UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez Predictions

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UFC Fight Night 283: Medic vs. Rodriguez takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the Belgrade Arena in Belgrade, Serbia. – and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below, and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!

Uros Medic vs. Daniel Rodriguez Prediction

Uros Medic has stopped his last three opponents in under 90 seconds each via strikes and now goes up against Daniel Rodriguez, who is also on a three-fight winning streak.

The 33-year-old Medic is known to be an aggressive, fast-starting finisher, with all 13 of his career wins coming inside the distance, and more often than not in the opening round. He has a high-volume kickboxing style with proven punching power and will also look to mix in the occasional spinning attack too. Meanwhile, though the vast majority of his wins have been via strikes, he does have a couple of triangle choke finishes from early in his career. However, in general his ground game has been less convincing as he doesn’t have the best takedown defense and has lost twice in the UFC to submissions. He was also KO’d in just 31 seconds by Panahale Soriano early last year as well, highlighting the fact that his offensive style can leave him vulnerable defensively.

It’s been a rollercoaster few years for the 39-year-old Rodriguez, who had been a quietly consistent performer in the UFC for a number of years, only to hit a sudden slump in form back in late 2022 that led to three losses in a row. He shook off some concerns that age was catching up to him by winning his next three against other veterans like Kevin Holland and Santiago Ponzinibbio, only to then seemingly vanish in the 2nd half of last year. It was only in April of this year that ‘D-Rod’ resurfaced, revealing that he’d spent the previous eight months in a Mexican jail after being arrested for possession of Marijuana. At his best Rodriguez is a striker with a good work ethic who works behind solid boxing fundamentals, making good use of the jab to set up his attacks to the head and body, while he is also decently capable on the mat if required. Overall it’s a style more focused on volume and consistent pressure than raw power, which can soften opponents up for a late finish or win on the scorecards.

Spending the best part of a year in a jail with limited opportunities to train properly is far from ideal at this late stage in D-Rod’s career, and with Medic coming in with real momentum on home soil and clearly having the power advantage here I think he can deliver a 2nd round TKO victory.

Uros Medic to win by TKO in Rd2

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Jan Blachowicz vs. Navajo Stirling Prediction

Former UFC light-heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz has had two losses and two draws over the past few years and now goes up against Navajo Stirling, who comes in on short-notice with a perfect 10-0 career record, including five wins in the Octagon.

Blachowicz is now 43-years-old, which would go some way to explaining why he’s only won once in his last six fights since briefly holding the 205lb title back in 2021. Despite having fought for almost two decades, Blachowicz is still not at the stage where his chin has gone though, with all his recent fights having gone to the scorecards, even against heavy-hitters like Alex Pereira and Carlos Ulberg. However, he’s certainly well past his physical prime and has had numerous injuries over the years, so his pace, speed and output has slowed significantly over the years. He remains a technically sound striker though who can operate on the counter from range with assured boxing fundamentals and impactful kicks, backed up by solid wrestling and grappling. Along with his continued durability and high-level experience that’s made him hard to beat decisively, but at this late stage in his career the wheels could fall off at any moment.

Stirling is the much fresher fighter here at 28-years-old, and has the confidence that comes from remaining undefeated 10-fights into his career. That being said, while he already has several UFC fights under his belt, he’s not faced much in the way of notable opposition yet, with his biggest win coming last time out by TKO’ing Ion Cutelaba. Stirling actually started out competing in muay thai, before transitioning to MMA in 2022, so that’s still very much his foundation in the Octagon. He’s a good sized, athletic light-heavyweight with proficient striking technique who will look to stay active offensively with punches, kicks, knees and elbows, and has respectable power that’s delivered six stoppage wins so far. His takedown defense could still use work however, but he has shown some ability to work back to his feet when grounded.

A few years ago this would have been a match-up that would favor Blachowicz, but it’s hard to back him at 43-years-old against a younger, faster, technically capable striker with good volume like Stirling. So, while things could get interesting if Blachowicz commits fully to wrestling, I think Stirling outlands him over three rounds to win by decision.

Navajo Stirling to win by decision

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Aleksander Rakic vs. Marcin Tybura Prediction

Aleksander Rakic will attempt to halt a four-fight skid by moving up to heavyweight for a fight with Marcin Tybura, who has lost twice in the past 12 months.

Five years ago Rakic was in a very different spot, holding a 14-2 career record at 205lbs, including a 6-1 UFC run that pushed him close to title contention. The years since have gone terribly for him however, starting with suffering a TKO loss to this event’s headliner Jan Blachowicz in 2022 due to an ACL injury that would then keep him out of action for two years. Since returning the 34-year-old has lost three more times, and worryingly two of those were by TKO. Rakic is a technical kickboxer who showed off his stopping power early in his UFC run, but over time has become more patient / cautious and is happy to just best his opponents over three rounds. Rakic has also leaned more into his relatively solid wrestling game at times too, but he isn’t known for being much of a submission threat on the mat.

The 40-year-old Tybura is a veteran who has been a steady but not spectacular heavyweight for most of his UFC run, managing to pick up a respectable number of wins over mid-to-lower tier fighters, while coming up empty-handed against leading fighters in the weight-class. He’s never been the strongest, fastest or hardest-hitting heavyweight, but he’s a capable all-rounder who sticks to the fundamentals on the feet, primarily with boxing and clinch-work, and can use his wrestling to work in some takedowns too and hunt for the occasional submission. He stays methodical, doesn’t take many risks and has dependable cardio, which has been enough to carve out a role as a gatekeeper in the division. He’s not particularly durable though, with six of his 11 career losses coming via strikes, and at this age his skill-set is gradually eroding.

Despite his poor run of form I do think this could be a winnable fight for Rakic up at heavyweight as he’s the more talented and athletic striker and has good enough wrestling to contend with Tybura in that regard, so I’ll take him to cautiously navigate his way to a much-needed decision victory.

Aleksander Rakic to win by decision

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Dusko Todorovic vs. Robert Valentin Prediction

Dusko Todorovic and Robert Valentin have identical records in their last four UFC fights as both are coming off a submission win after losing their previous three.

The 32-year-old Todorovic has never really had a solid run of form during his near six-year run in the UFC, going just 4-6 so far. Todorovic has a background in taekwondo, but is primarily a pressure striker who is always on the hunt for a finish, throwing his strikes with plenty of power and being aggressive in the clinch too. All but one of his 13 career victories have come inside the distance, with eight coming via strikes, while he also has a black belt in BJJ, which has helped him to 4 submission finishes. A real problem for Todorovic is that he’s not the best at steering clear of strikes coming back in his direction, while four of his six defeats in the UFC being via TKO (although admittedly one of those was due to a knee injury).

The 31-year-old Valentin’s quick submission win last time out was essential as with an overall career record of just 11-6 he’s still to really prove that he can hold down a spot on the UFC roster. Valentin is a tall, lean middleweight who will have a 1″ height and 3″ reach advantage here. He is a bit of an oddity striking wise as he lacks some of the basic boxing foundations of a stand-up game, instead tending to favor kicks and spinning attacks. And meanwhile he also has questionable durability with two of his three UFC fights having ended by TKO. It’s probably just as well then that Valentin’s ground game is his primary focus, where he has ok wrestling and respectable offensive grappling. He’s got a reliable rear-naked choke that accounts for six of his seven submission wins, while he can also work for some ground-and-pound too. He looks less convincing from his back though and he doesn’t have the best takedown defense.

Both fighters here are struggling to keep their head above water at the UFC level, but I lean towards Todorovic here as I think he’s more potent on the feet and isn’t a pushover on the mat either. As such I’ll take him to deliver a 1st round TKO finish here.

Dusko Todorovic to win by TKO in Rd1

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Vlasto Cepo vs. Gilbert Urbina Prediction

Vlasto Cepo arrives in the UFC for his debut with a 14-3 career record and will be going up against Gilbert Urbina, who comes in off back-to-back 1st round defeats by strikes.

Serbia’s own Cepo is 31-years-old and has been fighting in the Oktagon promotion for the past few years, where he’s continued to cultivate his reputation as an aggressive, heavy-handed finisher. All 14 of his career wins so far have been stopped inside the distance, with just one going beyond the 1st round. Cepo’s early exertions can take a big toll on his cardio though and that’s reflected in the fact that all three of his losses have come in fights that have gone beyond the opening five minutes. On top of that he also has dubious striking defense, and though he has a handful of submission wins on the regional scene his ground game is actually really quite poor.

Urbina first emerged via TUF season 29, where he was KO’d by Tresean Gore in the semi-finals, only to then land a spot as a finalist as a late replacement. Bryan Battle submitted him though to win the show, and things haven’t got much better since as though he did earn a TKO victory in his next fight he’s since gone on to be KO’d by Charles Radtke in the first round and TKO’d by Uros Medic in 63 seconds. Urbina is a bit scrappy on the feet, but he pushes the pace and can grapple too, being quite capable in scrambling situations.

Truth be told these are two flawed fighters. Urbina has better mat work and cardio than Cepo, but his questionable chin will be tested early in this fight and I think that’ll enable Cepo to mark his debut with a 1st round TKO victory.

Vlasto Cepo to win by TKO in Rd1

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UFC Fight Night 283: Medic vs. Rodriguez Prelims

(Predicted winners in bold)

Miloš Janičić vs. Noah Gugnon
Ľudovít Klein vs. Tofiq Musayev
Oban Elliott vs. Michael Oliveira
Mark Vologdin vs. Josias Musasa
Dennis Buzukja vs. Bogdan Grad
Mateusz Rębecki vs. Kyle Prepolec
Nina Nikolija Milošević vs. Hailey Cowan

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MMA Writer

Ross Cole

Ross Cole is one of the most prolific mixed martial arts writers in the world.

Having written more than 22,000 MMA news stories for MMA Insight, which he founded in 2009 as a way to channel his passion for the sport of mixed martial arts.

Few people know the UFC and the sport of MMA like Ross, and he has built a solid reputation for being one of the best MMA tipsters in the world.

You can read more of Ross's work at MMAInsight.com.