Ended UFC Fight Night 285: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the Golden 1 Center in Sacremento, California, United States. – and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below, and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!
Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues Prediction
Anthony Hernandez’s eight-fight winning streak came to an end with a TKO loss to Sean Strickland back in February and now he returns to face Gregory Rodrigues, who has put together three wins in a row.
The 32-year-old ‘Fluffy’ Hernandez had been considered to be the favourite to beat Strickland last time out, and with good reason as he’d been dominating other recent opponents like Brendan Allen and Roman Dolidze by pushing an exhausting pace all-fight long. That’s been particularly true on the mat, where he’s at his best with relentless, high-tempo grappling that’s proven to be very effective at either wearing out opponents or opening up submission opportunities. He’s also active on the feet with high-volume striking, though that’s often more just to keep his foes busy while waiting to set up takedown opportunities. The problem against Strickland was that he couldn’t find a way to get him to the mat, and always looked likely to come off second-best when forced into a purely striking based battle. He’ll still have been disappointed to be TKO’d in the third round though, but he’s only ever been stopped one or time in his career by strikes, in addition to a submission loss, and has won all three of his fights that went to the scorecards. Still, there is a slight concern that he may be susceptible to body shots.
The 34-year-old Rodrigues makes for an interesting opponent here as he has a high-level background in BJJ and can wrestle too, but he typically has a strong preference for going to war on the feet instead. Rodrigues has good boxing technique and explosive power, as evidenced by two of his latest three victories having come via 1st round KO, leaving him with 12 career finishes via strikes. Rodrigues puts his opponents under pressure by constantly stalking them while looking to unleash big strikes, but he can be quite hittable at times and has been stopped four times by T(KO) over the years. Also, as a muscular middleweight with a high-energy style, his cardio can suffer later on in fights, which could become an issue over five rounds.
This is an intriguing match-up, and one where Hernandez will be eager not to find himself in the same scenario as he did last time out against Strickland, as being forced into a striking battle against a much harder-hitting fighter like Rodrigues could quickly go badly. Rodrigues will also be a tricky opponent to deal with on the mat as well with his grappling prowess, but Hernandez does have an energy-sapping style that could well take a toll on ‘Robocop’s’ gas-tank. As such, if he can survive the early rounds I think ‘Fluffy’ could gradually take over here on the mat to emerge with a decision victory.
Anthony Hernandez to win by decision
Serghei Spivac vs. Vitor Petrino Prediction
Serghei Spivac defeated Ante Delija back in February and now goes up against Vitor Petrino, who is 3-0 since moving up to the UFC’s heavyweight division.
Spivac has been fighting in the UFC for seven years now, but is still only 31-years-old, which is reasonably young by heavyweight standards. Along the way he’s compiled a 9-6 record, picking up some respectable wins along the way, but tending to fall short against the upper-echelon stars in the division. Spivac is most effective when he can get his opponent’s to the mat with his solid wrestling, making use of impactful ground-and-pound and a significant submission threat to hunt for a finish. Spivac is less convincing on the feet though due to a lack of athleticism and technical polish, together with a questionable chin that’s led to four of his six career losses coming via strikes.
The 28-year-old Petrino started off in the UFC at light-heavyweight and won his first four fights, before back-to-back defeats in 2024 prompted a move up to heavyweight. That’s worked out for him so far, though it should be stressed he’s been fighting low-tier fighters, so this is going to mark a significant step up in competition. Petrino was a physically strong, hard-hitting 205lb’er, and he’s managed to carry that up to heavyweight, and while he’s not the most technical fighter, he’s so far benefited from the lower skill-ceiling and athleticism in his new weight class. Petrino can be an explosive striker, is able to land on the counter, and is capable of utilizing takedowns to set up his heavy ground-and-pound.
Spivac isn’t the biggest heavyweight, so Petrino is similarly-sized, but will have a significant advantage in terms of athleticism and power on the feet. Spivac’s grappling could be a factor, but I think Petrino will be able to fend off his takedown attempts to nullify that threat, paving the way for a 2nd round TKO finish on the feet.
Vitor Petrino to win by TKO in Rd2
Reiner de Ridder vs. Roman Dolidze Prediction
Reiner de Ridder lost his last two fights at middleweight and so is now moving up to light-heavyweight for his next bout against Roman Dolidze, who is also coming off back-to-back defeats.
De Ridder is no stranger to competing at 205lbs as he’s fought there numerous times before joining the UFC, and indeed was a former ONE FC champion at both middleweight and light-heavyweight. However, when he first landed in the UFC back in late 2024 he chose to come in at 185lbs and did well initially by going on a four-fight winning streak against a good level of opposition. He lost his way more recently though and has blamed that on tough weight-cuts that took a toll on his energy levels. Cardio concerns aside, the 35-year-old de Ridder is a capable wrestler and high-level grappler with good technique, composure and control on the mat that’s led to 13 submission victories. He’s not as natural of a striker though as he has fairly clunky kickboxing fundamentals, but he has surprised a few opponents in the Octagon with his frequent use of knee strikes, even TKO’ing Bo Nickal with one to the body last year.
Like his opponent, the 38-year-old Dolidze has also made the decision to go back up to 205lbs after spending much of his six years in the UFC down at 185lbs. Dolidze is a physically strong, dependable and durable striker who isn’t the most expansive or technical striker, instead preferring to stick to the basics with predictable patterns. So he’ll be looking for his proven punching power to make an impact, while he also has heavy low kicks too. Dolidze is able to mix in some solid wrestling as well, and actually has capable grappling too, though he was finished for the first time in his career a year ago when he was submitted by ‘Fluffy’ Hernandez.
RDR is the superior grappler here and so if he can avoid getting caught up in extended striking exchanges then I think he should be able to control the fight on the mat and emerge with a decision victory.
Reiner de Ridder to win by decision
MarQuel Mederos vs. Mason Jones Prediction
MarQuel Mederos has picked up three wins and a draw so far in the UFC and now locks horns with Mason Jones, who is 3-0 since returning to the Octagon last year.
The 29-year-old Mederos arrived in the UFC via the Contender Series in 2023 and has extended his career record to 11-1-1 since to earn his first main card spot in the promotion. Mederos is a fairly technical striker with good footwork who generally manages distance well, likes stance switches and puts together his punches and kicks nicely, albeit without big stopping power. He did find the going tougher under constant pressure against Chris Padilla last time out, but was able to adapt with effective elbow strikes in close to help salvage a majority draw. Meanwhile, his ground game isn’t all that notable, and he’s never won by submission.
The 31-year-old Jones is a former two-division Cage Warriors champion who actually had a previous stint in the UFC from 2021-2022 that soon fizzled out after a win, two losses and a draw. He’s faired better 2nd time around though since returning last year and is a fun fighter to watch with his striking pressure and aggression, showing off solid boxing and nice knees with good power. He’s far from having air-tight defensively though and will eat too many strikes, but he’s still never been finished in his career. Despite his preference for striking, Jones is actually reasonable well-rounded, so he can wrestle and has capable grappling too.
I feel this could be another fight where Mederos will be under a lot of pressure and as such won’t be able to stay at the range he would prefer. And with Jones having more power than his last opponent and good durability I think he can battle his way to a decision victory.
Mason Jones to win by decision
Carli Judice vs. Jeisla Chaves Prediction
Carli Judice comes in off a three-fight winning streak to fight Jeisla Chaves, who won her UFC debut by split-decision to maintain her unbeaten 8-0 record.
Judice had just three pro-wins under her belt when she was given a chance to compete on the Contender Series in 2023, and though she lost she still earned a UFC contract. Another split-decision loss followed in her Octagon debut, but she’s bounced back strongly since then, winning two fights by TKO and then a unanimous decision victory last time out. The 27-year-old is still learning from fight-to-fight, but she’s a capable striker who has shown natural power in her punches to the head and body, in addition to impactful kicks, while she even found a finish in the UFC via a knee to the body. In total five of her six career wins have been by strikes, and she looks to keep the action upright with gradually improving takedown defense.
The 29-year-old Chaves winning record flatters to deceive a bit as she really was fighting absolute nobodies in Brazil prior to landing on the Contender Series a year ago. Still, though she’s a former ring girl in her homeland, Chaves has proven to be up for a scrap with her raw but functional muay thai striking and physicality. That being said, the few finishes she had on the regional scene are already turning into split-decision verdicts now that her competition has stepped up a little.
Both fighters here are far from the finished article, but Judice shows more promise and her harder hitting strikes should lead her to a 2nd round TKO finish.
Carli Judice to win by TKO in Rd2
Anthony Wint vs. Terrance Chatman Prediction
A week after winning a Contender Series fight in 34 seconds, Anthony Wint now makes his UFC debut against another newcomer Terrance Chatman, who is 5-1 in his career.
The 30-year-old Wint had a brief NFL career and has since transitioned well to competing in MMA, including winning Fury FC’s heavyweight title back in March, before his swift win on DWCS last week took him to 7-0. Wint is on the short side for a heavyweight at 5ft 11″, but he’s a thickly muscular, athletic fighter with explosive power who has already delivered five stoppage wins via strikes, while he did also register a 41 second submission win a couple of years ago.
This fight was put together on a weeks notice so the UFC have drafted in another fighter from Fury FC, the 29-year-old Chatman, to make his promotional debut against Wint. Chatman is 3″ taller than his opponent and will be significantly heavier too, but he lacks Wint’s physique and athleticism. Chatman is primarily a boxer with respectable power, but he also possesses some hard leg kicks. In fact, not only did he finish his last fight with leg kicks in the 1st round, but also an even quicker one by the same method in the final fight of his amateur career a few years ago.
Wint has the higher ceiling of the two debuting fighters here, and with his speed, power and Chatman’s chin being relatively easy to find I think we see a 1st round TKO finish here.
Anthony Wint to win by TKO in Rd1
UFC Fight Night 285: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues Prelims
(Predicted winners in bold)
Jamall Emmers vs. Lerryan Douglas
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Shamil Gaziev
Chris Padilla vs. Nasrat Haqparast
Márcio Barbosa vs. Ryan Kuse
Gauge Young vs. Stanley Dorsainvil
Wesley Schultz vs. Jackson McVey
Shanelle Dyer vs. Elise Reed
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