UFC On ABC: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov Predictions

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UFC On ABC 7 takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the Etihad Area in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!

UFC On ABC 7 Predictions

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Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedov Prediction

With three wins in a row the No.2 ranked Cory Sandhagen is right on the verge of title contention at bantamweight, but now he’ll risk his spot by going up against the undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov, who is ranked No.10 after compiling a five-fight winning streak in the UFC so far.

The 32-year-old Sandhagen is 10-3 in the UFC, including big wins over the likes of Frankie Edgar, Marlon Vera, Raphael Assuncao, Rob Font and Song Yadong, while his three losses have all been against former champions in Aljamain Sterling, TJ Dillashaw and Petr Yan. He’s a talented striker who works very well from range with a versatile and dynamic arsenal of offensive weapons. He sends good straight punches down the pipe, and backs that up with a variety of kicks to all levels. He does a nice job of mixing fundamentals with more exotic techniques like spinning head kicks and flying knees to keep his opponents guessing and manages to still be mindful of his defensive responsibilities. He can maintain a high output for five rounds and his active striking helps make it tricky to take him down, while he generally does well to get back to his feet if he is put on the mat.

As the brother of Bellator champ Usman Nurmagomedov and cousin of UFC legend Khabib, the 28-year-old Umar Nurmagomedov has a lot to live up to, and so far he’s done just that, performing well to maintain his unbeaten record. As you’d expect from someone in his family Nurmagomedov is an excellent wrestler with fast entries and well executed takedowns, and he’s also proven to be a skilled grappler whose best chance of finding a finish is via submission. However, what’s interesting about Nurmagomedov is that he’s also a tricky fighter to deal with on the feet thanks to his kick-heavy approach to striking from range. That’s made him hard to hit in return and his ability to suddenly transition to a takedown makes life even more difficult for his opponents.

It’ll be fascinating to see how this one plays out. Sandhagen’s striking ability from range is tried-and-tested at the highest level and is the more potent of the two here, so I think there’s a real chance Nurmagmedov is going to find it more difficult to have as much success there as he has had in the past. Still, Nurmagomedov’s constant takedown threat, speed and unpredictable approach is also going to be a headache for Sandhagen to deal with, and I think if Umar commits more to his wrestling in this fight he’ll be able to get some much need control over the fight and disrupt his opponents striking rhythm enough to eek out a decision victory.

Prediction: Umar Nurmagomedov to win by decision.

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Sharabutdin Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk Prediction

The undefeated Sharabutdin Magomedov has won two fights in the UFC so far to go 13-0 overall. Now he’ll go up against Michal Oleksiejczuk, who has had a rough 2024 so far, suffering two submission losses in a row.

The 30-year-old Magomedov is a very dangerous, dynamic striker with aggressive offense, whether that’s via punches, fast kicks or some of the nastiest knees in the game. Those knees have been the catalyst for a number of his stoppage wins over the years, including his TKO win over Antonio Trocoli just a month ago. Meanwhile, Magomedov bucks the trend of Dagestan fighters who typically are strong wrestlers as he is actually very poor in that department and would much prefer to keep the fight upright.

The 29-year-old Oleksiejczuk will welcome the fact that his opponent isn’t a threat on the mat as he has a very shaky record when fights hit the ground, having been submitted three times in the Octagon since April of last year and 6 times overall in his career. On the feet Oleksiejczuk isn’t the most technical and he’s too hittable for his own good, but he is durable and is definitely a threat with his pressure-heavy style and heavy-handed striking that’s led to 6 of his 7 UFC wins coming inside the distance. Despite Oleksiejczuk’s dodgy submission defense should have a wrestling advantage here if he chooses to use it.

I think Oleksiejczuk will be eager to just indulge in a striking battle though and given his lack of defense and Magomedov’s multi-pronged striking threats and big power I think that’s going to run the Polish fighter into trouble early, leading to a 1st round TKO finish.

Prediction: Sharabutdin Magomedov to win by TKO in Rd1

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Marlon Vera vs. Deiveson Figueiredo Prediction

After an unsuccessful attempt to take the bantamweight title from Sean O’Malley earlier in the year, Marlon Vera now heads into another big fight against former flyweight champ Deiveson Figueiredo, who is 2-0 in the 135lb division so far.

The 31-year-old Vera tends to be a slow starter, but his intensity builds over time and he’s the kind of fighter who can find a finish out of nowhere late in a fight. He’s quite accurate with his strikes, has good punching power and also has a potent kicking game, having KO’d both Dominick Cruz and Frankie Edgar with head kicks as well as hobbling O’Malley a few years ago with calf kicks. Vera’s striking defense is weaker though, relying too much on his chin, but to be fair to him he is exceptionally durable and has never been finished in a fight. Meanwhile, Vera has respectable takedown defense and is comfortable on the mat, making good use of ground-and-pound and submission opportunities.

The 36-year-old Figueiredo moved up to 135lbs after a hard-fought four-fight title series against Brandon Moreno at flyweight that saw both fighters raising each others games, but also leaving a piece of themselves in the Octagon. Still, Figueiredo has been able to dust himself off after being TKO’d for the first time in the final fight between the two and has since looked good up at bantamweight with wins over Rob Font and Cody Garbrandt. Figueiredo will give up 3″ in height and a couple of inches in reach to Vera, but that shouldn’t trouble him too much as he’s a skilled striking technician who can fight at a high pace when required and still has good speed for his age along with solid power. Figueiredo also blends his martial arts together well, transitioning nicely into takedown attempts and has good submission ability, with his guillotine choke being a particular threat.

There’s a case to be made for both fighters here. Vera is likely the harder hitter at 135lbs, and so with Figueiredo now having moved past his prime and not quite as durable as he was in the past, ‘Chito’ will be looking for opportunities to land a killer blow here. On the other hand Figueiredo is a faster starter and will keep that pace going throughout, while I feel he’s a bit more technical and more willing to mix up his striking with mat work. As such I’m taking the Brazilian to get the better of the early action here and survive a late rally from Vera to win on the scorecards.

Prediction: Deiveson Figueiredo to win by decision.

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Tony Ferguson vs. Michael Chiesa Prediction

Tony Ferguson has somehow managed to convince the UFC to give him another chance to get back in the win column despite having now lost seven fights in a row. To stop going into the history book for the longest UFC losing streak ever he’ll have to beat Michael Chiesa, who has also been struggling in recent years with a string of three defeats.

One thing we can say for sure about the 40-year-old Ferguson is that he’s left no stone unturned trying to reverse his fortunes. Last time out he was attempting to send his cardio into overdrive by training with ultramarathon runner David Goggins, which seemed an odd choice given that he’s always had very good endurance. This time around he’s announced that he’s returned to regular sparring for the first time in seven years, claiming to have done at least 120 rounds. Again that seems a curious decision given that part of his problem has appeared to be just simply taking too much damage in striking wars over the years. The other issue has been that he’s become easier to outwrestle and become more vulnerable to submissions, and that could be put to the test on Saturday night.

The 36-year-old Chiesa has been seen more as a UFC analyst than as a fighter in recent years, with his career seeming to fizzle out in 2021 after suffering back-to-back losses. He returned to action in the summer of last year only to be swiftly submitted by Kevin Holland, and now a year later is going to try again to end his losing streak. Stylistically it feels like a good match-up for him as his key strengths are his solid wrestling ability together with having stifling control on top and good back takes, and his rear-naked choke has been a reliable source of finishes over the years. Chiesa is less convincing on the feet though, lacking the speed and power to be effective, while a notable weak point is his defense on the mat, having been submitted 5 times during his UFC run.

Ferguson should be retired by now and this isn’t the kind of match-up that’s likely to allow him to bow out on one last win. Chiesa is much more suited to 170lbs and that size advantage will further aid the success he’s likely to have in getting Ferguson down and keeping him there. Perhaps Ferguson survives until the bitter end, but I’ll take Chiesa to sink in a fight-ending choke before the final bell.

Prediction: Michael Chiesa to win by submission in Rd3.

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Mackenzie Dern vs. Loopy Godinez Prediction

Things haven’t been going Mackenzie Dern’s way lately, suffering three losses in her last four fights. Now she’ll take on Loopy Godinez, who compiled a four-fight winning streak last year, but lost her last fight in March via unanimous decision.

It’s telling that ahead of this fight the 31-year-old Dern has said she’s now trying to move past her desire to just get caught up in trying to brawl with her opponents. That never seemed like a sound strategy given that while she may be tough and has some natural power, she’s never really been a comfortable striker, lacks speed and fluidity in her movement and is vulnerable defensively. And of course the most obvious reason not to just slug it out is that she’s a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu ace who has the ability to tie her opponents up in knots on the mat. However, a big issue has been that she lacks the wrestling ability to ensure she can get the fight to the mat in the first place and so has to resort to less reliable guard-pulling and the occasional scramble, with less than convincing results.

The 30-year-old Godinez will be giving up a couple of inches of height and reach to Dern. That being said, though she lacks Dern’s power, her boxing fundamentals are definitely better and she’ll stay more active, is lighter on her feet, and also does a better job defensively. Godinez shines more in the wrestling department though as she’s strong, has very good takedowns and solid takedown defense too. Meanwhile she also has capable BJJ, but as with her stand-up she’s generally not a notable finisher and would likely have a hard time against someone of Dern’s calibre in the grappling department.

I like that Dern is trying to move away from her brawling tendencies, but if she plans to get back to her roots here and try to use her BJJ I think she’s going to run into the same old problem getting to the mat in the first place against someone like Godinez who has the wrestling to shut down her attempts. And so Dern may resort to trying to be a bit more technical than usual on the feet instead, and I’m not convinced that works out for her, with Godinez being quicker to the punch and more sound defensively, leading her to a decision victory.

Prediction: Loopy Godinez to win by decision.

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Joel Alvarez vs. Elves Brenner Prediction

Joel Alvarez is 5-2 in the UFC so far and coming off a submission win last time out, while Elvis Brenner won his first three fights in the Octagon, but lost on the scorecards in his last appearance.

The 31-year-old Alvarez and 26-year-old Brenner have some similarities, but stature isn’t one of them as Alvarez is unusually tall for the lightweight division, giving him a 4″ height and 5″ reach advantage to work with here. Alvarez is a willing striker who can use his long limbs to strike from range, but is also capable of shortening up with knees and elbows at closer quarters. He’s not much of a wrestler, but when the action hits the mat he’s proven to be a big threat via submissions, which account for 17 of his 20 career victories.

Brenner also tends to have his biggest success on the mat, with 11 of his 16 wins coming via submission, including a notable sprinkling of armbar finishes. However, Brenner is a gritty fighter who also likes to go to war on the feet too, and that worked out for him last year with two finishes via strikes in the UFC. He’s an untidy striker but he puts everything into his punches and throws in the occasional flying knee, while he also leans heavily on his toughness to withstand the fact that he’s careless defensively and as such gets hit a lot. That’s a risky strategy, but so far he’s never been finished by either strikes or submission.

This really feels like it could go either way. However, despite both fighters submission ability I think this one could actually end up being a dogfight on the feet, and in that instance I believe Brenner will prove to be both more durable and the more damaging striker of the two as well, leading him to a 2nd round TKO finish.

Prediction: Elves Brenner to win by TKO in Rd2.

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