UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim Predictions

UFC Fight Night 278: Muhammad vs. Bonfim takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas, United States. – and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below, and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!

Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim Prediction

Former 170lb champ Belal Muhammad has lost back-to-back fights for the first time in his career and now gets ready to fight Gabriel Bonfim, who is on a four-fight winning streak.

Muhammad has spent much of his 10-year UFC run fighting his way to a title shot, and was perhaps unlucky not to have received it sooner given that he’d gone on a 10-fight winning streak before finally beating Leon Edwards in the summer of 2024 to win the belt. His time at the top was short-lived though, losing to Jack Della Maddalena in his first defense last year, with Ian Garry then also beating him last November. Muhammad has been something of an overachiever given that he’s never been the most athletic, dynamic or hard-hitting fighters around. Muhammad is a hard-worker though with dependable cardio and durability to go with good fight IQ to make the most of his solid, but not spectacular skill-set. Muhammad has seasoned wrestling and clinch-work, and while he lacks stopping power on the feet he does have sound striking fundamentals and knows how to apply pressure to his advantage. That being said, both his striking and wrestling have come up short in his last two fights, and given that he’ll turn 38 in a months time there is a concern that his best days may now be behind him.

Bonfim is a decade younger than Muhammad, but having turned pro at just 17-years-old he’s an experienced fighter with a 19-1 career record, including a 6-1 run in the UFC so far. Bonfim is a talented all-rounder, including having technically sound kickboxing ability that benefits from his fast hands and footwork, good combination work and having dabbled in pro-boxing earlier in his career. Despite stopping Randy Brown with a knee strike last time out, he’s not actually a big finisher on the feet though, with just 4 wins via strikes to his name. However, it’s a different story on the mat as he’s a solid wrestler with well-versed grappling that’s led him to 13 submission wins over the years. Bonfim’s solitary loss came about due to burning himself out trying to finish the stubbornly tough Nicolas Dalby a few years ago, and while he is generally well-conditioned he’s never had to go beyond the third round before.

Bonfim is younger, quicker and more dynamic in the striking department, as well as having the more dangerous grappling game. As such, If this was a three-rounder my pick might be different as I do rate him. However, in a main event spot I think Muhammad’s stronger wrestling, conditioning and five-round experience could prove invaluable here, enabling him to get the better of the later rounds to edge out a decision win.

Belal Muhammad to win by decision

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Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan Prediction

Brendan Allen comes in off back-to-back wins last year to fight Edmen Shahbazyan, who went on a 3-0 run last year.

The 30-year-old Allen is currently ranked No.4 in the 185lb division after compiling a very respectable 14-4 record in the UFC over the past seven years. Striking isn’t Allen’s forte, but he has capable fundamentals, including solid kicks, and good cardio too. Allen really comes into his own when he uses his wrestling to get the fight to the mat and implement his assured grappling. From there he does a good job of taking the back and delivering rear-naked choke finishes, which account for 11 of his 14 career submission wins.

Shahbazyan arrived in the UFC at a young age, and despite showing early potential the flaws in his game soon became apparent and he began losing more fights than he was winning. He’s always been a potent fighter offensively with a knack for finishing opponents early with a powerful and technically capable array of punches, kicks, knees and elbows, and he has mean ground-and-pound too. That’s resulted in 13 of his 16 career wins coming via strikes, and all but one of those coming in the 1st round. The problem though has been maintaining his cardio if his fast-starting aggression doesn’t resulting in a finish, leaving him winded and susceptible to being stopped via strikes or submission later in the fight. Stringing together a few wins over the past year or so, including a decision victory, has offered some hope that at 28-years-old he might finally be figuring things out, but it still feels far from a sure thing.

Shahbayzan is certainly going to be the more dangerous striker here early on, but Allen has the wrestling and grappling tools to help stifle that, and with his far superior cardio I think it’s only a matter of time before he starts to take full control of the fight, before sinking in a second round submission finish.

Brendan Allen to win by submission in R2

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Fares Ziam vs. Tom Nolan Prediction

Fares Ziam is riding a six-fight winning streak heading into his next fight against Tom Nolan, who is on a four-fight unbeaten run.

The 29-year-old Ziam is tall for a lightweight at 6ft, though remarkably will still be 2″ shorter than his opponent on Saturday night. He will have a 2″ reach advantage that he’ll put to use as he likes to use his patient technical kickboxing from range, picking his moments to unleash punches down the pipe along with quick-fire kicks. That helps him maintain distance and stay fairly sound defensively, but he will mix in some knees and elbows at closer quarters too that have actually delivered KO and TKO victories respectively in two of his last three bouts. It’s worth noting that three of Ziam’s four career losses have come via submission in the 1st round, though the last one was four years ago. He has been working on improving his ground game over time though and has capable takedown defense, while he did have a few submission wins early in his career.

As established above, the 26-year-old Nolan is unusually tall for a 155lb’er at 6ft 2″. Like Ziam he will utilize that with his active long-range kickboxing, while ‘Big Train’s’ knee strikes are also a proven threat that have been responsible for three of his five finishes via strikes. And that’s not where the similarities end as like his opponent he’s mixed in some solid wins over three rounds too. Nolan was TKO’d just 63 seconds into his UFC debut a couple of years ago, but that’s his only loss to date.

Two big men here, and each has proven they can deal with facing other tall opponenets in the past. Nolan has the higher output on the feet, but Ziam is better defensively and I do feel there’s more finesse and athleticism to his game, which will enable him to land the cleaner strikes and emerge with a decision victory.

Fares Ziam to win by decision

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Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna Prediction

Bryce Mitchell has fallen into a pattern of win-one, lose-one over the past four years, and will now attempt to break that cycle as he comes in off a win to fight Santiago Luna, who has won both his UFC bouts so far.

Mitchell made an impact in the early stages of his UFC run, going on a five-fight winning streak that included wins over the likes of Edson Barboza and Andre Fili. He’s become far less consistent in the years since then though, and at the same time his fighting exploits have often became overshadowed by his outlandish comments outside of the cage that have damaged his reputation. However, it’s worth noting that while the 31-year-old has lost three of his last seven fights, they were against top-flight talents in Ilia Topuria, Josh Emmett and Jean Silva. Mitchell is at his best on the mat with skilled grappling and unorthodox wrestling that enables him to control opponents and hunt down submission opportunities with good intensity. Meanwhile, on the feet Mitchell is a willing striker with some power, but he’s less convincing their than on the mat from a technical perspective.

Known as ‘Border Boy’, Luna is still only 21-years-old, but is a perfect 8-0 in his career to date. Luna has a well-rounded skill-set for his age and has demonstrated significant punching power on the feet that’s dropped several opponents and earned him a few stoppage wins. He also has shown good versatility with his takedowns and has four victories via rear-naked choke. Luna is still in development at this age and has work to do defensively in particular, so this is a steep step up in competition for him, having not really fought anybody of any real note previously.

There’s a lot to like about Luna, but I do think this fight is coming a bit too soon for him and so I’ll take Mitchell to get the better of him on the mat to win by decision.

Bryce Mitchell to win by decision

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Iwo Baraniewski vs. Junior Tafa Prediction

Iwo Baraniewski is 2-0 in the UFC so far and now goes up against Junior Tafa, who is 3-5 in his three-year run in the Octagon.

The 27-year-old Baraniewski is undefeated in his eight-fight career to date, and made a strong start to life in the UFC by winning his first two bouts in a combined time of under two minutes via strikes. Baraniewski actually had a background in judo and submission grappling before transitioning to MMA that he is capable of putting to good use. He’s a fast-starter who comes out aggressively with fairly raw striking, but he certainly has power, and can turn his forward momentum into takedowns, leading to his thumping ground-and-pound and submission threat. So far all of his fights have ended in the 1st round, including six via strikes. However, he’s been fighting a weak level of competition, and there’s no evidence to suggest how his cardio will hold up if he has to fight beyond the first round.

The 29-year-old Tafa started his UFC journey up at heavyweight, but didn’t make much of an impact, going just 2-3. He’s since dropped down to 205lbs and looked in better shape, but lost two fights by submission, before earning a 1st round KO against Kevin Christian last time out. Tafa is a former kickboxer who at one point had an indifferent 3-4 run in the Glory promotion. He’s not the most technical striker, but he does have stopping power in his hands and can dish out heavy kicks too. There’s very little to his MMA game beyond that though, with his lack of a ground game being a real weak point.

As long as it stays on the feet Tafa still has a puncher’s chance, but I’d expect Baraniewski to take him down sooner rather than later and find a finish fairly quickly by either strikes or submission.

Iwo Baraniewski to win by submission in Rd1

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UFC Fight Night 278: Muhammad vs. Bonfim Prelims

(Predicted winners in bold)

Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa
Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis
Bruno Gustavo da Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez
Priscila Cachoeira vs. Chelsea Chandler
Jordan Leavitt vs. Joanderson Brito
Jeisla Chaves vs. Yuneisy Duben
Ketlen Souza vs. Ariane Carnelossi

MMA Writer

Ross Cole

Ross Cole is one of the most prolific mixed martial arts writers in the world.

Having written more than 22,000 MMA news stories for MMA Insight, which he founded in 2009 as a way to channel his passion for the sport of mixed martial arts.

Few people know the UFC and the sport of MMA like Ross, and he has built a solid reputation for being one of the best MMA tipsters in the world.

You can read more of Ross's work at MMAInsight.com.