UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman Predictions

UFC Fight Night 281: Du Plessis vs. Usman takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, United States. – and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below, and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!

Dricus du Plessis vs. Kamaru Usman Prediction

Former middleweight champion Dricus du Plessis lost the belt to Khamzat Chimaev last year and now returns to fight ex-welterweight champ Kamaru Usman, who is coming off a decision win over Joaquin Buckley down at 170lbs.

Prior to his last fight, Du Plessis managed to string together nine wins in a row in the UFC, including two successful defenses of the 185lb title. However, Chimaev then dominated their title clash 11 months ago, easily managing to take him down and control him for the vast majority of the fight, though without finding a finish along the way. The 32-year-old DDP does actually have a capable offensive ground game, with submissions accounting for 11 of his 23 career wins, but his wrestling tends to rely more on outmuscling his opponents with his powerful physique rather than utilizing clean technique, and his takedown defense has never been a strong suit. Truth be told he’s not very technical on the feet either, but his brute-force approach to striking via marching forward with bursts of power punches and the occasional kick has been surprisingly successful against other top-tier 185lb’ers, including the likes of Israel Adesanya, Sean Strickland (x2) and Robert Whittaker. And despite appearing to be gassed at times, DDP has a knack of managing to fight through that and still maintain a good volume of strikes, while he’s also proven to be ruggedly durable too.

At his peak the 39-year-old Usman was a prime example of a dominant champion, with his well-rounded skill-set and excellent conditioning taking him to five successful defenses of the welterweight title during an overall 15-fight winning streak in the UFC. However, a late KO loss to Leon Edwards finally ended his reign in 2022, and he’d then go on to lose their rematch by majority decision. At the time there were concerns that age was catching up to him, particularly as he’d been dealing with knee issues that may well have been limiting his ability to use the dominant wrestling that had been a major hallmark of his game over the years. Usman was still eager to compete against the best though and proved it by moving up to fight the feared Khamzat Chimaev, putting in a respectable performance to only lose by majority decision. After a year-and-a-half out he returned in the summer of last year back down at welterweight against a striker in Buckley, and appeared to turn back the clock with a convincing display of his wrestling prowess, suggesting that the veteran still has some tread left on the tires. Meanwhile, Usman is still a competent boxer too, though he tends to rely more on volume-based fundamentals rather than show-stopping power.

Even at this late stage in his career Usman remains a challenging opponent for anyone, but he’s some distance beyond his prime now and his knees are still worn out, so up at 185lbs I’m just not convinced he’ll find the same success as Khamzat did last time out. Instead I feel DDP’s size, strength and power, together with his ability to keep pushing in the later rounds, will enable him to fight his way to a decision victory.

Dricus du Plessis to win by decision

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Jared Cannonier vs. Christian Leroy Duncan Prediction

Jared Cannonier has lost three of his last four fights, while by way of contrast Christian Leroy Duncan is on a four-fight winning streak.

Cannonier has now reached the ripe old age of 42, and while he’s been losing more fights than he’s winning lately, those defeats have been against high-level opponents like Nassourdine Imavov, Ciao Borralho and Michael ‘Venom’ Page. Cannonier remains a respectable athlete and is physically strong for his age, but as you might expect his speed, reactions and work-rate have taken a bit of a hit over time. He still has solid striking technique though, including solid punching power and punishing low kicks, while he can also mix in the occasional takedown to land heavy ground-and-pound. Cannonier still has decent durability, but while only Imavov has finished him in recent years, he was dropped a couple of times early against Gregory Rodrigues last year before battling back to win in the end.

The 30-year-old Duncan has been in fine form over the past year-and-a-half, and his decision win over Roman Dolidze last time out took him to No.12 in the rankings. Duncan is a dynamic striker with creative flair, and has shown an ability to land eye-catching techniques with solid accuracy during his current winning run. That includes KO’ing Eryk Anders with a spinning back elbow last year and then following that up with a spinning backfist KO of Marco Tulio next time out. That’s part of a career-long trend though as he has two other spinning-based finishes, along with others like a flying knee TKO, while his elbows have also proven to be fight-enders. Duncan’s offensive-focus does leave some gaps defensively though, and he tends not to do so well when he’s being pressured, but even so he’s only lost twice in 16 career bouts and has never been finished.

Cannonier always has a chance, but I think at this age he’s vulnerable to a dynamic, unpredictable striker like Duncan who will be a threat with all eight limbs, leading him to a 2nd round TKO victory.

Christian Leroy Duncan to win by TKO in Rd2

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Chase Hooper vs. Mitch Ramirez Prediction

Both Chase Hooper and Mitch Ramirez come into this fight having been TKO’d in their last two Octagon appearances.

The 26-year-old Hooper had a mixed bag of results early on in his UFC run, but he’d eventually settled into a five-fight winning streak, beating veterans like Jim Miller and Clay Guida along the way. However, while Hooper has proven to be a talented grappler along the way with a proven submission game and respectable ground-and-pound, it’s clear that striking comes less naturally to him as he has an awkward style, lacks power, and is poor defensively. Together with a questionable chin that’s led him to two 1st round TKO losses in a row, adding to another 1st round defeat to strikes earlier in his UFC run.

The 33-year-old Ramirez is also going through a tough time at the moment in the Octagon, but has less evidence to prove that he’s got what it takes to get back on track. Ramirez fought on the Contender Series back in 2023 at a time when he had a 7-0 record on the regional scene, but he’d lose by 2nd round TKO on the show, which doesn’t seem so bad when you realize his opponent was a future star, Carlos Prates. A subsequent win in the LFA promotion led to Ramirez getting a UFC call-up, but he’s since been TKO’d by both Thiago Moises and Mike Davis. Ramirez isn’t the most convincing striker and his durability is a concern, but he will carry more power than Hooper, and while he’s not too much of a submission threat, he has proven to have solid defense on the mat.

Hooper’s weak striking defense is troubling, but I think he can control the fight if he commits to his grappling, though he may have to settle for a win on the scorecards in the end.

Chase Hooper to win by decision

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Tabatha Ricci vs. Fatima Kline Prediction

Tabatha Ricci has been alternating between wins and losses for the past four fights, while Fatima Kline has gone 3-1 since joining the UFC two years ago.

The 31-year-old Ricci is a short, but physically strong strawweight with a respectable all-round skill-set. She has solid boxing that benefits from her good speed and volume, but she does lack stopping power, with just two TKO wins on her record. Ricci has a background in judo and so she likes to clinch up and work takedowns from there, while she’s a capable grappler too. Again she’s not much of a finisher on the mat though, but ‘Baby Shark’ has gone 7-3 in fights that go the distance.

The 26-year-old Kline arrived in the UFC in the summer of 2024 with a 6-0 record, but lost her promotional debut to Jasmine Jasudavicius up at flyweight. She then dropped back down to strawweight and has since put together a couple of TKO victories, while last time out she beat veteran campaigner Angela Hill on the scorecards. Kline is an experienced, well-versed grappler, and though she only has one submission on her 9-1 record, she is also a threat with ground-and-pound too. Kline also has enough wrestling chops to help get the fight to the mat in the first place, while she’s also a capable striker too and has been finding success with head kicks recently, finishing Melissa Martinez with one and also dropping Hill too.

Ricci is a solid enough fighter, but I think Kline is better overall and is still at an age where she’s improving, so I’ll take her to win by decision.

Fatima Kline to win by decision

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Tommy McMillen vs. Alberto Montes Prediction

Tommy McMillen’s 1st round TKO victory in his UFC debut in April took his career record to an unblemished 10-0. Now he’ll open this weekend’s main card against Alberto Montes, who won his UFC debut by submission.

The 28-year-old McMillen ran through all his regional opponents in less than a round, but had a tougher time on the Contender Series, clearly coming off second-best in the opening round before battling back to win by decision. A quick win in his UFC debut will have given him a welcome confidence boost after that though. McMillen is big for a featherweight at 6ft, and so will enjoy a 5″ height and reach advantage this weekend. He’s a high-output, aggressive pressure striker, but can tend to neglect his defense duties, which he hasn’t been fully punished for yet. Despite his ‘Gun’ nickname he’s not just head-shotting opponents though as he’s also able to work from the clinch and will look for takedowns, while five of his nine stoppage victories have come via submission.

The 32-year-old Montes holds a 12-1 career record, but his journey hasn’t been an easy one as he had knee injury woes along the way that resulted in lengthy lay-offs and held him back from reaching the UFC earlier. Montes has proven to be a bit of a grappling specialist, with all but one of his eight stoppage wins have come via submission. In particular he’s been very effective with anaconda and d’arce choke submissions, accounting for five of his last six victories, including in his UFC debut against Ricky Turcios. Montes isn’t a one-trick pony though as in addition to having other submissions in his black-belt jiu-jitsu arsenal arsenal he also has prior karate and muay thai experience and has good kicks, while he can mix in some wrestling too.

McMillen’s size advantage and higher output could play a factor here, but I think Montes’ cleaner striking will find success against his opponent’s wilder attacks and questionable defense. And I feel Montes will also be the better of the two if that leads to the fight eventually spilling on to the mat, so I’ll take Montes to win by submission in the second round.

Alberto Montes to win by submission in Rd2

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UFC Fight Night 281: Du Plessis vs. Usman Prelims

(Predicted winners in bold)

Austin Bashi vs. Jose Miguel
DelgadoJean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Ko Seok-hyeon
Levi Rodrigues Jr. vs. Felipe Franco
Alden Coria vs. Stewart Nicoll
RJ Harris vs. Alvin Hines
Anna Melisano vs. Dione Barbosa

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MMA Writer

Ross Cole

Ross Cole is one of the most prolific mixed martial arts writers in the world.

Having written more than 22,000 MMA news stories for MMA Insight, which he founded in 2009 as a way to channel his passion for the sport of mixed martial arts.

Few people know the UFC and the sport of MMA like Ross, and he has built a solid reputation for being one of the best MMA tipsters in the world.

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