UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic Predictions

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UFC 309 takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at Madison Square Garden in New York City, United States and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!

UFC 309 Predictions

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Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic Prediction

Well over 20 months since claiming the heavyweight title and then undergoing surgery for a torn pectoral muscle, Jon Jones finally returns to action for a long awaited showdown against former divisional kingpin Stipe Miocic, whose last fight was KO title loss to Francis Ngannou over three-and-a-half years ago.

Many fans wanted to see the 37-year-old Jones fight interim champion Tom Aspinall next, but the star has been adamant that this fight against Miocic is far more important for his legacy given that his veteran opponent has the most heavyweight title defenses in UFC history (4). Several years ago this would indeed have been a great fight to make, but with Miocic coming off such a long layoff and now being 42-years-old it’s brought some doubts as to it’s relevancy in 2024. Still, everyone is still intriguing to see how Jones will perform in what will be just his 2nd ever heavyweight fight, after easily taking Ciryl Gane down and submitting him to claim the belt in March last year.

We didn’t get to see much of Jones striking up at heavyweight on that occasion, but it did serve as a handy reminder that he is an extremely well-rounded fighter. In fact, when he first arrived in the UFC over 16 years ago his wrestling ability really stood out as he had a knack for air-mailing opponents around the Octagon. He gradually moved away from utilizing that so much, but in later years he showed he still had it by taking down wrestling ace Daniel Cormier. He also had no problem locking in the submission against Gane even though it had been over a decade since he’d last picked up a few wins via that method, proving that despite long absences from competing, he still keeps his tools sharp.

Jones striking has often his calling card though, at least at 205lbs, aided by standing 6ft 4″ tall with an unusually long 84.5″ reach. Even at heavyweight that’s a vast wingspan and it’s certainly had a part to play in his success over the years, but he’s also a smart and creative operator on the feet who maintains distance very well with versatile kicks, including his nasty use of the oblique kick, as well as also having good straight punches, and the ability to switch to whipping elbows at closer quarters and in ground-and-pound situations, while he’s very effective in the clinch too. Despite all his success Jones has never been a big one-punch KO finisher, but we’ve yet to see what kind of difference his heavyweight frame could play in terms of his power, and for that matter how his usually solid cardio will be impacted up a weight class.

Heavyweight is a division where it’s not uncommon to see fighters still competing at a good level well into their late 30’s and early 40’s, but it certainly doesn’t mean someone like the 42-year-old Miocic is immune to the ageing process. One thing that stands in Miocic’s favor is that he seems to keep in decent shape all-year round whether he’s fighting or not and has always favored a more athletic build, competing at a relatively light 235lbs. Having only one fight in the last three-and-a-half years is a big concern though, particularly at his age. Miocic is well-rounded by heavyweight standards, having the ability to comfortably blend striking, wrestling and clinch-work together as necessary to gain the upper-hand in fights, while he also has good cardio that’s held up at the highest level over five rounds. A former Golden Gloves champion, Miocic has well-versed boxing with good speed, footwork and proven knockout power, despite being on the lighter end of the heavyweight spectrum. He also has a background in wrestling too and does a solid job of shooting in for takedowns and working on top, though he’s always lacked a submission threat, an in fact has never found a finish that way.

Miocic has enjoyed advantages over most heavyweights over the years thanks to his athleticism and well-rounded ability, but that won’t be the case against Jones, even before you factor in his potential decline due to age. Both fighters could suffer from their lack of cage time in recent years, but being in his 40’s and with two of his last four fights being KO losses that also seems to count against Miocic more. Even in their respective primes though I still feel confident Jones has the wrestling advantage, certainly the superior submission prowess, and while the striking battle will be intriguing Miocic isn’t really all that much different size-wise from many of the talented stand-up technicians he’s faced at 205lbs over the years. The fact Jones looked quite jaded in the later years of his time as champion in that division is potentially a worry here and we’ve yet to see how well he carries his extra weight if the fight goes into the later rounds, but even so there’s no real thoughts of picking an upset here – I’ll take Jones to win by ground-and-pound in the 3rd round.

Prediction: Jon Jones to win by TKO in Rd3.

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Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler Prediction

Charles Oliveira has gone 1-1 since losing the lightweight title and now heads into a co-main event clash with Michael Chandler, who has spent the best part of two years on the sidelines for a fight against Conor McGregor that has yet to materialize. He’s now ditched that plan in order to take this match-up instead, which will see him attempt to avenge a 2nd round TKO loss to Oliveira from back in 2021.

At 35-years-old Oliveira remains one of the most exciting fighters on the roster with an abundance of deadly weapons at his disposal wherever the fight goes. And he has the accolades to prove it, most notably holding the UFC’s record for most submission finishes (16). And that does remain where Oliveira is at his most dangerous as he thrives in fast-paced scrambles and chaining together relentless submission opportunities, but he also has good control too and capable wrestling to get the fight to the mat in the first place. His creativity and adaptability shines through there, but it’s also evident in his muay thai style striking too, which has improved over the years to also become more of a force to be reckoned with, utilizes all 8 limbs effectively. He possesses good speed and surprising power, as Chandler can testify to as he was floored by a fast Oliveira left hook in their first fight and then finished with more accurate strikes. A real concern for Oliveira is his chin as he often gets rocked in fights, and while he’s generally shown very good powers of recovery and can turn things back in his favor as he did against Chandler, it’s only a matter of time before that damage takes a toll on his durability.

It was a big risk for Chandler to give up on the riches of a potential McGregor fight to try to avenge an old loss, but he clearly still feels it’s a winnable match-up. And there were certainly some promising signs in the first fight as was able to survive having his back taken early in the opening round and also had a spell on top too. And meanwhile on the feet he cut Oliveira with an early strike and then rocked him a few minutes later. Now 38-years-old, the former Bellator champion has always been an exciting fighter to watch, with an offensively-driven mindset. He’s less flashy than Oliveira striking wise, but he has big power in his punches, has very good wrestling ability, solid grappling and good cardio. Chandler is intelligent, but his inclination to being a technical brawler can run him into trouble, and like Oliveira he can be dazed and often has to fight through adversity. And while his submission defense has generally been solid he was tapped out for the first time by Dustin Poirier last time out.

With both men being so offensively-minded and also vulnerable to getting rocked it does feel like anything could happen here. Oliveira has more ways to win though and is especially ruthless on the mat, so while Chandler could easily crack him on the feet and find a finish, I’ll take ‘Do Bronx’ to hunt down a submission win in the 2nd round of a fast and furious fight.

Prediction: Charles Oliveira to win by submission in Rd2.

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Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig Prediction

Much-hyped MMA prospect Bo Nickal has gone 6-0 in the sport so far, including three victories since joining the UFC last year from the Contender Series. Now he’ll fight his most notable opponent yet in Paul Craig, though he has struggled in recent years, mustering just one win in his past five fights.

The 28-year-old Nickal is an elite-level wrestler who many people tipped for big things when he transitioned to MMA, and so far he’s proven them correct by looking very much at home in the cage and almost literally running through his first five opponents in the opening round. Seasoned veteran Cody Brundage proved a little tougher to put away last time out at UFC 300, yet Nickal still submitted him by the 2nd round. And that’s the thing about Nickal – as good as his wrestling is, he’s by no means a one-trick pony as he’s submitted four opponents now and has also shown a promising comfort level on the feet too, including showing off impressive natural power. Even so, as confident as Nickal is in his own abilities and impressive athleticism, he’s also smart enough to realize that he’s still a work-in-progress, and so he’s openly talked about wanting to have a steady rise up the ranks rather than being quickly fast-tracked towards a title shot.

And so Nickal now goes up another veteran in the 36-year-old Craig, who is potentially more of a threat than Brundage, but also has glaring flaws. It’s no secret that Craig’s greatest strength is his submission ability, and in particular his lethal triangle choke that he’s caught many opponents out over the years despite them knowing exactly what he wants to do. Even current No.1 ranked 205lb’er Magomed Ankalaev fell into that trap in his UFC debut years ago in a fight that he was winning handily until being forced to tap out in literally the last second of the fight. So Nickal will have to be wary of that, but the good news for him is that Craig’s wrestling is very poor and so he’s often forced to resort to trying to pull guard, which tends to fail miserably against opponents who are wise to it. And if forced to fight on the feet Craig’s lack of athleticism, speed and power leaves him exposed, while his chin also appears to be in decline after two losses via strikes in the past couple of years.

I think Nickal may well see this is a great opportunity to work on his striking as even with his limited experience he should still be more effective, faster and harder-hitting in the exchanges, while also being more durable. And Nickal’s wrestling should also easily enable him to swat aside any attempts from Craig to get the fight to the mat. So I’ll take Nickal to win by TKO in the 2nd round here.

Prediction: Bo Nickal to win by TKO in Rd2

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Viviane Araujo vs. Karine Silva Prediction

Viviane Araujo has lost two of her last three fights as she now prepares to fight Karine Silva, who has gone 4-0 since joining the UFC in 2022.

A week shy of her 38th birthday it’s clear from Araujo’s 6-5 UFC record that she’s a fighter who often gets the better of unranked opponents, but tends to come off second-best against her contemporaries in the rankings. She’s not getting blown out of the water though, with the likes of Natalia Silva, Amanda Ribas, Alexa Grasso and katlyn Chookagian all having to settle for a win on the scorecards against her in the past few years. Araujo is a fighter who has leaned on her athleticism over the years with good physicality and speed aiding her solid pressure-based boxing, while she’s also a respectable enough wrestler and grappler. Obviously Araujo’s age is going to start taking a toll on her quickness, reactions and cardio though, and she is becoming increasingly hittable these days.

The 30-year-old Silva has looked good in the UFC so far, showing well-rounded skills. On the feet she’s a competent technical kickboxer who fights at a measured pace, while she’s also an assured wrestler and has a well-developed submission arsenal at her disposal. In fact her first three wins in the UFC came via submission in the 1st round, demonstrating her versatility with guillotine, kneebar and brabo-choke finishes. At the start of her career Silva also had a string of finishes via strikes, leaving her with an impressive 17 out of 18 career wins coming inside the distance. Despite her skill on the mat it’s also worth noting that two of her four losses on the regional circuit were due to submission as well.

Silva is in her prime at the moment and has already seen off some respectable opponents, and with Araujo being in the later stage of her career and having struggled to find success against opponents of this calibre in the past I’m expecting Silva to win here, though she may have to settle for a win on the scorecards.

Prediction: Karine Silva to win by decision.

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Mauricio Ruffy vs. James Llontop Prediction

Mauricio Duffy earned a TKO victory in his UFC debut to go 10-1 overall in his career to date and now gets an opportunity to shine on the main card of a major PPV event against James Llontop, who comes in on a week’s notice as a late replacement after suffering back-to-back defeats since joining the promotion.

The 28-year-old Ruffy is clearly a fighter the UFC wants to give a bit of a push given his place on the card and it’s not hard to see why as he’s a talented striker who has finished all 10 of his career wins via either KO or TKO. As you might expect then he has big punching power, but his kicks are impactful too and he delivers his strikes with speed and accuracy, while also doing a good job of reading his opponents intentions. His ground game is relatively untested at this stage in his career though.

The 24-year-old Llontop is big for the lightweight division at 6ft, though that only gives him an extra inch to work with against Ruffy, who is also tall for the weight class and actually has a couple of inches in reach over him. Llontop is a respectable kickboxer in his own right and had been demonstrating finishing power on the regional scene leading up to joining the UFC, but his performances since then have left question marks as to whether he can compete at this level. Last time out he came off second-best in a striking battle, while before that he was easily taken down and submitted.

This is a tough spot for Llontop as he appears to be overmatched and underprepared here coming in on short notice against a significantly more dangerous striking in Ruffy, and I’ll say that leads to a first round TKO finish.

Prediction: Mauricio Ruffy to win by TKO in Rd1.

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UFC 309 Prelims

(Predicted winners in bold)

Jonathan Martinez vs. Marcus McGhee
Chris Weidman vs. Eryk Anders
Jim Miller vs. Damon Jackson
Marcin Tybura vs. Jhonata Diniz
Mickey Gall vs. Ramiz Brahimaj
Bassil Hafez vs. Oban Elliot
Veronica Hardy vs. Eduarda Moura