UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi Predictions

UFC Fight Night 246 takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at Rogers Place in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada  and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!

UFC Fight Night 246 Predictions

Brandon Moreno vs. Amir Albazi Prediction

Former flyweight champion Brandon Moreno is coming off back-to-back losses as he now prepares to fight Amir Albazi, who has gone 5-0 in the UFC so far.

Given that he’d already beaten Brandon Royval by TKO a few years ago and had appeared to grown as a fighter since then, Moreno will have been disappointed to have come out on the wrong end of a split-decision verdict in his rematch with ‘Raw Dawg’ back in February. Still, while he’s been in a lot of wars at this point, the 30-year-old Moreno remains a talented, well-rounded fighter who fights at a high tempo from start to finish. He applies pressure with his well-honed boxing ability that’s become more potent over time, and while he can be hit in return he does have a very strong chin and has never been finished via strikes (or submissions for that matter). Moreno can transition nicely from striking to a solid wrestling at times, and though he’s notched up wins via strikes in more recent times, in general he’s had more success finishing fights courtesy of his submission skills over the years and is very comfortable in grappling exchanges both offensively and defensively.

The 31-year-old Albazi holds a 17-1 career record and impressed during his initial series of wins in the UFC, although his split-decision win against Kai Kara-France last time out was less convincing, with some believing he was lucky to emerge with the victory. Albazi then suffered major setback due to two separate health issues that left him requiring heart and neck surgeries, keeping him out of action for almost a year-and-a-half.  Needless to say there will be big question marks as to how he’ll perform in what’s set to be a tough comeback fight, but his talent in the fighting department is not in doubt. Like Moreno, Albazi has a very well-rounded set of skills. He’s less active than Moreno in the striking department, but he is a sound technical striker and pairs that with good offensive wrestling and an assured submission game.

On a surface level, Albazi’s 17-1 record looks better than Moreno’s 21-8-2 record, but of course ‘The Assassin Baby’ has been fighting the best-of-the-best for years now and picked up invaluable experience along the way, while Albazi is only now starting to go up against leading contenders. Both have similar skill-sets and neither has been finished in their careers, so this looks likely to be a competitive scrap that could well go the distance, and with that in mind Moreno’s high-level experience, his intensity and volume on the feet and the fact Albazi is coming off major surgeries leads me to feel he’ll emerge with his hand raised here after going the distance.

Prediction: Brandon Moreno to win by decision.

Erin Blanchfield vs. Rose Namajunas Prediction

Erin Blanchfield headed into this year with title aspirations at 125lbs after winning six fights in a row, but then suffered a decision loss to Manon Fiorot in March. Now she’ll go up against former strawweight champ Rose Namjunas, whose own hopes of winning the belt were dashed when she too lost to Fiorot in her divisional debut last year, but she has since rebounded with back-to-back victories.

The 25-year-old Blanchfield’s last fight showed that while she’s a willing, determined pressure striker and tougher than you might expect, she is somewhat limited both technically and athletically and as such can be outgunned. That’s not the end of the world though as not only is she young enough to learn and develop from that, but her ground game was always her strongest suit anyway. Blanchfield is a skilled grappler who doesn’t just offer up a submission threat but also mean ground-and-pound too, while she’s also a capable wrestler.

It’s been a decade since Namajunas first burst onto the UFC scene as an unpolished but clearly very talented prospect with a penchant for finishing fights via submission. Of course the now 32-year-old went on to develop a technically polished striking game alongside a more mature and refined approach to game-planning on her way to becoming a two-time 115lb champ. Namajunas has had as many mental battles as physical ones over the years and as such hasn’t always performed to her full potential. And these days she seems more cautious than ever, taking very few risks on the feet, and it’s the same story on the mat where she tends to go for position rather than submission despite her considerable grappling ability.

One advantage Blanchfield has here is that she always shows up ready to give her all and take the fight to her opponent. And in an otherwise closely matched fight that could be the difference between winning and losing, so Namajunas can’t afford to have an off-day here. I do feel that Namajunas is still the slicker, sharper and more savvy striker however, and with her better movement and speed too I could see her doing a good job of countering as Blanchfield marches forward, while also steering clear of potential takedown attempts.  I’ll take ‘Thug’ Rose to emerge with a closely fought decision win here.

Prediction:  Rose Namajunas to win by decision.

Derrick Lewis vs. Jhonata Diniz Prediction

Derrick Lewis has won two of his last three fights as he now prepares to face Jhonata Diniz, who is 8-0 in his career so far, including two wins in the UFC so far.

Just a few months shy of his 40th birthday, there’s no denying the fact that age is catching up to ‘The Black Beast’, but one thing that hasn’t diminished yet is his punching power. Already the current record holder for the most knockout wins in UFC history (15), his latest two victories were by TKO and he can still cover ground faster than you’d expect for a man of his size. Other aspects of his game aren’t faring as well though as he’s become less durable and as such isn’t always the last man standing in heated fire-fights, while he’s easier to keep down on the mat too than in the past when he had a knack for just using brute force to get upright again. And of course cardio was never his strong point, though he does still retain that ability to still be capable of a fight-ending blow even when on the verge of exhaustion.

The 33-year-old Diniz is a former kickboxer who had a stint in Glory among other promotions during a 22-7 run before transitioning to MMA a couple of years ago. As such he’s certainly at an MMA experience disadvantage here, but he can only beat what’s put in front of him though, and he finished his first six fights via strikes in the opening round, before making his UFC debutwith a KO finish of Austen Lane followed by a unanimous decision win over Karl Williams. Diniz’ punching power was consistent through his kickboxing career and he has heavy kicks, but he’s not the quickest and has a tendency to brawl, as you might expect from someone inspired by the golden age of the Brazilian ‘Chute Boxe’ camp.

This is a big step up in competition for Diniz and it could take just one clean connection from Lewis to ruin his evening. Diniz is no stranger to facing dangerous opponents in the kickboxing arena though, going the distance with stars like Rico Verhoeven and Daniel Ghita there, so he won’t be overawed by the occasion. And I think he could find success early with his hard-hitting low kicks, an area that’s a clear vulnerability for Lewis, and given that the veteran’s chin is also not what it once was I’ll take Diniz to find a TKO finish in the 2nd round here.

Prediction:  Jhonata Diniz to win by TKO in Rd2.

Caio Machado vs. Brendson Ribeiro Prediction

Caio Machado and Brendson Ribeiro joined the UFC from the Contender Series last year, but both have since suffered back-to-back losses.

The 30-year-old Machado’s fights in the UFC so far have been at heavyweight, but fast-forward six months and he should be around 50lbs lighter by weigh-in time on Friday in order to compete at light-heavyweight this weekend. Machado is primarily a striker who had showed respectable kickboxing technique and speed, along with decent grappling in his former weight class, but it remains to be seen how that’ll translate against 205lb’ers. He keeps his defense low and as such is hittable, but he’s yet to be finished by strikes or submission in his 8-3 career.

Despite his opponent dropping down a division, the 28-year-old Ribeiro is only an inch shorter than him at 6ft 3″ and actually has an additional 3″ in reach to work with thanks to his notable 81″ wingspan. Ribeiro is very much a kill-or-be-killed style of fighter with only 2 of his 22 career fights making it to the scorecards. His reach enables him to fight well from range, but he’s aggressive and it doesn’t take much to draw him into a brawl at closer quarters. He has good power, but his defense is suspect and he’s been finished three times in the opening round via strikes over the past few years, including being KO’d 101 seconds into his UFC debut. Ribeiro also likes to work in guillotine choke attempts, but while that’s worked out at times on the regional circuit he’s yet to pull it off at the UFC level.

I have some concerns about how Ribeiro’s chin will stand up when fists start flying, but the same could be said of Machado as there’s a big question mark over how his weight cut will go and how he’ll perform down a division. With that in mind I’ll say Ribeiro gets off to a faster, more aggressive start and secures of an early TKO finish.

Prediction:  Brendson Ribeiro to win by TKO in Rd1.

Marc-Andre Barriault vs. Dustin Stoltzfus Prediction

Marc-Andre Barriault has lost his two fights so far in 2024, while Dustin Soltzfus has suffered two defeats in his last three Octagon outings.

The 34-year-old Barriault is a strong, thickly muscled middleweight with a brute-force approach that’ll see him apply constant pressure on the feet, opening up opportunities to unleash hard-hitting strikes in volume or wade into the clinch, while he also has ok takedown defense.  Over the course of his career he’s shown good cardio and has generally been able to count on his durability too, but he was KO’d in 85 seconds last time out. he’s only been knocked out one other time, but given that was a 16 second finish in 2022 it might start to suggest his chin has seen better days.

The 32-year-old Stoltzfus will have concerns about his own durability heading into this one given that he was TKO’d in 19 seconds two years ago and was KO’d late in the first round of his last fight back in June as well. And his UFC was already shaky enough, having lost his first three fights, and though he has since managed to grab the occasional win he’s still only 2-5 overall in the promotion overall. Stoltzfus is a respectable all-rounder though who has decent striking technique, if not having much in the way of speed or stopping power, while he’s also a solid wrestler and has presented more of a threat with his grappling, leading to 6 wins via submission, including a rare ‘twister’ finish. That being said, he has also been stopped twice by submission during his time in the UFC.

I think this is a fight where Soltzfus will really struggle if he can’t keep the fight on the mat, with Barriault’s more impactful striking and higher output leading him to a 2nd round TKO finish.

Prediction:  Marc-Andre Barriault to win by TKO in Rd2.

Mike Malott vs. Trevin Giles Prediction

Mike Malott started his UFC run strongly with a trio of victories, but after a TKO loss last time out he now will attempt to get back to winning ways against Trevin Giles, who is coming off back-to-back defeats.

The 32-year-old Malott is a competent all-rounder who took a few years out from competing mid-way through his career, during which time he served as Team Alpha Male’s striking coach, before returning to action in 2020 and finding his way to the UFC via the Contender Series. He’s an assured striker with respectable power in addition to being a capable wrestler and good grappler, who, as you might expect from someone with a past connection to the TAM camp, has a trusty guillotine choke. Malott went up against a hard-working veteran in Neil Magny last time out, and while he started well his cardio faltered in the end due to the pace his opponent pushed, leading to a TKO loss.

The also 32-year-old Giles is the kind of fighter who is better offensively than defensively, both on the feet and on the mat. And that’s led to an inconsistent 7-6 run in the UFC as while he can lead the dance well with solid technical boxing and good speed, he can also leave himself open to getting caught by big strikes, while it’s a similar story on the canvas with good submission ability, but lapses in concentration at times leading to him being the one getting finished. All three of Giles losses via strikes have come in the past few years, including a KO loss last time out, so his chin is a concern heading into this fight.

Overall I feel that while this fight will be fairly competitive, Malott is more composed and robust in terms of his defense and durability, and with the home crowd cheering him on will deliver a 2nd round TKO finish.

Prediction:  Mike Malott to win by TKO in Rd2.

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UFC Fight Night 246 Prelims

(Predicted winners in bold)

Aiemann Zahabi vs. Pedro Munhoz
Ariane Lipski vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius
Charles Jourdain vs. Victor Henry
Jack Shore vs. Youssef Zalal
Alexander Romanov vs. Rodrigo Nascimento
Serhiy Sidey vs. Garrett Armfield
Chad Anheliger vs. Cody Gibson
Jamey-Lyn Horth vs. Ivana Petrović

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