Queensland and New South Wales clash in Game 1 of the 2025 State of Origin series on Wednesday, May 28 at 8:05pm AEST, with the Maroons out to reclaim bragging rights after last year’s Blues triumph.
Despite playing at home, Queensland enters as rare underdogs, setting the stage for a fiery Origin opener full of passion, pride, and high-stakes footy.
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State of Origin Game 1 Tips
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Best Bet
Bookmakers are offering $2.28 for Queensland to win at Suncorp Stadium. Are we dreaming? Regardless of who you support, that’s excellent value for the 2022 and 2023 State of Origin champions, and we’re snapping it up.
Beating the Maroons in front of a packed Suncorp Stadium is about as hard as it gets. They have an excellent record there, and there are no concerns about the team they have picked, which was a concern in 2024.
They have the likes of Xavier Coates, Valentine Holmes, Kalyn Ponga, Harry Grant, Cameron Munster, and Daly Cherry-Evans. That’s a stack of Origin experience, and they also have some new names in the mix, such as Robert Toia and Beau Fermor.
The Blues have star power as well, but the concern is how many of those players are with losing teams. There are a lot of Panthers players picked, and they have a poor record in 2025. Most of the Blues’ backline plays for a team with a losing record, so they haven’t done much winning this season.
That’s a big concern, and our State of Origin Game 1 picks confidently back Queensland to win. They don’t have a big forward pack, but they have an explosive backline, which could tear the Blues to shreds.
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Same Game Multi
It comes as no surprise to see us backing two Queensland players to score. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has been electric for the Maroons, and he often turns the momentum in their favour with a long-range try-scoring play.
He has six tries from his last five Origin games, and getting $2.40 is an excellent price from bookmakers. Coates is also a good value play at $2.20. He has two tries from his last three Origin games, and we expect the high ball to come his way.
Punters get value odds for the Maroons players because they expect a low-scoring game. The line is at just 38.5 points, so we’re backing the over. It could be a much higher-scoring game than expected, especially at Suncorp, where conditions are often favourable.
Our final score prediction is Queensland 24-18, so take the value line and include it in State of Origin same game multi picks.
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Best Value Bet
Tom Dearden comes off the bench for the Maroons, but he could snipe a try late in the second half.
The Queensland and North Queensland half is one of the quicker halves in the game, and his speed often sees him cross for a try.
With the Blues’ defence likely to tire late in the game, he could come off the bench and score a try to seal the win for the Maroons.
