The NRL final between the Penrith Panthers and South Sydney Rabbitohs is the highlight of the betting week on Sunday.
After an incredible 29 weeks of NRL action, it comes down to two teams. Penrith makes its second consecutive Grand Final appearance, and the Rabbitohs defied the odds to make their first final since 2014.
Bookmakers have a plethora of betting markets available, so we have identified the best value bets for punters to lock in for the final.
NRL Grand Final Tips
Penrith Panthers vs South Sydney Rabbitohs @ Suncorp Stadium
The Penrith Panthers scored an almighty upset when downing the Melbourne Storm 10-6 to avenge their loss from the 2020 Grand Final.
They were clinical in the win, and although there weren’t many points scored, the Panthers defence will make the South Sydney Rabbitohs very uncomfortable heading into Sunday’s game.
It looked like the Storm would score on multiple occasions, but the Panthers defence continues to muster. If they play with the same effort on Sunday, the Rabbitohs’ high calibre attack could struggle to score points.
South Sydney defeated the Sea Eagles 36-16 in a one-sided game. Manly was never in the hunt, and despite being underdogs for the Grand Final, it would be foolish to write off the Rabbitohs chances of success.
Coach Wayne Bennett continues to come up with ideas to beat teams. He has the Rabbitohs playing at their very best, which makes the $2.30 head-to-head odds look attractive. All the Rabbitohs need to do is produce their usual stellar backline moves and ensure the forwards make enough metres up the middle.
That’s easier said than done against the Panthers, who are the best defensive team in the NRL. They have scored only 18 points from the last two finals games, but it hasn’t mattered for much.
We give plenty of credit to the Panthers defence, but they will need to score more than 10 points on Sunday. We can’t see the Rabbitohs scoring less than double digits, so the likes of Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai will need to be on fire.
Because we think it will be a close game, we’re taking the value with the Rabbitohs. $2.30 for a team with this level of ability is good shopping, and although fate is seemingly with the Panthers, there are no weak spots in the Rabbitohs outfit.
Even with Latrell Mitchell suspended, Blake Taaffe has been excellent at the fullback role. It’s just his eighth NFL game, but he has ability and could produce the goods for a team that includes Cody Walker, Alex Johnson, Adam Reynolds, who looked to get over his hamstring complaint.
Bet: South Sydney Rabbitohs @ $2.30 – Bet @ Sportsbet
Clive Churchill Medal Winner – Cameron Murray
Cameron Murray is a player who is hugely respected, but doesn’t get the credit he often deserves.
He is our top pick to win the Clive Churchill Medal, as we believe he will be instrumental in getting the Rabbitohs over the advantage line.
There has been solid betting support for Murray, who is on the third line of betting behind Nathan Cleary and Cody Walker. The Clive Churchill Medal is often given the winning playmaker, but Murray is our value pick at $11.
We would also include Damien Cook and Adam Reynolds. Cook could have a big impact through the middle of the field, and if Reynolds isn’t still carrying an injury, he will have a positive effect for the Rabbitohs in controlling the game.
Bet: Cameron Murray @ $11 – Bet @ Sportsbet
First Try Scorer – Alex Johnson
He has been money for punters all season, so we see no reason to jump off his back in the final.
Alex Johnson is a try-scoring machine for the Rabbitohs, so we’re surprised he’s not the favourite to score the first try against the Panthers.
Brian To’o is the current $8 favourite, but Johnson is far more dynamic and the Rabbitohs’ attack is centered on getting the ball to the wingers.
Look for Johnson to cash in first, or take him at $1.83 to core a try at any time during the game. It looks like a safe bet despite the potential of a low-scoring final.
Bet: Alex Johnson @ $8.50 – Bet @ Sportsbet
🤑 Who should you bet with for the NRL Grand Final?
💰 What is the best bet for the NRL Grand Final?
To find out our best bets for the NRL Grand Final, read our full the NRL Grand Final preview and betting tips!
📺 How can I watch the NRL Grand Final?
For detailed information on how to watch and live stream the NRL Grand Final, read our guide on how to live stream NRL!
🏉 What are the best exotic bets for the NRL Grand Final?
Read our NRL Grand Final preview and bettings tips to find out the best exotic bets like first try scorer and Clive Churchill Medal winner!
After graduating from the University of Auckland (BA – English), Daryl was thrown into the world of sports and horse racing journalism.
Having worked as a racing journalist for two years, he decided to move into the online world of horse racing and sports writing. After years of honing his craft, Daryl became a professional punter in 2009 – with a focus on horse racing, NRL, AFL, NBA, Rugby, NFL, and US college sports. Daryl’s tips have been featured on various websites around the world before joining the GoBet team. When he’s not working, Daryl tries to avoid making bogeys on the golf course.