We have expert betting tips for NRL Finals Round 1 which starts with the Storm vs Sea Eagles on Friday night.
Only eight teams remain after 25 rounds of the regular season. Six teams will remain in the competition following the first week of the finals, which promises to be packed with exciting games.
We preview every game and find the best bets available for NRL Finals Round 1.
NRL Finals Week 1 Tips
7:50pm Melbourne Storm vs Manly Sea Eagles @ Sunshine Coast Stadium
The last few weeks haven’t been stellar for the Melbourne Storm, but they have been preparing for this situation. They scored a 28-16 win over the Sharks last week, which came without many of their top players.
Melbourne scored another minor premiership win, and despite one slip up against the Parramatta Eels in Round 24, they had looked incredible winning 19 straight.
Manly is keen to cause an upset and it has been respected in betting markets. The Sea Eagles are $2.90 to win, which given their ability is a fair price. However, beating Melbourne in the finals is a tough ask.
The line of 7.5 points makes it interesting, but we think with their finals experience, the Storm should come away with a 10-point victory.
Betting tip: Melbourne Storm –7.5 @ $1.90 – Bet @ Sportsbet
Storm by 10
5:40pm Sydney Roosters vs Gold Coast Titans @ Queensland Country Bank Stadium
The Gold Coast Titans put away a disappointing Warriors outfit on Sunday to qualify for the finals on points difference. A much harder task awaits them on Saturday, but the Roosters have been battered and bruised.
It’s a season that could have been for Sydney, and despite still being a premiership contender, it has lost numerous top-level players. It will catch up to them sooner or later, and we think the Titans are good enough to keep this close.
The Roosters are 2-0 against the Titans this season, but the most recent meeting was a 35-34 thriller. The first meeting was decided by only six points, so there’s never much separation.
Bookmakers have the line at 11.5, which is generous. It’s an all-or-nothing game, so we expect the Titans to make something out of it.
Betting tip: Gold Coast Titans +11.5 @ $1.90 – Bet @ Sportsbet
Roosters by 8
7:50pm Penrith Panthers vs South Sydney Rabbitohs @ Queensland Country Bank Stadium
The Panthers and Rabbitohs met only a few weeks ago, and it was the Panthers who came back from 12-0 down to score a comfortable win.
South Sydney has struggled against the likes of Penrith and Melbourne, and losing Latrell Mitchell for the season hasn’t helped their cause.
Penrith has been one of the best teams throughout the year, and it seems destined to return to the Grand Final for the second year running.
We are supremely confident in the Panthers winning at odds of $1.25, but we’re looking for more value. Bookmakers have the spread at 11.5, which is sizable for a top four clash, but we think the Rabbitohs will fall to pieces.
Penrith’s defence is strong and we think the Rabbitohs will struggle to cross the line with regularity.
Betting tip: Penrith Panthers –11.5 @ $1.90 – Bet @ Sportsbet
Panthers by 14
4:05pm Parramatta Eels vs Newcastle Knights @ Browne Park
It looked like the Parramatta Eels had turned their season around with an upset win over Melbourne, but they rested players last week and lost all that momentum.
Despite not having some top players in the team, the 40-6 defeat to Penrith could come at a mental cost. We would have preferred the Eels to try entering the finals with two big wins under their belt. However, they get an easier game against Newcastle.
We haven’t quite figured out the Knights. They can produce the goods, but we don’t see it very often. They need a superb game from Mitchell Pearce and Kayln Ponga to have any chance, but we don’t see the Eels being overly great either.
It should make for a tight contest, so take the Knights with the points.
Betting tip: Newcastle Knights +7.5 @ $1.90 – Bet @ Sportsbet
Eels by 2
🤑 Who should you bet with for NRL Finals Week 1?
💰 What is the best bet for NRL Finals Week 1?
To find out our best bets for NRL Finals Week 1, read our full NRL Finals Week 1 preview and betting tips!
📺 How can I watch NRL Finals Week 1?
For detailed information on how to watch and live stream NRL Finals Week 1, read our guide on how to live stream NRL!
🏉 What is the fixture for NRL Finals Week 1?
Read our NRL Finals Week 1 preview and bettings tips to find out all of the fixtures and locations for the week 1 of the NRL finals!
After graduating from the University of Auckland (BA – English), Daryl was thrown into the world of sports and horse racing journalism.
Having worked as a racing journalist for two years, he decided to move into the online world of horse racing and sports writing. After years of honing his craft, Daryl became a professional punter in 2009 – with a focus on horse racing, NRL, AFL, NBA, Rugby, NFL, and US college sports. Daryl’s tips have been featured on various websites around the world before joining the GoBet team. When he’s not working, Daryl tries to avoid making bogeys on the golf course.