UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivak Predictions

UFC On ESPN 61 takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, United States and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!

UFC On ESPN 61 Predictions

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Marcin Tybura vs. Sergey Spivak Prediction

In the main event Marcin Tybura comes in off a submission victory over Tai Tuivasa in March for a rematch with Sergey Spivak, who was TKO’d by Ciryl Gane last time out, ending a three-fight winning streak.

Tybura won the first encounter between these two back in early 2020 by unanimous decision. The 38-year-old Tybura has been admirably consistent in the years since, going 7-2, though his wins were mostly against lower to mid-tier heavyweights, while he came up short against Tom Aspinall and Alexander Volkov. And that makes sense as Tybura has always seemed to fit into that category as a fighter who doesn’t really stand out in any particular regard, lacks big stopping power and isn’t all that agile, but nonetheless is a solid all-rounder who sticks to the fundamentals, has dependable cardio, decent durability and a methodical rather than reckless approach. And at heavyweight that enough to make him a solid gatekeeper.

Like Tybura, Spivak has also had a respectable run of form since they last fought, going 6-2, and he also fits into that same bracket as his opponent in that he’ll generally get the better of most heavyweight under than those at the upper-end of the division, with his losses coming to Aspinall and Ciryl Gane. One thing in Spivak’s favor though is that he’s still only 29-years-old, which is relatively young by heavyweight division standards, and he has shown signs of improvement and grown in confidence from his first encounter with Tybura, which was just his 2nd fight in the UFC. Spivak’s striking has improved but is still a bit rough-and-ready and he’s heavy-footed. He does have fairly sturdy wrestling and grappling though and is more of a finisher than Tybura with his ground-and-pound and submissions.

It’s tempting to go with Spivak as the younger fighter who is still improving, but I still think Tybura is the more comfortable of the two on the feet and matches up well enough in other areas like the clinch and wrestling to stop Spivak from getting anything too significant going on the mat. So I’ll take the veteran Tybura to edge out another relatively uneventful decision win here.

Prediction: Marcin Tybura to win by decision.

Damon Jackson vs. Chepe Mariscal Prediction

Damon Jackson suffered two losses in 2023, but he got back on track in April with a split-decision win over Alexander Hernandez and now fights ‘Chepe’ Mariscal, who is on a three-fight winning streak in the UFC so far.

Jackson turned 36-year-old this week and continues to be a fighter whose grit and determination pushes him beyond his physical limitations as he’s not the most athletic, hard-hitting or durable fighter, yet still finds a way to win more fights than he loses. He will have a 4″ height and 2″ reach advantage here and looks to apply continual pressure on the feet with both striking and the threat of takedowns. He eats shots too willingly though, which is a concern given that he’s been knocked out four times in his career. He also has weak takedown defense, although that’s partly down to the fact that going to the mat opens up opportunities to use his opportunistic BJJ game where he’s at his most dangerous, having racked up 15 submission finishes from 23 career victories.

The 31-year-old Mariscal has done well in the UFC so far and was well prepared given that he’s fought a good level of opposition on the regional scene over the years, albeit resulting in losses to the likes of Gregor Gillespie, Bryce Mitchell and Joanderson Brito along the way. Mariscal is an aggressive brawler who throws in volume and has more power than Jackson, while he’s also a capable wrestler who presents a threat with ground-and-pound. He’s never been submitted in his career, but while he has a hard-headed approach he has been stopped a few times by strikes.

These are two action fighters so it should be entertaining and perhaps Jackson will have a chance to snatch on a submission finish, but I’ll take Mariscal’s heavier handed striking to be the difference-maker, making the most of his opponent’s defensive lapses to land a KO blow in the 2nd round.

Prediction: Chepe Mariscal to win by KO in Rd2.

Danny Barlow vs. Nikolav Veretennikov Prediction

Contender Series recruit Danny Barlow got his UFC career off to a good start with a TKO victory in his debut back in February and now faces Nikolav Veretennikov, who comes in on short notice to make his debut as a replacement for Uros Medic.

The 29-year-old Barlow is currently undefeated at 8-0 and is a big, athletic welterweight who stands 6ft 2″ tall with a large 79″ reach, 5″ more than Veretennikov. He strikes well from range and is fast, has explosive power in his hands and good movement too, as well as showing a willingness to launch into more dynamic strikes at times to keep his opponent guessing.

The 34-year-old Veretennikov has considerable experience on the regional scene, being a former Fury FC champion whose also fought several times for LFC. He also did have an appearance on the Contender Series in 2021, but lost to Michael Morales on the scorecards, which on reflection isn’t too bad given Morales is now 4-0 in the UFC. Veretennikov isn’t as fast and athletic as Barlow, but he is a respectable striker who will apply pressure and has finished 9 of his 12 career wins via strikes, while he’s also a decent wrestler too.

Veretennikov hasn’t had much time to prepare for this debut opportunity and with Barlow being the faster, rangier and more explosive striker I think this could be an opportunity to add another first round TKO finish to his resume.

Prediction: Danny Barlow to win by TKO in Rd1.

Yana Santos vs. Chelsea Chandler Prediction

Yana Kunitskaya, nowadays known as Yana Santos is coming off a three-fight losing streak as she now prepares to fight Chelsea Chandler, who has won two of her three UFC fights so far.

It’s been three-and-a-half years since the 34-year-old Santos last picked up a win, but she hasn’t been particularly active during that time. In fact she was out for over 18 months back in 2021 due to having a child with her husband, fellow UFC fighter Thiago Santos, while she’s now returning after another year on the sidelines following back-to-back losses in 2023. Santos is an experienced fighter overall though, having fought a good level of competition at both 135lbs and 145lbs during her 5-6 UFC run. She has a taekwondo style of striking at range and also likes to work from the clinch at closer quarters. She can also work for the occasional takedown and land ground-and-pound on top, but her own takedown defense isn’t the best.

The 30-year-old Chandler has significantly less experience than Santos, with just eight fights in total so far. Chandler is lacking technically in the striking department, but she tries to make up for that with aggression, albeit at the expense of her defence. As with Santos she likes to get into the clinch and she’ll want to make use of her wrestling and solid grappling ability, though she only has one submission win to show for it so far.

I can see there being not a whole lot to choose between these two here, especially if they indulge in a lot of clinch work, but I’ll take Santos’ experience and more proven ability on the feet to help her edge out a win on the scorecards.

Prediction: Yana Santos to win by decision.

Chris Gutierrez vs. Quang Le Prediction

Chris Guterrez was on an eight-fight unbeaten run in the UFC now so long ago, but has since lost two of his last three fights. Now he faces a late replacement opponent in the undefeated Quang Le, who steps in to make his debut on a week’s notice in place of Javid Basharat.

The 33-year-old Gutierrez has a high-volume striking style, works well from range with good accuracy and has particularly potent low kicks. He’s also quite sound defensively and has good durability. He’s not too much of a wrestler, but at the same time he’s not uncomfortable if the fight does go to the mat.

Despite being 32-years-old Le only started competing professionally in 2021, but he was competing on the amateur scene before that. He’s done his best to make up for lost time by already racking up an 8-0 record almost exclusively in the LFA promotion and has had a strong 2024 so far, courtesy of two 1st round finishes via strikes. He likes to press forward and does have solid power, but those recent results are a little deceiving given that he’s actually been more likely to find a finish via submission than on the feet over his career as as whole.

It’s always a big ask to make your UFC debut on a week’s notice, and especially against a very solid, established fighter like Gutierrez. So I think it’s very unlikely Le continues his run of quick finishes here, and instead I think Gutierrez will lead the striking action and only gain a firmer hold on it as the rounds progress, leading him to a convincing decision victory.

Prediction: Chris Gutierrez to win by decision.

Toshiomi Kazama vs. Charalampos Grigoriou Prediction

Due to a lot of late cancellations this fight gets bumped up to a main card spot despite both fighters having yet to register a win in the UFC. Toshiomi Kazama arrived via the ‘Road To UFC’ competition, but was KO’d by Rinya Nakamura in the final and has since suffered a 1st round loss to Garrett Armfield. Now he fights Charalampos Grigoriou, who emerged via the Contender Series last year but lost his debut by unanimous decision.

So things haven’t been looking good for the 27-year-old Kazama, whose chin has come under question after those two quick losses in the UFC, while it’s also worth noting that prior to his Road To UFC run he’d also been KO’d by a flying knee on the regional circuit too. Kazama’s style doesn’t help his cause as he’s aggressive on the feet, which leads him into harms way, though he is capable offensively. Kazama has a judo background and when he gets the fight to the mat he’s proven to be a capable wrestler and grappler with a good selection of submissions at his disposal.

The 32-year-old Grigoriou is a combative striker who loads up on power punches, has damaging leg kicks and has stopped six of his eight wins inside the distance via strikes. Grigoriou can also wrestle too and has never been submitted, but on the downside his early exertions tend to take a toll on his cardio later in the fight.

Kazama would clearly be wise not to spend too much time on the feet here if he can avoid it given his past results, but I’m not convinced that will happen and so I’ll take Grigoriou to find a home for his strikes early in the fight and earn a 1st round TKO win.

Prediction: Charalampos Grigoriou to win by TKO in Rd1.

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