UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Garry Predictions

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UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Garry takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States. – and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below, and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!

Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry Prediction

UFC welterweight champion Islam Makhachev has a chance to lay claim to the longest winning streak in UFC history (currently 16) on Saturday night when he goes up against Ian Machado Garry, who has a very solid 10-1 record in the promotion.

This will be the 34-year-old Makhachev’s 1st title defense up at 170lbs, but having previously done so successfully 4 times during his earlier reign as lightweight champion, he’s already cemented his position at the No.1 pound-for-pound fighter in the sport. Makhachev is an extremely skilled fighter in all aspects of MMA, but his dominant wrestling game and comprehensive grappling ability remain his most formidable weapons. No-one has really been able to stop him from getting takedowns if he sets his mind to it, and he has very good control on top. He doesn’t play it safe though as he’ll actively pursue ground-and-pound, while he has no less than 13 submission wins to his name. What’s really helped Makhachev become the best of the best however is that he also has all the hallmarks of an assured striker too, possessing good technique, accuracy and timing, together with reasonable power. It should be noted though that the single loss of his career did come by 1st round KO early in his UFC run, so he’s not entirely indestructible, but he’s rarely been troubled in the almost eight years since then.

The 28-year-old Garry has always been a confident fighter, and that was only reinforced last year with two good wins over current No.1 contender Carlos Prates and former champ Belal Muhammad. Garry is primarily a striker and will benefit from a significant 5″ height and 4″ reach advantage here, which will suit his polished and composed kickboxing game from range. He’ll utilize good footwork and accurate straight punches to maintain distance and is sound defensively, but he will have to be somewhat wary when dishing out his solid kicks so as not to invite potential takedown opportunities from Makhachev. Garry has very good takedown defense however, and has proven to be a capable offensive wrestler too, while he can also grapple. That being said, though he’s never been stopped by strikes or submission, he does only have one submission win on his record.

If Garry can keep this fight upright then his size advantage and patient, calculated striking could become a tricky puzzle for Makhachev to solve. However, while his takedown defense is very respectable it’s going to be hard to stop a determined Makhachev from chaining takedown attempts to get him down, and though he may be able to fend off some submission attempts, I think he eventually gets caught in one here in the championship rounds.

Islam Makhachev to win by submission in Rd4

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Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson Prediction

Mackenzie Dern won the vacant strawweight title last time out with her third victory in a row and now goes up against Gillian Robertson, who has won her last five fights.

When Dern first arrived in the UFC back in 2018 there was an expectation that she could become a future champion thanks to already being an elite grappler with a highly decorated run in BJJ’s top competitions. However, at some points over the years since it had seemed like she would fail to live up to her potential, and in fact she’s only a couple of years removed from a poor run that saw her win just two out of six fights. The problem wasn’t her ground game, which remains a major asset, but rather issues getting the fight to the mat in the first place due to a lack of competent wrestling fundamentals. That was compounded by also having a real struggle levelling up her striking game, with her toughness and tenacity not being matched by her technique and fight IQ. Now 33-years-old, Dern has gradually been working on her weak-points, though truth-be-told even as champion she remains a work-in-progress. Still, she is a bit more composed and less of a sitting duck on the feet, while also having showed signs of improved takedowns too.

Like Dern, the 31-year-old Robertson joined the UFC relatively early in her MMA career after an extensive, though less decorated, run in BJJ, and has had to endure some ups and downs in the years since. In fact, Robertson was only 9-6 in the promotion prior to 2024, but has since finally settled into a consistent winning run. And like Dern, Robertson’s prior issues were down to being overly one-dimensional, although on the positive side that has led to her holding the current record for most submission victories in women’s UFC history (7). Over time she’s become a more complete ground fighter though by adding effective ground-and-pound to her arsenal, and while she’s still not the most potent striker on the feet, a drop down to strawweight has helped her compete physically, and she’s a little better defensively these days.

Both fighters clearly have some similarities, but as good as Robertson has proven to be on the mat, Dern is still the higher level BJJ player. And while both are still flawed on the feet, I do think Dern’s physicality and raw power will benefit her in the striking and clinch exchanges, leading her to a decision victory.

Mackenzie Dern to win by decision

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Jalin Turner vs. Kaue Fernandes Prediction

Jalin Turner comes in off a TKO win against Edson Barboza last year to fight Kaue Fernandes, who is on a three-fight winning streak.

Turner’s victory last time out was much-needed as prior to that he’d hit a major slump in form that had seen him lose four out of five fights. In fact, after a submission loss to Ignacious Bahamondes in March last year, the 31-year-old surprised many by briefly retiring, though he soon changed his mind. While that episode raised question-marks regarding his mentality, Turner’s frustration at his form was understandable given that he seems to have the potential to do better. Turner is a huge, long-limbed lightweight at 6ft 3″, which will be give him a major 6″ height and 4″ reach advantage on this occasion. He moves well for his size with good speed and has proven finishing power in his fists, along with solid kicks, leading to 11 of his 15 career wins via T(KO). Turner also has functional wrestling and can grapple too, with his other four victories coming via submission. There are downsides though as he doesn’t have the best cardio and has lost all four of his fights that went to the scorecards, while he’s also been stopped by strikes on four occasions.

After a 3-1 run in the UFC so far, this will be the 31-year-old Fernandes’ first opportunity to fight on the main card of an event. Fernandes is an explosive striker and has proven to have dangerous kicks to all levels, with his 1st round leg kick TKO of Harry Hardwick last time out nicely complementing the back-to-back 1st round body and head kick KO’s that paved the way for his move from LFA to UFC a few years ago. Fernandes has the capability to put together solid combinations, but his output can fade over time and he has been outwrestled before. Still, his takedown defense has improved over time and he’s never been finished inside the distance.

Turner’s size advantage makes this a challenging fight for Fernandes to navigate on the feet, and given ‘The Tarantuala’s’ power I think that could lead to a 1st round finish here.

Jalin Turner to win by TKO in Rd1

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Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Dustin Stoltzfus Prediction

Mansur Abdul-Malik’s TKO loss in March leaves him with a 4-1-1 record in the UFC so far as he now prepares to fight Dustin Stoltzfus, who is coming off back-to-back defeats last year.

The 28-year-old Abdul-Malik is a big, long-limbed middleweight who comes from a wrestling background and can use that to land takedowns and dish out some heavy ground-and-pound, and he’s also got a couple of submission wins on his record. However, Abdul-Malik has a real desire to engage on the feet, where he can make full use of his 80″ reach. He has proven to be fast and has explosive power in his punches and kicks, while he’ll also mix in lengthy knees and elbows too. As such, Abdul-Malik has managed to finish all nine of his career wins inside the distance, but he can show questionable cardio if fights go long and he was TKO’d for the first time in his career last time out after being dominated and gradually worn down by Yousri Belgaroui.

The 34-year-old Stoltzfus earned his spot in the UFC back in 2020 via the Contender Series after his opponent Joe Pyfer suffered a freak elbow injury, and he’s struggled to keep his head above water in the UFC, going just 3-7 in the Octagon. Stoltzfus has steady kickboxing, but while he has respectable enough technique and conditioning, he lacks the kind of speed and power to trouble most of his opponents, and has just three wins via strikes in his 16-8 career. He benefits from being a bit of a jack-of-all-trades though as he will look to mix things up with spells of wrestling and grappling too, and he has six wins via submission.

Stoltzfus has already been finished twice by strikes during his UFC run and with Abdul-Malik having speed, power and an extra 5″ in reach on his side I think another 1st round stoppage is entirely possible here.

Mansur Abdul-Malik to win by TKO in Rd1

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Edson Barboza vs. Esteban Ribovics Prediction

Edson Barboza has now lost three fights in a row and will try to arrest that slide when he goes up against Esteban Ribovics, who has only picked up one victory in his last three Octagon appearances.

Barboza’s current slump in form culminated back with a 1st round TKO loss back in December, just a month prior to his 40th birthday. The Brazilian has been fighting in the UFC for nearly 16 years now and for much of that has enjoyed a reputation as being one of the best striking specialists on the roster. Even at this late stage in his career he’s still dynamic and a clean technician with a powerful and versatile kicking game, solid punches and good knees, while he also has well-versed takedown defense to keep the fight where he wants it. He’s always been a tough, determined fighter, but his durability has inevitably declined over time though, as has his striking output, which offers his opponents more routes to victory than in the past.

A decade younger than Barboza, the 30-year-old Ribovics has set his stall out as a battle-hardened striker who applies constant pressure on the feet with high-volume offense and respectable power. Ribovics can be a bit too willing to rely on his strong chin and heart to battle through adversity in fights though, so while he’s never been stopped by strikes, that may well catch up to him in the future. Meanwhile, Ribovics was submitted for the first time in his last fight, but while he prefers to stand and trade he can actually grapple too and in fact began his career with five submission wins in six fights, including three by kimura.

Barboza at his best is certainly the better technical striker here, but at 40-years-old I’m not sure he can withstand Ribovics striking volume, intensity and better durability, so I think the younger man emerges with a 2nd round TKO victory here.

Esteban Ribovics to win by TKO in Rd2

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UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Garry Prelims

(Predicted winners in bold)

Chidi Njokuani vs. Joel Álvarez
Charles Johnson vs. Eduardo Chapolin
Donte Johnson vs. Eric McConico
Vicente Luque vs. Tresean Gore
Rafael Tobias vs. Lucas Fernando
Neil Magny vs. Ramiz Brahimaj
Jeremiah Wells vs. Myktybek Orolbai

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MMA Writer

Ross Cole

Ross Cole is one of the most prolific mixed martial arts writers in the world.

Having written more than 22,000 MMA news stories for MMA Insight, which he founded in 2009 as a way to channel his passion for the sport of mixed martial arts.

Few people know the UFC and the sport of MMA like Ross, and he has built a solid reputation for being one of the best MMA tipsters in the world.

You can read more of Ross's work at MMAInsight.com.