a strong wrestling background and was able to make use of that to help grind out wins on the mat and in the clinch during his rise up the ranks, but again we don’t see as much of it these days.

While Covington appears to be fading, the 30-year-old Buckley is on the rise, shaking off the more inconsistent form of earlier in his UFC run to put together a solid winning streak that includes victories over respected opponents like Stephen Thompson and Vicente Luque – both of who he finished via strikes. There’s no doubt it’s his dynamic, explosive striking that’s his greatest asset, aided by the fact he’s a physical specimen, with a compact, muscular frame that delivers both power and speed. All that muscle means cardio is a concern, but Buckley has adapted his style to pace himself better during his UFC run and he’s also shown some respectable offensive wrestling chops, while also working to improve his takedown defense too.

Buckley’s power and speed advantage gives him a major edge on the feet here, and he’s a far more versatile striker than Covington too. If Covington can rediscover his former drive, push the pace and commit to his wrestling then things could well swing in his favor, but the fact he accepted this fight on short notice and looked jaded in his last fight doesn’t inspire confidence. So I’ll take Buckley to fire on all cylinders on the feet and emerge with a third round TKO victory.

Prediction: Joaquin Buckley to win by TKO in Rd3.

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Cub Swanson vs. Billy Quarantillo Prediction

Cub Swanson and Billy Quarantillo come into their fight in a similar spot, having both been stuck in a cycle of win-one, lose-one for a number of fights.

Credit to Swanson for continuing to be somewhat competitive at 41-years-old – quite a feat in the fast and furious featherweight division. Time has of course slowed him down to an extent so he’s only fighting once a year these days and isn’t as relentless with his offense, but he is still athletic and dynamic for his age with a versatile striking arsenal that has to be respected. He’s less durable than he once was though and on the mat, while he’s a capable scrambler, submission defense has always been an issue for him.

Quarantillo is starting to get up there in years too at 36, but still has the ability to push a hard pace and swarm opponents with strikes, while also having a good chin, which helps makes up for the fact he’s not the most technical fighter and doesn’t have the best defense. Meanwhile, Quarantillo’s offensive wrestling is ok and he does offer a submission threat on the mat.

I’m a bit torn on this pick. If it was a few years ago I’d be leaning towards Swanson as he’s certainly the better striking technician of the two and was happy to fight at a good tempo. His age now makes it harder to imagine he’ll be able to match Quarantillo’s pace for 15 minutes though, so while he might start off well enough I think it’s Quarantillo who will eventually take over to emerge with a decision victory.

Prediction: Billy Quarantilllo to win by decision.

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Manel Kape vs. Bruno Gustavo da Silva Prediction

Manel Kape’s four-fight winning streak was halted by Muhammad Mokaev in July and now he takes on Bruno Gustavo da Silva, whose own four-fight unbeaten run remains intact heading into this fight.

The 31-year-old Kape is a fast, dynamic striker who wields big power for the flyweight division, but doesn’t over-use it and tends to pick and choose his moments to strike. That can be a good thing if used correctly, but at times he is guilty of not staying active enough and being overly reliant on one big punch, flying knee or head kick to win fights. Kape has good takedown defense, and though he doesn’t often use it he has decent wrestling too, and earlier in his career he was able to secure some submission wins.

The 34-year-old Silva took a while to get going in the UFC, suffering two decision losses and a no-contest in his first three fights. However, he’s not only won his last four fights, but has also finished each inside of two rounds by either strikes or submission. That speaks to the fact that Silva is a well-rounded fighter who utilizes boxing fundamentals on the feet with good power, has respectable wrestling and a good submission game.

Silva feels like a solid but not spectacular all-rounder, while Kape is genuinely gifted in the striking department, but is capable of underutilizing that at times. In the end I favor Kape to trouble Silva on the feet and find that big moment to end the fight in the second round.

Prediction: Manel Kape to win by TKO in Rd2.

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Vitor Petrino vs. Dustin Jacoby Prediction

Vitor Petrino won his first four fights in the promotion, but suffered a submission loss last time out. Now he’ll take on Dustin Jacoby, who is in the midst of a slump in form, with just one win to show from his last five Octagon appearances.

The 27-year-old Petrino managed to go undefeated in his first 11 pro-fights up until that swift submission defeat against Anthony Smith back in May. He had came into the UFC at a time when he was still a work-in-progress, but showed promise with his powerful strikes in close and a nice ability to land on the counter, although he doesn’t have the highest output overall. Petrino has good ground-and-pound on the mat and will look for takedowns at times, but his decision-making and defense can be questionable and lead him into trouble. Another issue for Petrino is that he tends to lean towards power and strength, which can drain his gas tank.

The 36-year-old Jacoby flopped on both his first UFC stint and subsequent run in Bellator, but after a stint in Glory kickboxing he seized a 2nd opportunity in the Octagon with both hands by going unbeaten in his first seven fights. His form has dipped since though, culminating in his first KO loss in MMA last time out. That underlined that durability has become a concern for him, but he remains a solid kickboxer with significant punching power and good leg kicks, which could come in handy against Petrino, who has shown some vulnerability in that area.

Petrino’s skill-set still feels a bit rough-and-ready, but he’s almost a decade younger than Jacoby and has the confidence and power to take the fight to him and put his weakening chin at risk, so I’ll take him to win by TKO in the 2^nd round.

Prediction: Vitor Petrino to win by TKO in Rd2.

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Adrian Yanes vs. Daniel Marcos Prediction

A TKO win in May steadied the ship for Adrian Yanez after losing back-to-back fights in 2023. Now he moves on to fight the undefeated Daniel Marcos, who has three wins and a no-contest in the UFC so far.

The 31-year-old Yanez is a talented, high-tempo striker who likes to close the distance quickly to land fast, crisp and flowing boxing combinations, while he can mix in the occasional head kick too. He has proven power, having finished five of his six UFC wins so far via strikes, but Yanez’s emphasis on pressing forward can lead him into eating more strikes than he should though and both of his losses last year were by TKO. Meanwhile, Yanez has capable grappling if required, but has a clear preference to keep the fight on the feet.

The also 31-year-old Marcos is an athletic striker too who is perhaps not as slick as Yanez, but has good technique, plenty of power and the confidence that comes with having gone 16-fights into his career without suffering a loss. He also fights at a good pace from start to finish and also prefers to keep the action upright where he’s more of a threat, which shouldn’t be a problem in this match-up.

This should be a close, competitive stand-up fight between two good strikers, but Marcos feels a bit more consistent in terms of his overall form, durability and work-rate from round-to-round at the moment, so I’ll take him to emerge with a hard-fought decision victory here.

Prediction: Daniel Marcos to win by decision.

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Navajo Stirling vs. Tuco Tokkos Prediction

Recent Contender Series winner Navajo Stirling makes his debut in the main card opener against Tuco Tokkos, who lost his UFC debut back in May.

The 27-year-old Stirling comes from a muay thai background and has transitioned to MMA relatively recently, with his pro debut coming just a couple of years ago. He’s taken to the sport well though with a 5-0 record so far though, with four of those wins coming via strikes, including a 2nd round KO finish in his Contender Series appearance in September. He shows good athleticism and backs that up with solid striking ability and good power, but he hasn’t really faced any particularly notable opponents so far.

The 34-year-old Tokkos is on the very fringes of the UFC roster after losing in his promotional debut and also having a patchy 10-4 record overall. He also faltered upon signing for Bellator back in 2019, exiting after losing his first two fights, while he was also KO’d in his first and only appearance on the Road to UFC series in 2022. Tokkos is a striker who likes to brawl and throw power shots, but focuses on that too much rather than being mindful of his defensive responsibilities. He did also manage to get a couple of submissions wins on the regional circuit, but was tapped out in under a round in the Octagon last time out.

Given his relative inexperience it’s clear that Stirling needs to be given time to develop and this is the kind of favorable matchmaking that suggests the UFC are willing to do that. I’d expect Stirling to pick apart Tokkos pretty comfortably here and may even get a TKO finish within the first five minutes.

Prediction: Navajo Stirling to win by TKO in Rd1.

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UFC On ESPN 63 Prelims

(Predicted winners in bold)

Michael Johnson vs. Ottman Azaitar
Joel Álvarez vs. Drakkar Klose
Sean Woodson vs. Fernando Padilla
Miranda Maverick vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth
Davey Grant vs. Ramon Taveras
Josefine Lindgren Knutsson vs. Piera Rodriguez