UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan Predictions

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UFC 311 takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!

UFC 311 Predictions

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Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan Prediction

Back in 2019 Islam Makhachev defeated the debuting Arman Tsarukyan by unanimous decision and has since gone on to win the lightweight title, extend his winning streak to 14 fights and reach No.1 on the pound-for-pound list. Tsarukyan has done well since too though, having won nine of his 10 fights since to set up this mouth-watering rematch.

It was a tall order for Tsarukyan to have to fight Makhachev in his first ever UFC fight, but he gave a very good account of himself in a ‘Fight of The Night’ performance that showed he was capable of giving the future champion a genuine challenge with his wrestling and grappling, while also looking the sharper of the two on the feet. Makhachev did edge out the mat work exchanges overall though, and with his deeper gas tank in the later stages of the fight he deserved his decision win.

The 28-year-old Tsarkukyan is now far more experienced and continues to impress with his technically sound, very well-rounded skill-set, together with his speed and athleticism. Of the two though it feels like the 33-year-old Makhachev may actually have noticeably improved more though. Perhaps not so much in terms of his wrestling, clinch-work and grappling, which has always been excellent, but more with his striking, which these days has become a more refined, potent and clinical aspect of his game that’s got the better of some of the best strikers in the sport.

As such, while Tsarukyan is a very worthy challenger who has certainly earned his long-awaited rematch, and will no doubt give the champion another tough fight, I do feel that Makhachev remains at the peak of his powers and will do a better job in the striking exchanges this time around. And of course he’ll still have that extra edge in the wrestling department, very reliable grappling and importantly also has the superior cardio and experience over five gruelling rounds to ensure he emerges with another decision victory.

Prediction: Islam Makhachev to win by decision.

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Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov Prediction

Merab Dvalishvili finally won the bantamweight title by defeating Sean O’Malley last September, while extending his winning streak to 11-fights, and now he’ll go up against the undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov, who has gone 6-0 in the UFC so far.

The 34-year-old Dvalishvili’s game is well established at this stage, and has proven time-and-time again to be highly effective. His cardio is second-to-none and that enables him to push a relentless pace, with a particular focus on using his powerhouse wrestling to constantly go for takedown opportunities. Truth be told Dvalishvili isn’t the best at controlling opponents when he does get them down, and he rarely offers up any kind of notable finishing threat via either submission or ground-and-pound, but as when the action goes back to the feet he gets straight back to working on takedowns again, wearing out his rivals in the process. Dvalishvili is also very durable, which is just as well as his striking defence isn’t the best, and his stand-up game is merely functional.

The 29-year-old Nurmagomedov has had a lot to live up to given that his brother Usman is Bellator’s lightweight champion, while the legendary Khabib Nurmagomedov is his cousin. And to his credit, so far he’s certainly proven himself worthy. So much so In fact that even Dvalishvili appeared reluctant to face him at first, attempting to downplay his achievements and talk-up other opponents for his first title defense, before ultimately agreeing to the match-up. And it’s not hard to see why as Nurmagomedov is certainly the more well-rounded fighter here. Nurmagomedov is a very solid wrestler, but he’s also a talented grappler too, and that has proven to be his main finishing threat. However, what really stands out about him is his striking as he’s a fast and agile, particularly with his wide variety of dextrous kicks from range. That does a good job of keeping opponents at bay, making him harder to hit or take down, while his ability to then suddenly shoot for fast takedowns adds another dimension to his game.

Dvalishvili has beaten an impressive list of stars to get to this point, and his drive, determination and unlimited gas tank make him exceptionally hard to deal with. However, Nurmagomedov seems like a very tough match-up for him as he’s unquestionably the better striker, but also has the wrestling, takedown defense and distance management to upset Merab’s gameplan, while also offering up a distinct submission threat on the mat too. In essence, Umar has more ways to win and Merab doesn’t have a plan-B. Dvalishvili has also hinted at having had injury issues during his camp, so I lean towards Nurmagomedov to win here by decision.

Prediction: Umar Nurmagomedov to win by decision.

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Jiri Prochazka vs. Jamahal Hill Prediction

Two former light-heavyweight champions clash on the main card, and Jiri Prochazka and Jamahal Hill also share an unfortunate bond in that they both lost the belt to the same opponent – Alex Pereira.

The 32-year-old Prochazka is a very dangerous striker with a warrior’s mentality. He relishes being on the offensive, and his unrelenting aggression, finishing power and unorthodox technique has produced impressive results, claiming no less than 26 finishes via strikes from 30 career victories. And it’s worth noting that three of his other wins were by submission, further demonstrating his commitment to finishing his opponents by any means necessary. However, while Prochazka can wrestle as well, it isn’t his forte and he does prefer to stay upright. The main problem for Prochazka though is that even when he’s hurt, defense (and concern for his own personal safety) tends to be cast aside in favor of even more offense. And while he’s often able to fight through the kind of adversity that might stop others in their tracks, he’s not invincible, as Pereira has now demonstrated twice via TKO, and he’s been stopped on two others occasions in the past.

The 33-year-old Hill is also a striker who possesses explosive power. He tends to fight from range, although he won’t have his normal long-limbed reach advantage here as Prochazka has similar measurements. Hill has good speed, a diverse arsenal of striking options and likes to maintain a high-output approach throughout. He isn’t as much of a wild-man as Prochazka and doesn’t overcommit on his strikes as much, but he’s still attack-minded, and that does leave gaps in his defense at times. And Hill is also coming off the first KO loss of his career, so it’ll be interesting to see how he responds to that. Meanwhile, Hill isn’t out of his element on the mat, but is unlikely to take the fight there himself, and doesn’t have any submission wins on his record.

This should be a barnburner for as long as it lasts as both of these fighters will be looking for a kill-shot, and have the power to stop each other at a moment’s notice. In terms of sheer heart, ferocity and mental strength, Prochazka has the advantage here. However, his default mode is to throw caution to the wind, and while that’s worked out for him a lot in the past, it’s always a big risk. And given that Hill also has blistering power, but is less reckless, I’ll say he’s the one who gets a second round TKO finish here.

Prediction: Jamahal Hill to win by TKO in Rd2.

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Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano Prediction

Beneil Dariush took a year out after suffering TKO and KO losses in 2023 and now returns to fight the in-form Renato Moicano, who is on a four-fight winning streak.

The 35-year-old Dariush has said in the build-up to this fight that a loss to Moicano could signal the end of his career. Dariush has been through tough times before – he suffered two nasty KO losses in 2017-2018 that led to concerns that his chin was gone, before rebounding with an eight-fight winning streak. However, being finished by both Charles Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan in less than a round in 2023 resurfaced those old concerns, and when it emerged he’d also suffered a further KO and a couple of knockdowns in training that year too it was clear an extended lay-off was required. Dariush has duly obliged, and hopefully his durability has improved in the past 12 months as there’s no doubt he’s a talented fighter. His ground game in particular is impressive, with good takedowns, very strong control on top, and the kind of composure that comes from having elite-level grappling ability. Chin-issues aside, Dariush is also a solid striker too who wields notable knockout power in his punches.

Conversely, the also 35-year-old Moicano is enjoying the best form of his UFC career at the moment, racking up four big wins over Brad Riddell, Drew Dober, Jalin Turner, and most recently Benoit Saint Denis to break into the lightweight top 10. Coincidentally, it was only a few years ago that there was also question marks over Moicano’s chin after he was finished three times by strikes between 2019 and 2020. He’s managed to put that behind him though in the years since and has since become a ruthless finisher in his own right, with five of his last six fights ending by either strikes or submission. His BJJ ability is particularly well-honed and he’s adept at taking opponents backs and finding chokes. He also has good striking technique too though, particularly with punches and kicks from range.

Moicano certainly has the advantage in terms of momentum and confidence heading into this one. I do suspect that he could be on a similar trajectory as Dariush though, in that his winning streak could come to an abrupt halt at some stage as his former chin-issues come back to haunt him. And Dariush certainly has the power to test that theory, and he’s also accomplished enough on the mat to foil Moicano’s attempts to submit him. So, while I must admit I really do fear for just how bad Dariush’s durability might be now, I still feel he’s the better fighter of the two overall and will make use of his heavy hands to earn a TKO finish mid-way through the fight.

Prediction: Beneil Dariush win by TKO in Rd2.

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Kevin Holland vs. Reiner de Ridder Prediction

Kevin Holland has gone 1-1 since a move back up to middleweight last year and now takes on former two-division ONE FC champion Reiner de Ridder, who defeated Gerald Meerschaert in his Octagon debut late last year.

The 32-year-old Holland is a dynamic striker who uses his long limbs to strike from range with good power in his punches down the pipe and a versatile selection of kicks. Despite having an 81″ reach, that’ll only give him an extra couple of inches over his opponent, who has an extra inch in height. Holland also strikes well at closer quarters, where he makes good use of elbows and knees. Holland’s previous stint at 185lbs went fairly well until he ran into high-level wrestlers who were able to take him down and hold him there, which sparked his retreat to 170lbs back in 2021. Since then Holland has tried his best to shore up his weaknesses, and he does have better takedown defense and his top-side jiu-jitsu is respectable, but it still feels like he’s vulnerable to being stifled on the mat by stronger wrestlers.

The 34-year-old de Ridder compiled a lot of experience during a 17-2 run on the European and Asian circuits before finally joining the UFC. His biggest strength is his well-developed, methodical grappling ability, which enables him to control opponents, take the back and work for submission opportunities – notching up 12 finishes in his career, including that arm-triangle finish of Meerchsaert in his first UFC appearance. De Ridder also perhaps did a bit better in the striking department in that fight than was expected as his stand-up has often looked fairly onconvincing, with his lack of speed, power and clean technique meaning he generally tries to just take opponents down early and often instead. De Ridder’s cardio is also questionable too.

It’ll be interesting to see how this one plays out. On the feet there’s no doubt that Holland has a major advantage as he’s far more skilled, athletic and potent. The question then is whether he can defend takedowns and keep the fight standing. On the plus side, De Ridder is more of a grappler than the kind of pure wrestling powerhouse that tends to give Holland the most trouble. However, Holland’s decision-making and game-planning can be poor at times, which may present opportunities for de Ridder to get the fight where he wants it. I’m going to say that Holland keeps him at bay with his strikes from range early on though, and as de Ridder gets more desperate to find a takedown that’ll result in him getting TKO’d in the 2^nd round.

Prediction: Kevin Holland to win by submission in Rd2.

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UFC 311 Prelims

(Predicted winners in bold)

Payton Talbott vs. Raoni Barcelos
Jailton Almeida vs. Serghei Spivac
Grant Dawson vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira
Karol Rosa vs. Ailín Pérez
Rinya Nakamura vs. Muin Gafurov
Ricky Turcios vs. Bernardo Sopaj
Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Clayton Carpenter