UFC Fight Night 249 takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, United States  and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!
UFC Fight Night 249 Predictions
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Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas Prediction
Back in 2019 Amanda Ribas beat Mackenzie Dern by unanimous decision and now they are heading into a headlining rematch at a time when Dern is coming off a unanimous decision victory over Loopy Godinez, while Ribas is looking to bounce back from a loss on the scorecards to Rose Namajunas.
Ribas was actually the first woman to have beaten Dern in the cage and showed how she’s less of a threat when she’s unable to get the fight to the mat, and Ribas also showed she wasn’t scared to take her down too. And though the now 31-year-old Dern has far more experience under her belt, some of the same basic issues still remain. She has certainly attempted to improve upon her striking over time and she’s always had some raw power to work with, but she’s still lacking in terms of her technique, speed and fluidity. As such she has at times fallen into the trap of just looking to brawl, but due to her poor defense that’s often gone badly and left her leaning heavily on her natural toughness to survive. Dern has acknowledged that she needs to evolve from that style, but time will tell. The other issue is that she’s still not overcome her problems getting fights to the mat consistently as her wrestling remains suspect, but she does remain a very talented BJJ player if the fight does somehow end up on the floor.
The also 31-year-old Ribas is a gutsy competitor who always gives her all, but hasn’t evolved a great deal over the years, and has been stuck in a pattern of ‘win one, lose one’ for some time. She’s not the most technical striker, but she is cleaner and faster than Dern and can be aggressive. That being said, she is also hittable and her chin isn’t as solid as her opponent’s, having been finished three times in her career. Ribas does make effective use of her judo ability and operates nicely in the clinch, while she is also a confident grappler who can work for submissions, and has never been tapped out.
Overall I don’t feel that there’s been enough evolution in Dern’s game to change the outcome here, with Ribas still seeming to have the edge in the striking department, while also having the option to take the fight to the mat on her terms if she chooses too, while Dern might struggle in her attempts to do likewise. So I’ll take Ribas to win again by decision.
Prediction: Amanda Ribas to win by decision.
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Carlston Harris Prediction
A split-decision loss in his only fight of 2024 means Santiago Ponzinibbio has now won just twice in his last seven fights since 2021. Carlston Harris actually joined the UFC that same year and has gone 4-2 so far, but is coming off a 90 second KO loss to Khaos Williams last June.
The 38-year-old Ponzinibbio is a seasoned veteran who at his peak was firing on all cylinders during a seven-fight winning streak in the Octagon. However, some serious health issues then resulted in more than two years out of the sport and he’s never been quite the same fighter since. ‘The Argentine Dagger’ has a pressure-based kickboxing style, although he’s not quite as quick and unrelenting as he once was. Nevertheless he still has respectable power and attacks well in combination with punches and kicks, and has a capable ground game if he’s forced to use it.
The 37-year-old Harris is also an experienced veteran, although he only arrived in the UFC when he was already comfortably into his 30’s. He’s still in good condition for his age and likes to use that to his advantage to gradually wear down opponents, particularly with his clinch-work, takedowns, and solid wrestling control, while he’s also a threat via chokes. He’s a willing but awkward striker too and will have a 3″ reach advantage here, but he can be careless and his chin could be a concern given his recent KO defeat coming just a couple of years after also being knocked out by Shavkat Rakhmonov.
Ponzinibbio’s recent form is concerning, but it’s worth noting that three of his last four losses were only by split-decision and against respectable opponents in Geoff Neal, Michel Pereira and Muslim Salikhov. I would expect Ponzinibbio to the be cleaner, more technical striker here, and given that he also manages distance quite well and has also never been tapped out on the mat I think he might just be able to keep this one standing for the most part and eek out a close decision victory.
Prediction: Santiago Ponzinibbio to win by decision.
Cesar Almeida vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan Prediction
Cesar Almeida has gone 2-1 in the UFC so far since joining from the Contender Series and now fights Abdul Razak Alhassan, who has only mustered two wins from his last eight Octagon appearances.
Despite being 36-years-old, Almeida only has 7 MMA fights to his name. However, he does also have an extensive background in kickboxing, where his claim to fame is once having beaten Alex Pereira on the scorecards, although that was back in 2013 and Pereira had also beaten him earlier that year. As you’d expect then, Almeida is a skilled technical kickboxer who has good punching power and dangerous kicks both to the head and to the legs. He’s not as naturally potent a striker as his rival Pereira though and he can be caught at times too. Meanwhile he’s clearly tried to develop his ground game, but it’s still very much a work-in-progress, and it’s hard to make up the ground in that regard when transitioning to the sport relatively late on in his career.
The 39-year-old Alhassan is at the tail-end of his career, but he still remains an explosive striker with knockout power who likes to start fast and try to find an early finish. Alhassan tends to favor power over clean technique though, and his early exertion takes a toll on his fairly limited gas tank. Meanwhile, Alhassan has a background in judo that he rarely uses, but he can work from the clinch and wrestle at times.
You can never completely count out Alhassan due to his finishing power and durability, but Almeida is the better striking technician here and should be equipped to deal with an early onslaught from his opponent and gradually pick him apart, leading to a third round TKO finish.
Prediction: Cesar Almeida to win by TKO in Rd3.
Chris Curtis vs. Roman Kopylov Prediction
Both Chris Curtis and Roman Kopylov went 1-1 in the Octagon in 2024, and their overall UFC records are similar too, with Curtis going 5-3 (+1nc), while Kopylov is 5-3. With that being said, Curtis has been more inconsistent lately, alternating between wins and losses, whereas Kopylov has only lost once in his last six UFC appearances.
A man of many promotions, Curtis arrived in the UFC fairly late on in his career, but with a lot of experience under his belt. He’s a crafty veteran in the striking department with tight, compact boxing ability that’ll see him work well to the body as well as the head, while also being sharp on the counter and utilizing the Philly Shell defense to good effect. Curtis also has good takedown-defense and does well to get back to his feet when he has to, while he also has reliable cardio too. And despite having over 40 fights, Curtis has consistently proven to be hard to finish throughout his career, with only one loss by both strikes and submission on his record.
The 33-year-old Kopylov has a dangerous kickboxing style that’s enabled him to finish 11 of his 13 career victories inside the distance. Both his punches and kicks are proven fight-enders, and he also has a knack for stopping opponents in their tracks with body shots, accounting for 4 of his wins. He’s also never been stopped himself via strikes, but two of his losses in the UFC so far have come via submission, so he’ll do his best to keep the fight upright.
Kopylov is the faster of the two here and has the more versatile, dynamic striking arsenal, so I’ll take him to win the stand-up battle, but Curtis is a wily enough competitor to force him to earn his win via the scorecards rather than a finish.
Prediction: Roman Kopylov to win by decision.
Christian Rodriguez vs. Austin Bashi Prediction
Christian Rodriguez’s four-fight winning streak was ended by Julian Erosa in July of last year and he’ll now fight a new Contender Series recruit in the undefeated Austin Bashi, who holds a 13-0 record.
Rodriguez won’t be intimidated by Bashi’s hot-prospect status and undefeated record since the 27-year-old has made a bit of a name for himself as a prospect-killer during his time in the UFC so far, handing the likes of Raul Rosas Jr, Cameron Saaiman and Isaac Dulgarian their first career losses. Rodriguez isn’t a particularly flashy fighter, but he’s a solid all-rounder with good striking fundamentals both offensively and defensively. He also has the cardio to consistently push the pace, while still keeping a cool head in the heat of the moment. He’s capable enough on the mat too and does offer a submission threat, although he was submitted himself for the first time in his last Octagon outing.
The 23-year-old Bashi was a hyped prospect even before arriving on the Contender Series in September of last year, and indeed the UFC had actually approached him several times before, which he turned down in order to gain more experience on the regional circuit first. Bashi is an athletic, high-energy operator who has the cardio and determination to repeatedly go for takedown attempts and will look to wear down his opponents with his relentless pressure. Once on the mat he’s a clear submission threat, with four of his last five wins coming via rear-naked choke and he’ll utilize ground-and-pound too. Meanwhile his striking is fairly competent, though not as convincing as his mat work.
Given Rodriguez’s previous success in match-ups of this nature this is a potential early banana skin for Bashi in his UFC debut. Bashi isn’t a raw prospect like Rosas Jr for example though, and while he won’t have it all his own way here and will find it challenging to wear down Rodriguez, I do think his ground game will enable him to get the better of his opponent to win by decision.
Prediction: Austin Bashi to win by decision.
Punahale Soriano vs. Uros Medic Prediction
After having lost four of his previous five fights, Punahele Soriano got a much-needed win in his only fight last year and now takes on Uros Medic, whose 1st round TKO win last year takes his overall UFC record to 4-2.
The 32-year-old Soriano’s return to the win column coincided with dropping down to 170lbs for the first time, so he’ll be hoping to continue to build momentum in his new division here. Soriano is a striker who favors a brawling style of boxing, getting in close to throw heavy leather in search of a finish, while relying on his durability to withstand the blows coming back his way. He will also strike from the clinch, and last time out he served up a reminder that he can wrestle too, opening up opportunities for good ground-and-pound.
The 31-year-old Medic also has an aggressive striking style, although as more of a kickboxer he doesn’t operate at such close quarters and likes to mix spinning attacks into his offensive onslaughts. Medic has demonstrated his punching power to deliver finishes in multiple weight classes, and has actually yet to have a fight go the distance in his 12-fight career. However, Medic’s takedown defense isn’t the best and both of his UFC losses so far have come via submission.
On the feet both fighters can certainly hurt the other here, but I think Medic’s range management and broader range of offensive weapons may well give him the edge. Meanwhile, If Soriano goes to his wrestling again then that certainly increases his chances of victory. He’s generally more of a slugger though and I could see him being drawn into that here, only to come off second-best as Medic lands a fight-ending blow in the second round.
Prediction: Uros Medic to win by TKO in Rd2.
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UFC Fight Night 249 Prelims
(Predicted winners in bold)
Marco Tulio vs. Ihor Potieria
Thiago Moisés vs. Trey Ogden
Magomed Gadzhiyasulov vs. Bruno Lopes
Jose Johnson vs. Felipe Bunes
Nurullo Aliev vs. Joe Solecki
Ernesta KareckaitÄ— vs. Nicolle Caliari
Preston Parsons vs. Jacobe Smith
Fatima Kline vs. Victoria Dudakova
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