UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Yadong Predictions

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UFC Fight Night 286 takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the SPD Bank Oriental Sports Center in Shanghai, China. – and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below, and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!

Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Song Yadong Prediction

Umar Nurmagomedov comes in off back-to-back wins over Mario Bautista and Deiveson Figueiredo, and now headlines against Song Yadong, who also beat ex-flyweight champ Figueiredo in his last fight.

The 30-year-old Nurmagomedov’s career record now stands at an impressive 20-1, with his only defeat coming early last year when he was beaten by Merab Dvalishvili on the scorecards in their title clash. Nurmagomedov may not yet have the belt-winning credentials of his older brother Usman (PFL champ) or his legendary cousin Khabib, but he continues to be a talented, well-rounded fighter who is still in the title reckoning. On the feet Nurmagomedov is an assured striker, particularly with his active and dynamic kicking game, while he has good speed and footwork to help keep his opponents at his preferred range, which also help him defensively. As you’d expect Nurmagomedov is a well-versed wrestler too and backs that up with good grappling that’s proven to be his main finishing weapon, with 7 submission wins to his name, compared to just 2 by strikes. Nurmagomedov is well-conditioned to go the full five round fights as well, and has 11 decision victories.

Song has been in the UFC for the best part of a decade now, having originally signed up back in 2017 at just 19-years-old. Now in his prime at 28, Song is a good fighter who has managed to beat a number of respected fighters in the Octagon, including the likes of Figueiredo, Henry Cejudo, Ricky Simon, Marlon Moraes and Marlon Vera. However, he has struggled to do so consistently enough in recent years to secure a title shot, with a few losses to other top contenders leaving him at 7-4 over the past five years or so. Song is an athletic, technically sound striker with crisp, accurate boxing, good power and he’ll look to add in some kicks too. He prefers to keep the action upright and has reasonably solid takedown defense to do so, but he can mix in the occasional takedown of his own, and is capable of scrambling back to his feet if grounded.

Nurmagomedov certainly has the advantage on the mat here, but he can also be very competitive on the feet too. Song has the edge in punching power, but Umar’s better footwork and active kicking game will make it tricky for his opponent to consistently get into boxing range, and if he does start finding success he’s likely to be taken down. So I’ll take Nurmagomedov to win here on the scorecards.

Umar Nurmagomedov to win by decision

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Yan Xiaonan vs. Denise Gomes Prediction

Yan has has gone 1-1 since an unsuccessful title challenge a couple of years ago, and now fights Denise Gomes, who is on a four-fight winning streak.

Yan is getting up there age-wise now at 37, and has had mixed fortunes over the past five years, going just 3-4, despite having been on a six-fight winning streak earlier in her UFC journey. That being said, Yan is still a solid technical kickboxer who uses a trusty jab to dictate her active offense and has good speed. She’s not the kind of fighter that’s looking for a big finish though, and in fact despite having a number of stoppage wins prior to joining the UFC, only one of her nine victories in the Octagon came inside the distance. Meanwhile, Yan can be outwrestled and isn’t much of a submission threat, but she has respectable defense and so is hard to finish both on the feet and on the mat.

Despite a 6-2 record in the Octagon over the past four years, this will actually be the 26-year-old Gomes’ first appearance on a UFC main card. Gomes isn’t all that technical and can overcommit when attacking, but her aggressive muay thai striking is bolstered by good athleticism and power. In fact, 7 of her 12 career wins having come via strikes, including stopping Yasmine Jauregui in 20 seconds a few years ago. She can also be a threat with ground-and-pound, but she doesn’t have the best takedown defense or grappling.

Gomes is over a decade younger and more potent offensively, but I think Yan’s high-level experience and cleaner, more technical striking will enable her to frustrate Gomes over three rounds to win by decision.

Yan Xiaonan to win by decision

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Aori Qileng vs. Kai Asakura Prediction

Aori Qileng suffered a TKO loss back in May, while Kai Asakura earned a 1st round KO victory at the same event in Macau.

The 33-year-old Qileng is an experienced fighter who was very active on the Chinese regional scene before he joined the UFC five years ago, and as such now has 40 fights in total under his belt. His run in the Octagon has been a real mixed bag though, only going 4-5 (+1nc), including suffering the only two losses via strikes in his career. Qileng is an aggressive muay thai striker who throws caution to the wind with his emphasis on high-volume offense and a desire to brawl at close quarters. He is also capable in the clinch and can wrestle to bring his solid ground-and-pound into play. His takedown defense isn’t reliable though, and while his three submission defeats came early in his career, he’s only ever mustered one win via tap-out.

The 32-year-old Asakura arrived in the UFC back in late 2024 with a big reputation, having been a two-time Rizin bantamweight champion and holding wins over the likes of Kyoji Horiguchi and Manel Kape. As such he was immediately thrown into a flyweight title fight against Alexandre Pantoja, but suffered a submission loss, before also being caught in a guillotine choke finish by Tim Elliott next time out. However, he showed what he’s all about back in May when he KO’d Cameron Smotherman in less than two minutes. That was no fluke as Asakura has always had potent power punches as well as having dangerous knees and good counter-striking ability, leading to 14 of his 22 career wins coming via T(KO). His ground game isn’t as convincing though, so he will try to keep the action upright.

We’ve got two aggressive strikers here, but I think Asakura is the better fighter overall and he’ll be able to counter Qileng’s more reckless offense early to find a 1st round TKO finish.

Kai Asakura to win by TKO in Rd1

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Su Madaerji vs. Alex Perez Prediction

Su Mudaerji and Alex Perez already fought back in May, but an accidental groin strike in the 2nd round left Perez unable to continue, so they now fight again on Saturday.

In their first fight Perez was looking to pressure with his short flurries of punches, but wasn’t finding it easy to get inside the faster Mudaerji’s 6.5″ reach advantage. Perez also struggled to land his takedowns, but he did threaten with a guillotine choke when his opponent tried to take him down late in the round. Meanwhile, Mudaerji had fired off some kicks in the first five minute, but it was a punch early in the second that dropped Perez, shifting the momentum in his favor. He couldn’t find a finish on the mat though, and upon returning to their feet the accidental groin strike landed to end the fight.

Mudaerji’s ability to fend off takedowns was a significant takeaway from their previous fight, as well as being able to use his extra reach to his advantage. I think this rematch will still be close though, but I’ll take Mudaerji to keep the action upright for the most part and emerge with a close decision victory on home soil.

Su Madaerji to win by decision

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Liu Ce vs. Levi Rodrigues Jr. Prediction

Liu Ce holds a 3-1 career record as he now gets set to make his UFC debut against late replacement Levi Rodrigues Jr, who steps in for Junior Tafa on just a few days notice.

The 29-year-old Ce only has a handful of MMA fights, but he’s a highly decorated kickboxing veteran who previously won K-1’s cruiserweight title and their 30th anniversary open-weight tournament. Ce is a big, athletic 205lb’er at 6ft 5″ with a 78″ reach and as you’d expect has very high-level striking, delivered with speedm accuracy and fight-ending power, including particularly brutal low kicks. However, as is the case for many fighters who cross over after kickboxing careers, Ce’s ground game is weak, as evidenced by his only loss so far in MMA coming via ground-and-pound TKO. That being said, he was never stopped on the feet by strikes in his kickboxing career.

The 29-year-old Rodrigues Jr won the first five fights of his career to earn a spot on the Contender Series last year, which he won by KO in the first round. However, Rodrigues tested positive for anabolic steroids afterwards, leading to a nine-month suspension and the result being amended to a no-contest. He then returned to action just last month, suffering a TKO loss. Rodrigues is a thickly built fighter who will be at a 5″ height and 2″ reach disadvantage here. Rodrigues is a power puncher and has finished all five of his victories via strikes, but he tends to overcommit to his offense, is suspect defensively and underwhelms both technically and athletically.

Ce is the far superior striker here, and given his opponent’s defensive lapses I’ll say that leads the debuting fighter to a 1st round TKO victory.

Liu Ce to win by TKO in Rd1

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Bilal Hasan vs. Nilson Rojas Prediction

Bilal Hasan and Nilson Rojas are both undefeated prospects with matching 9-0 records who will make their UFC debuts in the main card opener.

Hasan is an exciting 25-year-old arrival from the new season of the Contender Series, where he dished out a 45 second TKO victory just a couple of weeks ago. Hasan has a background in taekwondo and has shown off his striking prowess with 7 finishes from 9 career wins so far. Hasan is reasonably tall and rangey for a flyweight and has an impressively dynamic kicking game that’ll see him attack frequently to all levels, including smoothly mixing in spinning attacks. He backs that up by having fast hands too and showed he can work off the counter in his DWCS fight, landing a well-timed right to drop his opponent. Hasan’s ground game is less tried and tested, but he can grapple and has a single submission win on his resume.

The 27-year-old Rojas comes in from the Peruvian regional scene, where like Hasan he’s also been able to claim seven finishes via strikes from his nine wins to date. While he’s just been fighting other local fighters, it’s interesting to note that in the final fight of his amateur run back in 2018 he went up against another fighter on this weekend’s card, Kevin Borjas, losing by unanimous decision. Rojas will be at a bit of a height and reach disadvantage here and has more of a boxing-based style, working well to the head and body. He has good power, but is also able to pace himself with respectable cardio over three rounds.

Rojas is a capable striker, but I think Hasan’s slick, versatile mix of impactful kicks and punches will rule the roost here for a 2nd round TKO finish.

Bilal Hasan to win by TKO in Rd2

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UFC Fight Night 286 Prelims

(Predicted winners in bold)

Namsrai Batbayar vs. André Lima
Rei Tsuruya vs. Kevin Borjas
Xiao Long vs. Francesco Nuzzi
Jack Jenkins vs. Sean Woodson
Lawrence Lui vs. Hector Santiago
Xiong Jingnan vs. Julia Polastri
Ding Meng vs. Cameron Nelson

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MMA Writer

Ross Cole

Ross Cole is one of the most prolific mixed martial arts writers in the world.

Having written more than 22,000 MMA news stories for MMA Insight, which he founded in 2009 as a way to channel his passion for the sport of mixed martial arts.

Few people know the UFC and the sport of MMA like Ross, and he has built a solid reputation for being one of the best MMA tipsters in the world.

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