UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi Predictions

UFC Fight Night 279: Kape vs. Horiguchi takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas, United States – and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below, and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!

Manel Kape vs. Kyoji Horiguchi Prediction

No.2 ranked flyweight Manel Kape is banging on the door of title contention after three TKO wins in a row, but first has to rematch the No.5 ranked Kyoji Horiguchi, who has won both his fights since his return to the UFC.

The 32-year-old Kape is an athletic fighter whose fast, dynamic striking is bolstered by uncommon power for a flyweight that’s led him to 14 stoppages via strikes from 22 career wins. While his punches are always a threat, opponents also have to be aware of the fight-ending potential from his kicks and knees too, both to the head and body. The only catch is that sometimes he can be quite sparing with his output, which can cost him if he doesn’t find the finishing blow he’s waiting for. Still, Kape is also able to offer a threat on the mat via submission too. However, he has been submitted himself twice in his career, and one of those happened to be in a competitive fight against Horiguchi in the Rizin promotion back in 2017.

Horiguchi put together a good 7-1 run in the UFC between 2013-2016, before unexpectedly departing for Japanese promotion Rizin in 2017. His win over Kape came that year on his way to winning their bantamweight Grand-Prix, and overall he’d go 15-3 (+1nc) during his eight year run in Rizin, including wins over the likes of Kai Asakura, Sergio Pettis and Ian McCall. As such his return to the UFC late last year was a welcome sight, and at 35-year-old he’s so far shown that he’s still performing at a high level. Horiguchi is a talented fighter with a well-rounded skill-set and very good athleticism. Like Kape he is fast on the feet and has good power, but he’s also an assured wrestler and has been picking up submission wins more frequently in recent years. Horiguchi is also well equipped to just win on the scorecards too though, emerging victorious in 15 out of 17 fights that went to the final bell.

These are two very good fighters who will likely test each other to their limits. I’d expect a very close fight, particularly on the feet, where Kape has more power, but Horiguchi brings better volume. I do think Horiguchi also still has an edge on the mat though with his wrestling and grappling, which will help him win otherwise close rounds to emerge with a decision victory.

Kyoji Horiguchi to win by decision

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Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling Prediction

Ion Cutelaba picked up a submission win back in March and now fights Navajo Stirling, who has gone 4-0 so far in the UFC.

The 32-year-old Cutelaba is an all-action offensive powerhouse with major defensive vulnerabilities, which explains why his UFC record stands at just 9-10-1. Cutelaba is a fast-starter who looks to overwhelm his opponents early with aggressive power-strikes on the feet, brutal ground-and-pound on the mat, and a submission threat too. And he can succeed with all those options, with 13 wins via strikes and 4 via submission from 20 career victories. However, the problem is that being so overly focused on offense, and having a tendency to overcommit to his strikes and submission attempts, means he leaves himself defensively vulnerable, while also burning through his energy reserves. There’s been some signs in recent years that he’s trying to address that to an extent, but he’s still a loose cannon overall.

The 28-year-old Stirling transitioned over to MMA from muay thai in 2022, and has gone undefeated in his 9-0 run to date, including getting a few UFC wins under his belt. Stirling is a good sized light-heavyweight who will have a 3″ height and 4″ reach advantage here. He’s athletic, has solid muay thai striking technique, good volume and respectable power, with five of his fights ending via strikes, including a TKO last time out. He has been taken down at times, but he’s shown an ability to get back to his feet so far.

I think Cutelaba’s threat on the mat will be Stirling’s biggest concern here, but on the feet I like his chances to weather the early storm and then deliver a 2nd round TKO finish.

Navajo Stirling to win by TKO in Rd2

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Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira Prediction

Andre Fili lost his first fight of the year by split-decision and now goes up against Vinicius Oliveira, who is coming off a submission defeat.

The 35-year-old Fili has been alternating between wins and losses for his last 13 fights, spanning a six-year period. Furthermore, he’s also had an unusual habit of either winning or losing by split-decision throughout his entire UFC run, having done so on seven occasions, including in his last two bouts. It’s a disappointing return for a fighter who has never seemed to reach his full potential. Fili is a tall, lanky 145lb’er who competes at a measured pace, delivers his punches and kicks from range with respectable technique, and has proven to be a capable counter-striker. Even so, he is there to be hit too often and is less durable than he was earlier in his career. He’s able to mix in an occasional takedown and can grapple, but in 39 career fights has only picked up three submission wins, and has been tapped out himself as many times.

The 30-year-old Oliveira already had a good amount of experience on the regional scene before arriving in the UFC via the Contender Series in 2024. As such he was put in against some solid opponents early in his UFC run, yet still managed to go 4-0 against the likes of Ricky Simon, Said Nurmagomedov and Kyler Phillips before losing to Mario Bautista last time out. ‘Lok Dog’ is a dynamic, athletic striker who has frequently delivered T(KO) finishes for much of his career, including back-to-back KO wins in his DWCS fight and UFC debut. However, with the increase in competition more recently he’s now had to settle for more wins on the scorecards. He still remains active, dynamic and aggressive in the striking department though, and manages to dish out more strikes than he takes in return. That being said, while his loss last time out was his first by submission, he has been finished three time via strikes in the past.

Going by his long-running statistical trend, Fili should be due to a win in his next fight, but I don’t see it that way. Oliveira is the more dangerous striker here, and I think he finds a TKO finish by the second round.

Vinicius Oliveira to win by TKO in Rd2

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Hyder Amil vs. Christian Rodriguez Prediction

Both Hyder Amil and Christian Rodriguez are looking to break free from back-to-back defeats when they lock horns on Saturday night.

The 36-year-old Amil arrived in the UFC from the Contender Series back in 2024 with an undefeated 7-0 record, and then continued that form with three wins in a row in the Octagon. However, a 26 second KO loss then halted his momentum and he’s since lost again via decision. Amil likes to fight at a fast pace with high-intensity, high-volume muay-thai striking. His battling qualities on the feet can come at the expense of clean technique and defensive responsibilities though. Meanwhile, he’s also not as effective on the mat, and can be outwrestled at times.

The 28-year-old Rodriguez developed a reputation as a prospect-killer early in his UFC run, blemishing the previously pristine records of fighters like Raul Rosas Jr, Cameron Saaiman, Isaac Dulgarian and Austin Bashi. However, he’s since had problems replicating that against more experienced and established fighters, and lost three of his last last four fights in the process. Rodriguez isn’t a particularly big, hard-hitting or fast fighter, but he is a steady all-rounder with solid fundamentals on the feet and on the mat, along with dependable cardio, durability and good composure.

Rodriguez is the kind of fighter who is unlikely to get overwhelmed by early aggression here and tends to build as the fight goes on, while he also has the advantage on the mat here, so I’ll take him to win by decision.

Christian Rodriguez to win by decision

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Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov Prediction

Melsik Baghdasaryan comes in off two losses in his last three bouts to fight the debuting Murtazali Magomedov, who arrives from the Contender Series with a perfect 10-0 record.

The 34-year-old Baghdasaryan is a former pro-kickboxer who switched to MMA in 2019. After a swift string of finishes in the space of a year on the regional scene he then made it onto the Contender Series and earned his spot in the UFC, where he’s gone 4-2 so far. Baghdasaryan is a skilled, high-output striker, who has power in his hands and can be a real threat with his head kicks too. It’s easy to spot that MMA hasn’t always been his primary focus though as Baghdasaryan’s ground game is weak and he’s been submitted twice before, while he’s also coming off his first TKO loss against a top-10 talent in Jean Silva.

The 26-year-old Magomedov has proven to be a finisher on the regional circuit, with all 10 of his wins so far coming inside the distance, split straight down the middle between strikes and submissions. That reflects the fact that Magomedov is a well-rounded fighter who looks comfortable on the feet and has good speed, while he’s also a solid wrestler and has an assured grappling game to go along with it.

I think Magomedov can strike with Baghdasaryan here, but in the end the path of least resistance is to take him down, and from there I think it’s only a matter of time before he finds a submission finish.

Murtazali Magomedov to win by submission in Rd2

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UFC Fight Night 279: Baghdasaryan vs. Magomedov Prelims

(Predicted winners in bold)

Andre Lima vs. Kevin Borjas
Beatriz Mesquita vs. Melissa Mullins
Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo
Gastón Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell Jr.
Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos
Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli
Shane Collins vs. Otari Tanzilovi

MMA Writer

Ross Cole

Ross Cole is one of the most prolific mixed martial arts writers in the world.

Having written more than 22,000 MMA news stories for MMA Insight, which he founded in 2009 as a way to channel his passion for the sport of mixed martial arts.

Few people know the UFC and the sport of MMA like Ross, and he has built a solid reputation for being one of the best MMA tipsters in the world.

You can read more of Ross's work at MMAInsight.com.