UFC 313 takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the Prudential Arena in Las Vegas, United States and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!
UFC 313 Predictions
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Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev Prediction
Former UFC middleweight champion Alex Pereira is undefeated in his five-fight light-heavyweight campaign so far and is now looking to make the fourth successful defense of the 205lb title on Saturday night. To do so he’ll have to beat Magomed Ankalaev, whose previous fight for the title back in 2022 ended in a split-draw against Jan Blachowicz, but he’s since managed to extend his unbeaten run in the Octagon to 13 fights.
Given that the 37-year-old Pereira already had a long run as a top-flight kickboxer before fully committing to MMA when he joined the UFC in 2021 it’s remarkable how much he’s been able to accomplish in the Octagon over a relatively short space of time. And despite his success he continues to stay as active as ever, and up to this point hasn’t shown signs that age is catching up to him. Offensively he’s the stuff of nightmares for anyone in the sport, regardless of weight class, thanks to his thunderous, battle-hardened striking ability, including the most devastating left hook in the game, along with fast head kicks and debilitating calf kicks. Elbows and knees are also deadly weapons for Pereira, who is constantly on the prowl at a close enough range where he can take advantage of any openings that he sees. Pereira isn’t immune to being hit though, and of course his rival Israel Adesanya does hold a KO win over him a couple of years ago, but for the most part his powers of recovery are impressive. Meanwhile, Pereira has decent takedown defense and has worked to improve upon it, but despite surviving being taken down by Jan Blachowicz back in 2023, he’s still quite inexperienced on the mat.
The 32-year-old Ankalaev is an experienced and well-rounded fighter who has shown good consistency and composure throughout his UFC run. He’s a well-versed kickboxer who prefers to strike from range and keep his opponents on the end of his solid punches and kicks, but he will be at a 1″ height and 4″ reach disadvantage here. He’s patient in his approach, is a good counter-striker, and is also mindful of his defense, though he doesn’t deal with leg kicks particularly well. The main issue with Ankalaev’s striking style is his output as despite having respectable power he can err too much on the side of caution at times. Ankalaev can also mix in a respectable wrestling and clinch game, and has good control on top, but he’s not known as much of a submission threat.
This is an intriguing fight, and one that could present real problems for Pereira as Ankalaev is calculated, won’t wade in recklessly, and has never lost via strikes. More significantly though, he also has a big advantage on the mat if he opts to make use of his wrestling. Pereira still only needs one moment on the feet to end the fight though and has proven time and time again that he’s a man for the big occasion, but his reign has to end eventually, and I think Ankalaev is well suited to playing the spoiler role here by blending cautious striking with lengthy spells of control on the mat to win on the scorecards.
Prediction: Magomed Ankalaev to win by decision.
Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev Prediction
It’s been almost a year since Justin Gaethje’s stunning last-second KO defeat to Max Holloway in their BMF title clash at UFC 300. Gaethje had been scheduled to fight Dan Hooker this weekend, but when it emerged last week that his opponent had fractured his hand he agreed to instead take on a short-notice rematch with Rafael Fiziev, who he defeated by majority decision two years ago.
The 36-year-old Gaethje continues to be a particularly potent striker with serious knockout power in his fists, together with some of the most destructive low kicks around. He doesn’t just look for one big KO blow though, instead employing a high-intensity, high-volume striking style that he’s able to maintain for as long as the fight lasts. Defensively though Gaethje has been downright reckless at times and welcomes brawls, relying on his natural toughness and refusal to give in to outlast his opponents in a fire-fight. By all accounts his chin should have deserted him years ago, but he has somehow been able to absorb a tremendous amount of punishment without any major signs of decline so far. Of course he is coming off a KO loss though, and given his age there’s always the chance that this could be the start of a downward spiral. He does also have the option of using his wrestling to potentially extend his longevity, but it’s something we rarely see from him.
The 31-year-old Fiziev is also an impressive striker. A former muay-thai fighter, Fiziev has very high-level technique, along with great agility and speed, enabling him to unleash a wide variety of fast, dynamic kicks effortlessly. As such they are his most dangerous weapon, but while he’s not quite as natural powerful as Gaethje, he also punches well and will threaten with knee strikes too. Regardless of what strikes he uses though, Fiziev remains disciplined defensively with a sturdy high guard, and he also has very good balance which feeds into his strong takedown defense.
In their first fight Fiziev had a definite speed advantage and was the cleaner striker, but Gaethje had a bit more raw power and the kind of cardio, unrelenting intensity and mental fortitude as the rounds went on to edge his way to a narrow win. Another back-and-forth battle is almost certain here, but this time there will be more concern about Gaethje’s durability given his last KO loss. On the other hand though, Fiziev is coming in on less than two weeks notice after a year-and-a-half layoff for a damaged ACL, which is very far from ideal. And so with that in mind I lean towards Gaethje here to push the pace and once again be able to dig into deeper energy reserves in the second half of the fight to earn a decision victory.
Prediction: Justin Gaethje to win by decision.
Jalin Turner vs. Ignacio Bahamondes Prediction
Jalin Turner has slid down the lightweight rankings to No.13 in the past couple of years after losing three of his last four fights and will attempt to halt that decline against Ignacio Bahamondes, who is coming off back-to-back wins via strikes in 2024.
The 29-year-old Turner is absolutely huge for the 155lb division at 6ft 3″ tall with a 77″ reach, which makes him difficult to deal with, but Bamamondes is also a large lightweight too, so for a change he’ll only have a 2″ height and reach advantage here. Turner has good speed for his size and notable power in his hands to go alongside his solid kicks. He also has developed functional wrestling and uses his long limbs to accentuate a capable grappling game that accounts for three of his wins in the UFC. Whether on the feet or the mat he likes to pursue a finish from the opening bell, and in fact has finished all of his 14 career victories inside the first two rounds. The downside however is that he’s come up empty-handed in four fights that went the distance, which points to concerns with his cardio in the latter stages of fights, while his TKO loss to Renato Moicano last time out was the fourth time he’s been stopped via strikes in his career.
Like his opponent, the 27-year-old Bahamondes is a big lightweight with finishing power in his punches and versatile kicks, and lately he’s been getting the job done quickly with a 1st round KO and TKO finish in his last two appearances. However, unlike Turner, Bahamondes has also proven he’s able to maintain his pace and volume-striking from start to finish, having also notched up late finishes and decision wins during his 5-2 run in the UFC so far. Bahamondes has good takedown defense and prefers the keep the fight upright, but while he only has one submission win on his record and has been submitted himself a couple of times he can still grapple when required.
This is a well-matched fight in terms of both their skill-set and physicality. Bahamondes comes in on better form, but it’s worth noting that Turner has been consistently fighting a higher-level of opposition of late. I think Turner will have the advantage on the mat if he chooses to use it, but whether on the canvas or in the no-doubt highly competitive striking exchanges he’ll have to work hard to win rounds here, and given that Bahamondes should have the better cardio in the second-half of the fight I’m taking him to emerge with the decision win.
Prediction: Ignacio Bahamondes to win by decision.
Amanda Lemos vs. Iasmin Lucindo Prediction
Amanda Lemos went 1-1 in the Octagon last year after an unsuccessful title challenge the year before and now goes up against Iasmin Lucindo, who is on a four-fight winning streak.
The 37-year-old Lemos is an impactful striker who combines solid boxing and good accuracy with short bursts of serious power. She can also work in the clinch and has some capable grappling and opportunistic submission ability on the mat. That being said, she can be taken down and outwrestled at times, and though she is able to fend of some submission attempts, she did suffer the second submission loss of her career last time out. Despite being in relatively good shape for her age, cardio is a concern for Lemos at this stage in her career and can put some restraints on her output over the course of a fight too.
At 23-years-old, Lucindo is 14-years younger than Lemos, but she has a lot of experience for her age with an overall 17-3 career record, including a 4-1 stint in the Octagon so far. She has good physicality, speed, durability and determination, which helps make up for the rougher edges to her striking technique. She prefers to utilize her boxing at close quarters, but from there can also use her solid wrestling to get control time and look for ground-and-pound opportunities, while she’s a capable grappler too.
This should be a close fight that could go either way, but while Lemos has the edge in terms of pure power, I think the considerably younger, still developing Lucindo can endure some tough moments, and with her advantage in speed and cardio she’ll be in with a good chance to outwork her opponent late in the fight to secure a narrow decision win.
Prediction: Iasmin Lucindo to win by decision.
King Green vs. Mauricio Ruffy Prediction
Bobby King Green dominated Jim Miller at UFC 300 last year and then was then submitted by Paddy Pimblett. Now he takes on a promising Contender Series recruit in Mauricio Ruffy, who is 2-0 in the UFC so far.
Green has turned 38-years-old since his last fight, but he continues to be the kind of experienced, crafty veteran who can still provide a challenge for up-and-coming talents. Green is an unorthodox boxer who manages to be sneakily effectively with strikes from unexpected angles and is good at baiting in opponents with his low guard, head movement and shoulder rolls to avoid strikes and set-up counter-strike opportunities. He also has respectable takedown defense and more often than not is able to stay safe on the mat, although opting to go to the mat with Pimblett in his last fight didn’t go well for him. A developing problem for Green is that his striking style relies a lot on having good reactions and durability, which are assets that are starting to erode for him over time, making it more likely that he will get caught and hurt, if not outright finished.
The 28-year-old Ruffy is only a couple of fights into his UFC run but has already created a bit of a buzz and comes out of the highly regarded ‘Fight Nerds’ camp. Ruffy is a skilled technical striker who will have a 4″ reach advantage here in addition to an extra inch in height. He picks his shots nicely with very good accuracy, has both power and speed in his hands and kicks well too. He stopped every one of his first 10 opponents via strikes, including a 1st round TKO of Jamie Mullarkey in his UFC debut, but last time out we saw that’s not a guarantee as he had to settle for a comfortably win on the scorecards against James Llontop. Ruffy’s striking defense could use some work though and his ground game is fairly untested, while this is certainly a notable step up in competition for him.
Green has a style that can be tricky to deal with, but age is eroding its effectiveness and Ruffy seems to have all the right attributes in terms of speed, skill, composure and power to pose problems for him on the feet. As such I’ll take Ruffy to catch the veteran in the second round, leading to a TKO finish.
Prediction: Maurcio Ruffy to win by TKO in Rd2.
Check UFC Offers!UFC 313 Prelims
(Predicted winners in bold)
Curtis Blaydes vs. Rizvan Kuniev
Joshua Van vs. Rei Tsuruya
Brunno Ferreira vs. Armen Petrosyan
Alex Morono vs. Carlos Leal
Mairon Santos vs. Francis Marshall
Djorden Ribeiro dos Santos vs. Osman Diaz
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