UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 Predictions

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, United States. – and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below, and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!

Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway 2 Prediction

Almost five years to the day since he broke his leg during a trilogy fight with Dustin Poirier, former two-division champion Conor McGregor finally returns to the Octagon on Saturday night. He’ll be fighting at welterweight in a rematch with former featherweight and ‘BMF’ champ Max Holloway, who he previously defeated by unanimous decision some 13 years ago.

Though McGregor has always carried a reputation as someone who doesn’t shy away from tough fights, it is still somewhat surprising that he’s agreed to fight someone of Holloway’s calibre for his first fight back after such a long time out. After all, he’ll be just a few days shy of his 38th birthday come fight night, and won’t just be trying to overcome any potential ring-rust that comes from such a long time away from competing, but also the physical and psychological hurdles resulting from the brutal leg injury he suffered the last time he set foot in the Octagon. McGregor’s mental strength and self-belief has always been a strong point though, and despite his well-documented partying and legal troubles in recent years, he does appear to be in a good place physically and mentally heading into this fight.

The Holloway fight does present a clear advantage for McGregor due to it taking place at 170lbs, as he’s naturally bigger and has previous experience there, while ‘Blessed’ has never fought beyond 155lbs. Even at a lower weight class there’s no doubt that ‘The Notorious’ also carries a major power advantage here, and has an extra 5″ in reach too. And despite being known for his larger-than-life personality, McGregor is also a genuinely talented striker whose timing, shot selection and killer instinct in the heat of a battle is at a very high level.

On the other hand, cardio has often been an issue for McGregor, particularly at 170lbs, and given that he wasn’t able to completely fix that in his prime years, that could prove to be a big factor in this fight. And on the other end of the equation, while we don’t know for sure how the 34-year-old Holloway will cope up at welterweight, his cardio has been exceptional over the years. As a clinical boxing technician, Holloway makes the most of that with his very high-volume combinations to the head and body from start to finish rather than just trying for one fight-ending blow. Holloway also has good footwork and maintains distance well, but yet he can still be hit, and that is a concern as despite having a granite chin he does have a lot of miles on the clock now, and was KO’d by Ilia Topuria for the first time in his career just a few fights ago.

Questions over McGregor’s level of ring-rust and how Holloway will cope with going up another division won’t become clear for certain until Saturday night, which only adds to the intrigue here. I do expect McGregor to be a threat early in the fight as he presses forward and looks to test Holloway’s chin. ‘Blessed’ will be expecting that though and I can see him taking his time to feel his way into the contest here rather than getting caught up in an early fire-fight. And the longer the fight goes, the more the momentum should swing in his favor as McGregor likely tires and Holloway’s volume increases accordingly. It’s possible that the cumulative damage eventually takes the wind completely out of McGregor’s sails late on, but I’ll say Holloway isn’t able to land a finishing blow and settles for a decision victory.

Max Holloway to win by decision

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Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoit Saint Denis Prediction

Paddy Pimblett’s seven-fight winning streak in the UFC was halted by Justin Gaethje back in January and now he looks to get back on track against Benoit Saint Denis, who is on a three-fight unbeaten run.

The 31-year-old Pimblett had to dig deep and show his heart and durability to make it to the final bell against Gaethje. He did still make the fight fairly competitive though, and while he took a lot of damage it doesn’t look quite so bad in hindsight when you consider ‘The highlight’ has since went on to TKO Ilia Topuria in a brutal beatdown. Truth be told It’s far from the first time that Pimblett has had to fight through adversity in the Octagon though as he can be far too hittable at times. However, up until his last fight he’d always managed to battle back and find a way to win, either via his own very respectable punching power and gradually improving boxing technique, or his confident and crafty grappling game that’s racked up 10 submission wins throughout his career. So he certainly has some good finishing weapons, and is as tough as nails, but he needs to tighten up defensively at this level as he can’t rely on his chin holding out forever.

Speaking of durability, the 30-year-old Saint Denis is also a fighter who leaned on his toughness while imposing his all-action style on opponents early in his UFC run, delivering a number of finishes via strikes. He found out the hard way how that style can backfire though when he was KO’d by Dustin Poirier and then TKO’d by Renato Moicano in the space of a few months back in 2024. That raised fears that his chin might be going, and BSD seemed to adapt accordingly, making more use of his wrestling and proven grappling ability that had served him very well on the regional scene. And sure enough he’s since got back on track with a couple of submission wins, while last time out he earned a ground-and-pound TKO finish over Dan Hooker.

This feels like a well balanced fight, with both men being a threat wherever the fight goes. Pimblett’s stubborn durability feels like it gives him the edge on the feet though, and so I do think BSD will be looking for opportunities to get this fight to the mat. That’s a risk in itself though as while he might have a bit of a wrestling advantage, ‘The Baddy’ is arguably at his best when he’s able to grapple. So it’s a fight that really could go either way, but I’ll take Pimblett to hold his own in the early grappling exchanges and then punish his opponent on the feet in the 2nd round for a TKO finish.

Paddy Pimblett to win by TKO in Rd2

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Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista 2 Prediction

Cory Sandhagen comes in off an unsuccessful bantamweight title challenge last October to rematch Mario Bautista, who has only lost once in his last 10 fights.

The 34-year-old Sandhagen has now fallen short in two title fights and two title eliminators during his 11-5 UFC run, but he’s beaten a lot of good opponents over the years. That includes his next opponent Bautista, who suffered a 1st round armbar submission loss to Sandhagen in his UFC debut back in early 2019. That was no mean feat as it still remains Bautista’s only defeat by submission all these years later. However, while Sandhagen is capable of working on the mat when required, including mixing in the occasional takedown, he’s best known for his versatile striking ability, working kicks to all levels alongside his punches from range, while also having good knees and elbows at closer range, and good accuracy with his occasional spinning attacks.

The 33-year-old Bautista is a hard-working fighter with a solid all-round skill-set who uses his good conditioning to push a hard pace and apply pressure for the full 15 minutes. He lacks a cutting edge on the feet, but looks to make up for that by staying active with his high-volume offense, while he can also deploy a stifling clinch game too. Bautista will also hunt out takedown opportunities, and when on the mat opponents have to be wary of his submission threat that’s delivered 7 finishes, including over Vinicius Oliveira last time out.

Sandhagen has no problem fighting at a high pace and he’s the more effective and dangerous striker of the two, and is no pushover on the mat, so I’ll take him to win out by decision here.

Cory Sandhagen to win by decision

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Brandon Royval vs. Lone’er Kavanagh Prediction

Brandon Royval comes in off back-to-back defeats last year to fight Lone’er Kavanagh, who beat former champ Brandon Moreno last time out.

A former interim title challenger, the 33-year-old Royval suffered a 1st round KO loss last time out. Given that it was only the 2nd time in his career that Royval had been finished by strikes that could just be put down to Manel Kape being a particularly hard-hitting flyweight. However, it’s a bit more concerning given that early last year Royval had to postpone a fight due to suffering a couple of concussions in training, though he did make it five full rounds against Joshua Van in an all-out war a few months later. Regardless, Royval is the type of fighter who knows no other way than to go full-steam-ahead in his fights, pushing a hard pace with very high-volume striking, while mixing in a wide variety of techniques in the spur of the moment. Despite that, he’s not actually a big finisher on the feet, but he keeps the same frenetic energy on the mat with constant movement and scrambles, and has 9 submission wins on his record.

The 27-year-old Kavanagh is a well-regarded prospect out of England who performed well in the Cage Warriors promotion, before winning by KO on the Contender Series and then claiming victory in his first two UFC bouts. A KO loss to Charles Johnson in August of last year threatened to derail his momentum, but he was then given a late-notice opportunity to headline an event against Brandon Moreno back in February and went on to win by unanimous decision. Kavanagh impressed on the night by not only applying his fast, dynamic kickboxing well, but also demonstrating his composure and good conditioning to best the experienced former champion over five rounds.

Kavanagh looks like he can live up to his potential, and I think his slick technical striking, cool head under pressure and reliable cardio will serve him well while dealing with Royval’s all-action style. I think Kavanagh lands the better strikes here, perhaps hurt him at some point, and emerges with a win by either late stoppage or decision.

Lone’er Kavanagh to win by decision

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King Green vs. Terrance McKinney Prediction

King Green is on a three-fight winning run as he now prepares to fight Terrance McKinney, who is 3-2 in his last five fights and coming off a 24 second KO victory over Kyle Nelson.

Green will be 40-years-old in a couple of months time, and just over a year ago there were doubts about how much longer he might continue after suffering three 1st round losses in four fights, including two by KO. Green had other ideas though and has since proven he’s not over the hill by convincingly beating the likes of Daniel Zellhuber and Jeremy Stephens. He’s a crafty veteran whose unorthodox defense, punches from unexpected angles, and ability to set traps and land accurate counter-strikes makes him difficult to deal with, while he’s also capable on the mat too. His style is risky though and relies a lot on quick reflexes and durability, which becomes more challenging at his age, and that’s reflected in the fact that four of his six career losses to strikes have come in the past four years.

Whether he wins or loses, the 31-year-old McKinney is hell-bent on ensuring that the fight ends as quick as humanly possible. And he’s been very successful in that regard as he’s never gone to the scorecards in his 18-8 career, with all but four of his fights being wrapped up in the opening round. To put a finer point on it, McKInney’s 8-5 run in the UFC includes a 7 second KO victory in his promotional debut back in 2021, while more recently he’s won in both 20 and 24 seconds. He can be stopped just as swiftly though, including in just 37 seconds a couple of years ago. He’s as aggressive a starter as you’ll see in the Octagon, charging out the gates with a whirlwind of offensive techniques, whether that’s power punches, kicks, knees or elbows, while he’s also happy to create chaotic scrambles and pounce on a submission. There’s no real thought towards defense or cardio management though, and so his initial intensity can just as easily run him head-first into fight-ending trouble on the feet and on the mat.

Green works best when he can lure fighters into playing his game, but McKinney is pre-programmed to seek-and-destroy regardless of what his opponent is trying to do, and as flawed as he is I do think that could pay off for him here as his power will severely test the veteran’s weakening chin early in the fight, leading to a 1st round TKO victory. On the other hand though, if Green can survive that opening few minutes I do think he would be well set to go on and win.

Terrance McKinney to win by TKO in Rd1

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UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 Prelims

(Predicted winners in bold)

Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov
Gable Steveson vs. Elisha Ellison
Cody Garbrandt vs. Adrian Yañez
Luke Riley vs. Kai Kamaka III
Tracy Cortez vs. Wang Cong
Damian Pinas vs. César Almeida
Ryan Gandra vs. Zachary Reese
Alessandro Costa vs. Cody Durden

MMA Writer

Ross Cole

Ross Cole is one of the most prolific mixed martial arts writers in the world.

Having written more than 22,000 MMA news stories for MMA Insight, which he founded in 2009 as a way to channel his passion for the sport of mixed martial arts.

Few people know the UFC and the sport of MMA like Ross, and he has built a solid reputation for being one of the best MMA tipsters in the world.

You can read more of Ross's work at MMAInsight.com.