UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje Predictions

UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje takes place on Monday (AEDT) at the White House in Washington D.C., United States. – and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below, and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!

Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje Prediction

Unbeaten UFC lightweight champion Ilia Topuria will make the first defense of the title on Sunday night against interim titleholder Justin Gaethje, who is coming off back-to-back victories.

Topuria has always appeared to be a special talent, but he’s made that an undeniable fact in his last three fights by KO’ing three all-time greats in a row in Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway at featherweight, and then Charles Oliveira up at lightweight. Currently in his prime at 29-years-old, the 17-0 Topuria has supreme self-belief and a world-class skill-set to back that up. His striking in particular is at an elite level. He has very fast hands and quick footwork, but just as significant is his speed of thought and swift reactions, enabling him to exploit defensive holes and pick out counter-striking opportunities with great timing and laser-accuracy. The results of that have been devastating, with each of his 7 wins via strikes coming via clean KO. With that kind of ability and power, Topuria is able to fight with calculated composure rather than just coming out with all-guns-blazing, preferring to stalk his prey and then put them to the sword when the time is right. Despite all that, prior to joining the UFC, Topuria actually won seven fights in a row on the regional scene via submission, and has also demonstrated very assured wrestling too. Topuria is a bit undersized up at 155lbs though, and it’s worth noting that in his first ever fight at lightweight back in 2022 he was dropped by Jai Herbert in the first round, before rallying to win by KO early in the 2nd. That was more down to adjusting to Herbert’s very long reach though, which won’t be an issue against Gaethje.

A two-time interim lightweight champ and former ‘BMF’ titleholder, the 37-year-old Gaethje has been one of the UFC’s most consistently entertaining warriors for many years now. When he first arrived in the Octagon back in 2017 as an undefeated 18-0 fighter Gaethje had a reputation for being a completely fearless, high-output striker with a proven record for finishing fights violently, while also being able to withstand a tremendous amount of punishment in return. It was a reckless style that looked destined to end badly in the long-run, but while Gaethje has been stopped a few times over the years since he’s won far more fights than he’s lost against a consistently high-level of opposition, and somehow still has a durable chin. Admittedly he’s refined his approach over the years, becoming more patient, methodical and technical with his volume striking, resulting in more of his fights going to a decision in recent years than in the past. Nevertheless, he still has good power in his hands and some of the hardest low kicks around, which can break down fighters over time, as well as possessing the cardio to go five hard rounds. It should be noted that Gaethje can wrestle too, though he never really uses it.

Gaethje is more than capable of fighting technically, has the size advantage and a useful weapon in his low kicks to utilize, but there’s levels to this game, and Topuria is unquestionably a top-tier operator. I expect the lightweight champ to just prove to be too fast, too clever and too clinical on the feet here, while he also has the advantage on the mat too if required. In the end Topuria’s speed, timing and startling power will combine to deliver a second round TKO finish.

Ilia Topuria to win by TKO in Rd2

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Alex Pereira vs. Ciryl Gane Prediction

After having previously won UFC titles at both middleweight and light-heavyweight, Alex Pereira now moves up to heavyweight to challenge Ciryl Gane for the interim heavyweight belt.

A former kickboxing champion, Pereira’s world-class striking has transitioned over with devastating effect in MMA, with eight of his 10 UFC wins having comes via T(KO), and the vast majority coming against either current or former champion at both 185lbs and 205lbs. Now he’s ready to test himself up another division, and at 6ft 4″ with a 79″ reach he has the frame to do so. In fact he’s revealed that he’s reached as high as 258lbs during camp, before settling at around 242lbs. The 38-year-old Pereira’s potential power at heavyweight is a fearsome prospect, particularly with his left hook, which has already proven to be a deadly weapon, and he’s capable of delivering punishing kicks too with no warning. Despite his long combat sports career, Pereira continues to show impressive durability, while despite having a fairly limited ground game he does have respectable takedown defense to keep the fight where he wants it.

The 36-year-old Gane is not your typical heavyweight as despite standing 6ft 5″ with an 81″ reach he maintains an athletic physique and is surprisingly light and agile on his feet. He’s also patient and methodical in his approach by heavyweight standards, fighting on the outside with clean technique, speed and an assured sense of distance. He works his jab well and has good kicks to the legs and body, and will also pick his moments to dart in and out with more explosive attacks. He has shown finishing power at times, but he has good cardio and is very comfortable just outstriking an opponent over three of rive rounds. Earlier in his UFC run Gane also showed some capable offensive wrestling along with a submission threat, but Francis Ngannou was able to outwrestle him surprisingly easily in their title clash a few years ago, while Jon Jones also quickly took him down and submitted him a year later. Gane has worked on his grappling since then and has also picked up a couple of wins, while he also clearly got the better of the early action against heavyweight champ Tom Aspinall last time out before an eye-poke ended the fight prematurely.

Everyone was eager to see Pereira fight Jon Jones or Tom Aspinall at heavyweight, but Ciryl Gane is a very dangerous opponent too and so this is a really intriguing match-up that could go either way. Pereira is one of the most lethal strikers of all-time in the UFC and he can do a lot of damage in the heavyweight division. However, I think Gane is challenging stylistically for him as he’s big yet also fast, has very good footwork and will make full use of that rather than just standing in front of Pereira and trading blows. Gane’s potential takedown threat could also help him out here, and so while there’s a real chance he gets stopped by Pereira’s left hook, I’m still taking the Frenchman to emerge with a decision victory here.

Ciryl Gane to win by decision

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Sean O’Malley vs. Aiemann Zahabi Prediction

Former UFC bantamweight champion Sean O’Malley began the year with a win over Song Yadong and now fights the in-form Aiemann Zahabi, who is on a seven-fight winning streak.

The 31-year-old O’Malley was flying high until his reign as 135lb champ led to him going up against Merab Dvalishvili in 2024, whose wrestle-heavy style proved to be his kryptonite, resulting in dominant back-to-back defeats. Things are looking up for him again now though with a win under his belt and his nemesis having now been dislodged as champion, opening up a new potential path back to the belt. Aside from Dvalishvili, O’Malley has only lost one other time in 23 career fights, with his high-level technical striking having got the better of the likes of Aljamain Sterling, Petr Yan and Marlon Vera over the years. O’Malley has very good speed, as well as impressive timing and accuracy, which enables him to be a calculated sniper in the Octagon. That said, he also has the ability to overwhelm opponents with high-volume combinations too, and in total 12 of his 19 wins have come via strikes. Meanwhile, though his takedown defense struggled against Dvalishvili, most other fighters have a harder time getting him to the mat.

The brother of a famed MMA coach, Zahabi got off to an indifferent start in the UFC nearly a decade ago, losing two of his first three fights. However, since 2021 he’s slowly but surely compiled extended winning run, with the only drawback being that his habit of fighting infrequently means he’s peaking uncommonly late in his career at 38-years-old. Zahabi isn’t the most athletic and doesn’t have a particularly dazzling skill-set, but he’s become a better fighter over time. He’s made improvements to his pacing and cardio management to get the most of his patient counter-striking, while also being able to mix in some solidly capable wrestling and grappling too. He’s claimed a couple of knockout wins during his time in the UFC, but more often than not he finds a way to win on the scorecards, including showing good resilience and determination to bounce back from adversity to beat Jose Aldo by decision last year.

Zahabi is a solid all-rounder but has always felt like a bit of an overachiever, and I think that will be evident here, with O’Malley’s speed and clinical striking enabling him to boss the stand-up exchanges on his way to a 2nd round TKO victory.

Sean O’Malley to win by TKO in Rd2

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Josh Hokit vs. Derrick Lewis Prediction

Josh Hokit has won all three of his fights in the UFC so far and now goes up against Derrick Lewis, who is coming off a TKO loss in January.

The 28-year-old Hokit was originally an American Football player who was part of the San Francisco 49’ers practice squad for a couple of seasons. Hokit had also been an All-American wrestler in college, and so when his NFL aspirations didn’t go as he’d hoped he then transitioned to MMA in 2023, where he remains undefeated after nine fights, including stints in Bellator and LFA. Hokit hadn’t really fought anyone of note until a couple of months ago when he went up against Curtis Blaydes, a match-up that unexpectedly turned into a crazy slugfest as both men dished out an ungodly amount of punishment for three full rounds, before Hokit emerged with a unanimous decision victory. The fight proved that as well as being athletic, Hokit is also exceptionally tough, especially given that he’s undersized compared to the hulking Blaydes at just 6ft 1″ with a 73″ reach. Despite that he had the determination to constantly go on the attack, pushing through both the pain barrier and point of exhaustion to ensure victory. It was such a wild fight that it earned Hokit an instant call-up to the White House card, with the only drawback being that it’s not given him much time to recover from that damaging war.

Lewis was a late addition to the White House card at the personal request of President Trump, and it’s not hard to see why as the ‘Black Beast’ continues to hold the record for the most knockouts in UFC history (18). That ferocious punching power has delivered two of his last three victories in barely more than 30 seconds each, but he also has a knack for carrying that fight-ending potential deep into fights, meaning he’s dangerous even when he looks completely gassed. Speaking of which, Lewis has never had good cardio, and that’s not helped by the fact he’s now 41-years-old and has been plagued by back problems over the years. As such, he’s only 4-6 in his last 10 fights, and a number of those losses were via strikes. Lewis also has a suspect ground game that often results in him having to rely on strongman tactics to force his way out of bad spots on the mat.

Hokit would do well to use his wrestling here, but I’m not convinced he does so. He’s proven to be fast, fearless and offensively-minded on the feet, so I expect him to take the fight to Lewis and try to overwhelm him with combinations. That could work, particularly if the fight goes beyond the first round, as the heat and humidity will likely drain Lewis’ gas tank even more than usual. The problem is that Hokit’s also extremely hittable, and while Blaydes couldn’t find a finish no matter how hard he tried, Lewis only needs one big punch to close the show against anyone, and even at this late stage in his career I think he’s still capable of doing that here to pull off an early upset win.

Derrick Lewis to win by KO in Rd1

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Mauricio Ruffy vs. Michael Chandler Prediction

Mauricio Ruffy has a 4-1 record in the UFC so far and now fights veteran campaigner Michael Chandler, who has lost four of his six bouts since joining the promotion late in his career.

Ruffy, who will turn 30 next week, has impressed so far during his UFC run thanks to his razor-sharp, versatile striking that’s so far earned him 12 finishes from 13 career victories. That includes TKO’ing another high-level striker, Rafael Fiziev last time out with punches, though the icing on the cake remains his spinning wheel kick KO of King Green last year. Ruffy isn’t just about raw power though as he’s fast too and has shown good composure in the heat of the battle. Admittedly Ruffy’s striking defense isn’t as well-versed, but his real weak-spot was uncovered during a fight with Benoit Saint Denis last year, where he was easily taken down and looked very unconvincing on the mat en-route to a submission loss.

Chandler’s UFC record doesn’t look good, but the 40-year-old has had a memorable career overall. Many of his biggest moments coming while he was one of the Bellator promotion’s biggest stars, winning their lightweight title on three occasions and putting on many memorable wars along the way. Chandler is a well-rounded, athletic fighter who has a strong foundation in his wrestling and is a threat via submissions too, but that often takes a backseat due to his love for striking. Chandler has certainly proven his punching power over the years, while his reliable cardio enables him to push a hard pace and strike in volume. However, despite having the intellectual capability to fight smartly and mix his martial arts, Chandler has always been way too willing to just engage in an all-out brawl. And while he’s been able to win a good number of fights like that in thrilling fashion, it’s also led to him taking a lot of damage and being stopped at times, so he has a lot of wear and tear at this late stage in his career.

If Chandler uses his wrestling early here then there’s a path to victory, but on this stage in particular I think it’ll be all too easy for him to just default to putting on a show by letting his fists fly. I don’t see that working out well for him against the taller, rangier Ruffy, who is the more accurate, efficient striker and has the power to trouble the veteran’s aging chin, leading to a 1st round TKO finish.

Mauricio Ruffy to win by TKO in Rd1

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Bo Nickal vs. Kyle Daukaus Prediction

Bo Nickal has gone 5-1 in the UFC so far and is coming off a KO victory as he now prepares to go up against Kyle Daukaus, who is 2-0 since returning to the Octagon last year.

The 30-year-old Nickal was one of the most hyped prospects to arrive in the UFC in quite some time back in 2023 due to his elite wrestling credentials, with many tipping him as a future champion. He appeared to transition to MMA smoothly, winning his debut on the regional scene via KO and then securing two swift submissions in less than two-minutes combined on the Contender Series. His first few fights in the UFC largely went according to plan with three finishes, but he made heavy weather of his next fight against Paul Craig that showcased his fairly basic, uninspired striking game, leading to him settling for his first decision win. That fight felt like an early warning that his stand-up needed serious work, and sure enough in May of last year he clearly came off second-best against Reiner de Ridder and didn’t react well to being hurt on his way to a 2nd round TKO loss. Nickal has gone some way to repairing the damage to his reputation by winning his latest fight over Rodolfo Vieira in impressive fashion on the feet, but though his wrestling pedigree continues to be an impressive calling card, his all-round MMA game still feels very much like a work-in-progress.

Daukaus had a rough time of it in his first UFC campaign back in 2020, picking up just two wins in seven fights, leading to his release in 2022 after back-to-back losses via strikes. Daukaus regrouped on the regional scene though, going on a run as Cage Fury’s middleweight champ, before making a strong return to the UFC last year with with two sub-one-minute finishes over established veterans in Michel Pereira and Gerald Meerschaert. Daukaus is primarily a dangerous opportunistic grappler and has 12 submission wins from 17 career victories to prove it, including eight via D’arce choke, which earned him the nickname ‘The D’arce Knight’. That being said he’s not as assured when forced to fight off his back. Meanwhile Daukaus is a fairly capable striker, but does lack in terms of speed and stopping power, and isn’t the most durable. Nevertheless, dropping Pereira with a left hook last summer was a confidence building moment.

Daukaus doesn’t have Nickal’s world-class wrestling or natural athleticism, but he benefits from being the more experienced fighter with a more cohesive skill-set. If Nickal is wary of Daukaus’ submission threat and chooses to remain standing then there’s no guarantee he wins on the feet, but if he does commit to his wrestling I think he can gain the upper-hand on the mat and grind out a decision win.

Bo Nickal to win by decision

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Diego Lopes vs. Steve Garcia Prediction

Diego Lopes comes off an unsuccessful featherweight title challenge to fight Steve Garcia, who is on a seven-fight winning streak.

When you consider that Lopes actually lost on the Contender Series in 2021 and had to wait for a short-notice call-up two years later to finally make it to the UFC, it’s remarkable what he’s been able to do in the three years since. That includes Lopes having twice fought Alexander Volkanovski for the 145lb title, beaten the likes of Brian Ortega, Jean Silva and Sodiq Yussuf, while he’s also fought on the one-of-a-kind Noche UFC event at The Sphere, and now serves as the opener for the historic UFC: White House show. Lopes is a spirited, ruggedly tough fighter who is always very well-conditioned, which enables him to continually bring the fight to his opponent from start to finish. Lopes has good power on the feet and doesn’t flinch at eating a few shots to land his own, while he also has good wrestling and on the mat remains very active and can chain together submission attempt fluidly. More-often that not he has what it takes to rack up wins, and has produced 23 finishes from 27 career victories. However, his fights with Volkanovski did highlight some flaws as there’s a lack of technical depth to his striking and decision-making at the highest level.

The 34-year-old Garcia didn’t have the best start in the UFC, losing two of his first three fights, but since then he’s gradually built up a head of steam thanks to a lengthy winning streak. Gracia is a big lightweight and will hold a 3″ height and 2.5″ reach advantage over Lopes on Sunday night. ‘The Mean Machine’ is a striker with a high-volume approach who likes to fight at an aggressive pace with a hard-hitting, yet accurate mix of punches, kicks, knees and elbows, and he has punishing ground-and-pound too. A lot of opponents haven’t been able to live with what that kind of pressure, with 15 of his 19 wins coming via strikes. That being said, despite his current form he has five losses on his record, and he’s been outwrestled at times.

Garcia is the craftier, more versatile fighter on the feet here, but Lopes is uncommonly durable and can match his high-pace, while his stronger ground game gives him an avenue to victory that I think he’ll eventually take to find a 3rd round submission finish.

Diego Lopes to win by submission in Rd3

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MMA Writer

Ross Cole

Ross Cole is one of the most prolific mixed martial arts writers in the world.

Having written more than 22,000 MMA news stories for MMA Insight, which he founded in 2009 as a way to channel his passion for the sport of mixed martial arts.

Few people know the UFC and the sport of MMA like Ross, and he has built a solid reputation for being one of the best MMA tipsters in the world.

You can read more of Ross's work at MMAInsight.com.