We have expert betting tips for the NBL Championship Game 1 between the Sydney Kings and New Zealand Breakers on Friday night.
The best-of-five series could have many twists and turns, but getting off to a winning start in the opening game is important.
Sydney is the $1.47 favourite, but most of the money has come for the Breakers.
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NBL Championship Series Game 1 Tips
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Sydney Kings vs New Zealand Breakers Game 1 Preview
The Kings are deserved favourites in the opening game by virtue of finishing the regular season at the top of the NBL ladder.
They had 19 wins compared to New Zealand’s 18, but the Kiwi team arguably finished the year stronger with a semifinal win over the Tasmania JackJumpers.
The Breakers won 92-77 at Spark Arena to qualify for the final and they are awfully tough to beat at home. However, Friday’s game is played in Sydney and that hasn’t been a happy hunting ground for the visitors.
New Zealand has been handed many losses at Qudos Bank Arena, so it will need to turn that around to stay competitive in Game 1.
The Kings got into the final with a 79-64 win over the Cairns Taipans. They were equally as impressive and that’s why they are the $1.47 favourites to take a 1-0 lead. However, bookmakers have the points spread line at 4.5, so a close game is expected.
The key for the Kings is superstar Xavier Cooks, who can be dominant in the paint. He had another huge season, and although he was injured for part of it, he’s healthy now and ready to go.
If the Breakers can guard Cooks well in the paint with Dererk Pardon, they have a chance to snatch the road win and head to Auckland with the series lead.
NBL Championship Game 1 Betting Tips
There is trepidation in betting markets with the Kings. They opened at $1.47 and that price drifted to $1.52, but they have since firmed back into their original quote.
Punters don’t know what to do, but we don’t see much value in betting on the Kings at that quote. It’s too short for value, and we also don’t think the Breakers will win at $2.56. That leaves us taking the Breakers with the points instead, as a close game is expected.
If you’re not willing to back either team at the head-to-head, it’s always wise to back the underdog with the points start. It could come down to the final possession, which would make for an exciting contest.
There is also value with the Kings 1-10. If the Kings win, we don’t think they will win by more than 10 points, so the $2.55 available with bookmakers is generous in comparison to their match betting line.
For something a little spicy, take New Zealand to lead at halftime. The $2.27 available is a great price for a team that typically starts well, so they could come out of the gates following the 12-day break better than the Kings.
Betting tip: New Zealand Breakers +4.5 @ $1.90
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