UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev Predictions

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UFC Fight Night 253 takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, United States and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!

UFC Fight Night 253 Predictions

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Manel Kape vs. Asu Almabayev Prediction

Manel Kape is 4-1 in his last five UFC fights and after his original opponent Brandon Royval withdrew from the card earlier in the month he’ll now fight Asu Almabayev, who comes in on short-notice after notching up four wins in the UFC so far.

The 31-year-old Kape is a fast and dynamic flyweight who carries some of the biggest one-strike power in the division and has the capalibity to ends fights in the blink of an eye with a single punch, head kick or flying knee. The catch is that he doesn’t always utilize his offensive weaponry as much as he should, instead preferring to wait for that one big strike or counter that will end the fight rather than staying active from start to finish. Kape looks to keep his fights standing, but has had mixed results doing so at times. He’s not a fish-out-of-water if he is taken down and can generally take care of himself, but despite notching up some submission finishes early in his career he’s not had any since 2018.

The 31-year-old Almabayev may be a late replacement, but the good news is that he had been training to fight Steve Erceg at this event anyway until his opponent was switched to headline a different show. So he should be in good shape here, although it’s not ideal that he’s not been preparing for a five-rounder. Almabayev should be able to adapt as he’s a well-conditioned and well-rounded fighter. He is comfortable striking, but he has his best success when he implements his relentless wrestling, showing a mixture of speed and strength to take his opponents down and keep them there. He also having a solid grappling game that’s resulted in nine submission finishes, but these days more than ever he’s happy to just grind out a win on the scorecards.

Kape’s speed, power and counter-striking means he’ll be a constant threat in this fight when it’s upright, but equally Almabayev’s superior ground game could prove to be just as troubling in it’s own way. Almabayev hasn’t lost a fight in 8 years, and I think if he can get long spells of control on the mat, then Kape’s tendency to have a low-volume approach on the feet could limit his chances of finding the finish he may well need to win. So I’ll take Almabayev to stifle Kape and grind out a decision win.

Prediction: Asu Almabayev to win by decision

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Cody Brundage vs. Julian Marquez Prediction

Cody Brundage takes the co-main event spot despite going winless in his two fights last year, while Julian Marquez desperately needs to turn things around after suffering three losses in a row via strikes.

The 30-year-old Brundage’s recent record doesn’t make for good reading, with just two wins to show from his last seven Octagon appearances, and one of them being due to his opponent being DQ’d for an illegal elbow to the back of the head. Bizarrely, Brundage’s last fight also ended with him being the victim of the same illegal elbows, though this time the outcome was a no-contest. Brundage’s striking technique is fairly basic and so he relies a lot on the fact he has significant power to try to make up for that. His foundation is in wrestling though, having competed through high school and college, but that tends to only be successful for him against a certain level of opposition.

The 34-year-old Marquez has been in the UFC since 2017, but has only managed to put together a 3-4 record in that time after a back injury kept him out of action for a couple of years. Presently though it seems to be durability issues that are his main concern as he’s now been finished three times in a row, including a 20 second TKO defeat last time out. That’s far from ideal for a fighter who thrives on taking the fight to his opponents with a defensively suspect, all-action attacking style that until his recent slump had been reasonably successful, with all nine of his career victories coming via stoppage. Marquez backs up his hard-hitting aggression at close quarters with a willingness to seize upon submission opportunities, but he’s not much of a wrestler.

It’s hard to pick either fighter here with much confidence as they both have significant flaws. If Marquez’s chin hadn’t become so compromised lately I may well have picked him as he is the more dangerous striker, but at this stage Brundage is more durable and has the power to punish him for his lack of defense, while also having the potential to make some use of his wrestling too. So I’ll take Brundage to win by TKO in the 2nd round.

Prediction: Cody Brundage to win by TKO in Rd2

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Nasrat Haqparast vs. Esteban Ribovics Prediction

Nasrat Haqparast has gone on a four-fight winning run over the past couple of years and now he’ll face another in-form fighter in Esteban Ribovics, who has compiled a three-fight win streak since losing in his promotional debut in 2023.

The 29-year-old Haqparast is an active and agile striker with sound technique who possesses very good speed and movement and pieces together his combinations well. Early in his career Haqparast’s record was filled with finishes, but that trend essentially ended as soon as he arrived in the UFC back in 2017, with 7 of his 9 wins in the Octagon having come via decision. Haqparast will use his takedown defense to try to keep the action upright, but he’s quite well-rounded and can operate on the mat if required.

The 28-year-old Ribovics has compiled a very solid 14-1 career record so far and is coming off his biggest win yet, besting Daniel Zellhuber via split-decision on the main card of the high-profile Noche FC event last September. Ribovics is a spirited striker with good power who will apply pressure from the start and has the kind of heart and toughness that has seen him endure through bad moments and then battle back to win. Early in his career Ribovics actually found a number of wins by submission, finding a particular affinity for the kimura, but we don’t see that side of his game much these days.

This has the making of an entertaining stand-up battle between two good fighters, but I think Ribovics will prove to be the tougher, more aggressive striker of the two, leading to a third round TKO finish.

Prediction: Esteban Ribovics to win by TKO in Rd3

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Austen Lane vs. Mario Pinto Prediction

Austen Lane has struggled in the UFC so far, having only just won his first fight in the Octagon at the fourth attempt, and now he’ll welcome a newcomer to the Octagon in Mario Pinto, who is undefeated in his 9-0 career to date.

The 37-year-old Lane is a former NFL player who struggled to get game time and so eventually transitioned to MMA. He eventually fought his way to the UFC via the Contender Series, but it’s not gone well and he suffered back-to-back KO’s not so long ago that have raised concerns about his durability. He did however manage to take advantage of Olympic Taekwondo bronze medalist Robelis Despaigne’s complete lack of a ground game last time out to get a win under his belt. However, while Lane is a big, athletic heavyweight, his own mat work is fairly rudimentary. On the feet Lane stands 6ft 6″ with an 80″ reach, but on this occasion is opponent matches up similarly. He does have good power, but as with other aspects of his game he tends to rely on his physicality more than solid technique and he is poor defensively.

11-years younger than Lane, the 26-year-old Pinto KO’d his Contender Series opponent in under two minutes last October. As mentioned earlier, like his opponent he’s also a big heavyweight and is in very good physical shape for his size. He also has capable striking fundamentals and shown knockout power, though a couple of fights ago he also showed he has the patience and stamina to win a five-round fight on the scorecards too. It’s still to be seen how he fares against a step up in competition though and his ground game is largely untested.

I’ve not been impressed with Lane so far and given his recent chin issues I think a similarly big, athletic fighter like Pinto with less miles on the clock and better striking technique will punish him on the feet to emerge with a 1st round KO victory.

Prediction: Mario Pinto to win by KO in Rd1

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Hyder Amil vs. William Gomis Prediction

The undefeated Hyder Amil is 2-0 in the UFC so far and now fights William Gomis, who is unbeaten in his four Octagon appearances.

The 34-year-old Amil is a fast-paced battler who uses his intensity and high-volume striking to swarm his opponents, and it’s worked well for him in the UFC so far with back-to-back TKO victories, including stopping his last fight in just 65 seconds. That being said, his raw aggression can come at the expensive of technique and he leans on his durability to make up for his defensive lapses. Amil can also struggle with being outwrestled, but he has a knack for battling his way out of bad spots.

The 27-year-old Gomis is a tall, rangey kickboxer who will enjoy a 3″ height and reach advantage here. He prefers to operate on the outside, utilizing good movement and clean striking technique with his straight punches and kicks, and he can land well on the counter too. His low-volume approach is a concern though, even if it does tend to keep him relatively safe defensively. At closer quarters Gomis often opts to clinch up or go for the occasional takedown, and he’s also able to defend himself on the mat, but he’s not much of a submission threat.

This is certainly a clash of styles as Amil is very aggressive and always on the front foot, while Gomis prefers a much more patient approach from range. Gomis showed last time out against Joanderson Brito that he’s not overawed by facing a high-intensity opponent though. He should find good opportunities to utilize his counter-striking here, while also employing some grinding clinch work and potentially a takedown or two to help edge out a decision win.

Prediction: William Gomis to win by decision.

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UFC Fight Night 253 Prelims

(Predicted winners in bold)

Danny Barlow vs. Sam Patterson
Ricardo Ramos vs. Chepe Mariscal
Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. John Castañeda
Andrea Lee vs. JJ Aldrich
Danny Silva vs. Lucas Almeida
Montana De La Rosa vs. Luana Carolina
Charles Johnson vs. Ramazan Temirov