UFC Fight Night 165 Predictions
Chan Sung Jung vs. Frankie Edgar
Edgar’s always up for a challenge, as he’s shown here by his willingness to take a fight with as dangerous a fighter as ‘The Korean Zombie’ on just a few weeks notice, although to be fair he has trained to fight him last year before having to pull out injured, so he has a good idea of who he’s up against here.
TKZ will certainly wield the greater power in this fight and also has a 4” reach advantage, but nonetheless he does have defensive weaknesses, which Edgar will look to exploit by using his speed and footwork to dart in and out of range with point-scoring strikes. Edgar has been hurt in the past with big strikes though and the 38-year-old suffered a KO loss to Brian Ortega last year, so he’ll have to be careful.
Edgar has the superior wrestling skills and transitions well between that and striking, so that could well be a strategy for him, but he’ll have to beware of ‘The Korean Zombie’s’ good scrambling and tricky submission skills on the mat.
Cardio is always a plus point for Edgar, but TKZ always keeps a good pace and can go five rounds so I don’t see that as a big factor on this occasion.
I’m torn on this one. Edgar is still a very good fighter, even if he is getting up in years, and there’s definitely a route to a decision victory for him here with a mixture of boxing and wrestling, but I don’t think he’ll be able to scare off The Korean Zombie, who is the more potent striker and can handle himself on the mat, which will help him on his way to a third round TKO victory in front of his home fans.
Prediction: Chan Sung Jung to win by TKO in Rd3 – Bet Now
Volkan Oezdemir vs. Aleksandar Rakic
This should be a fun one with both Oezdemir and Rakic being aggressive strikers who will be looking to round out the year with a big win.
Rakic hasn’t tasted defeat since his pro debut eight years ago, and he’ll come into this fight with a 3” height and reach advantage, but he’ll need to proceed with some degree of caution because he can have defensive lapses at times and Oezdemir certainly has the ability and power to hurt him.
Rakic has plenty of firepower of his own though and has dangerous kicks as well as punches, but it’s also worth noting he can mix in takedowns along with ground and pound too, which could be a factor here, with Oezdemir’s takedown defense being questionable.
Oezdemir is the more experienced fighter here and has been going up against a higher level of opposition, while he’s also see matured in the UFC and as a result fights at a more measured, sustainable pace, but I feel there’s a little more spark to Rakic’s game overall and in a competitive battle he’ll come away with a decision victory.
Prediction: Alexander Rakic to win by decision – Bet Now
Doo Ho Choi vs. Charles Jourdain
A two fight losing streak followed by manditory military service that’s kept him out of action for the past two years has taken some of the wind out of ‘The Korean Superboy’s’ sails, but it’s good to see him back in action at last and at 28-years-old he still has a lot to offer.
Ho Choi is a ferocious offensive striker with very good speed and power to go along with it, though as is often the case with fighters boasting an impressive finishing rate on the feet, he is defensively vulnerable and eats big shots at times.
Jourdain is offensively minded himself, though he’s by no means as fast and furious as Choi and I don’t believe he’s going to have the heavy hands necessary to stop his opponent in his tracks, so with the home crowd behind him I think ‘The Korean Superboy’ will cast aside any doubt about ring-rust with a first round knockout victory.
Prediction: Doo Ho Choi to win by KO in Rd1 – Bet Now
Da Un Jung vs. Mike Rodriguez
Two proven finishers on display here, but they go about getting the job done differently.
Rodriguez has some notable physical advantages, having 4” in arm and leg reach over Jung, despite them both being the same height, and he comes out fast off the blocks looking to put his opponents out early. It’s worked for him many times in the past, with a string of first round stoppages to his name, but in the UFC he’s found the going tougher and has ran low on gas in the later rounds.
Jung on the other hand has a more patient approach and tends to finish his fights in the later round, which bodes well for him here if he can survive the early storm from the dyamic and dangerous Rodriguez.
Jung also has the better ground skills of the two and he might do well to use that to frustrate Rodriguez and potential pull off a submission, but in the end I think it’s a fight that will be won and lost on the feet and I’ll take Jung to do that against a fatigued Rodriguez in the third round by TKO.
Prediction: Da Un Jung to win by TKO in Rd3 – Bet Now
Jun Yong Park vs. Marc-Andre Barriault
Neither fighter here has made much of an impact so far in the UFC, largely due to their inability to cope with wrestlers taking them down, but that won’t be an issue here.
Barriault is a solid rather than spectacular fighter whose style is built on toughness and packing a punch, while Park seems a bit crisper with his striking, but doesn’t have as much stopping power.
This one could come down to a close decision verdict and I’ll take Barriult to edge it due to landing the bigger punches and having the better work in the clinch.
Prediction: Marc-Andre Barriault to win by decision – Bet Now
Kyung Ho Kang vs. Pingyuan Liu
Another fighter whose MMA career was interrupted by compulsory military service in South Korea a few years ago, Kang has managed to pick up where he left off since returning in 2018 and currently is on a two fight winning streak.
Liu on the other hand is coming off the first KO loss of his career, so that will surely be playing on his mind here, though it’s a testament to his character that he managed to rebound from an 0-4 start to his MMA career in order to compile his current 13-6 record.
Kang has a 3” height and reach advantage here and his striking is developing nice, but Liu is the heavier hitter of the two. However, Kang also has good takedowns and a solid submission game, which I think could be his route to victory here as he forces a tapout in the final round.
Prediction: Kyung Ho Kang to win by submission in Rd3 – Bet Now
UFC Fight Night 165 Prelims
(Predicted winners in bold)
Ciryl Gane vs. Tanner Boser
Suman Mokhtarian vs. Seung Woo Choi
Omar Morales vs. Dong Hyun Ma
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Matt Schnell
Said Nurmagomedov vs. Raoni Barcelos
Amanda Lemos vs. Miranda Granger
Heili Alateng vs. Ryan Benoit