NSW vs. QLD: State of Origin Game 1 2026 Tips & Predictions

State of Origin kicks off with Game 1 on Wednesday, May 27 at 8:05pm at Accor Stadium in Sydney.

We have our best State of Origin Game 1 predictions for the big game, where New South Wales are the $1.55 favourites to take a 1-0 lead in the best-of-three series.

Best Bet

Maroons +4.5 @ $1.90

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Queensland comes off a series win in 2025, and we love the selections they have made this year. They have a stacked team, including experience and youth and we have them making a statement in the opening game of the series.

Beating New South Wales in Sydney isn’t easy, and that’s why the Blues are –4.5 favourites. However, we have concerns about their squad. They have gone for a mobile forward pack, and although that can work at times, Queensland’s forwards could outmuscle them, in what should be a physical affair.

The Maroons have their usual standout players in Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, Harry Grant, and Cameron Munster, but it’s their debut picks that we love. Sam Walker fills in for Tom Deardon, which is a great replacement, and the likes of Max Plath, Briton Nikora, and Jojo Fafita look ready for State of Origin level.

We also love the recall of Kalyn Ponga, who replaces Reece Walsh. Ponga has been in outstanding form for Newcastle since returning from injury, and he provides the Maroons with potent offence and solid defence.

The $2.45 for a Maroons win is good value, but it should be a close contest, and it could be decided in the final five minutes. Therefore, the +4.5 line is a much safer bet.

Same Game Multi

Maroons +4.5, Hamiso-Tabuai-Fidow Anytime Try Scorer, Brian To’o Anytime Try Scorer, Over 42.5 @ $11.50

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Tabuai-Fidow is a proven try scorer at the Origin level, and we can’t leave him out of our State of Origin Game 1 picks. He has three tries from his last five games, including a double in Game 2 last year, which proved vital to their series win. Take the $2.50 odds, which are generous for the Maroons’ speedster.

We also can’t leave out Brian To’o for the Blues. His game elevates to a higher level at Origin, having scored seven tries in his last five games. He doesn’t score all that often for the Panthers, but he’s their main attacking weapon on the wing for the Blues. Include him in State of Origin SGM picks at $2.02.

A low-scoring game has been touted by experts, but there are plenty of points in these teams. They are stacked with attacking players, and our final score has Queensland winning 24-20, so we’re including the over in our picks.

Best Value Bet

Sam Walker Player of the Match @ $14.00

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Sam Walker is made to play State of Origin, and if Queensland wins, he would have made a big impact on the game.

He’s not a player to shy away from the occasion, and his devil may care attitude is exactly what could win him Player of the Match on Wednesday.

He is having a great year for the Roosters, and if he has a couple of try assists, that could be enough for punters to cash in the generous $14 odds.

Editor In Chief

Daryl Curnow

After graduating from the University of Auckland (BA - English), Daryl was thrown into the world of sports and horse racing journalism.

Having worked as a racing journalist for two years, he decided to move into the online world of horse racing and sports writing. After years of honing his craft, Daryl became a professional punter in 2009 - with a focus on horse racing, NRL, AFL, NBA, Rugby, NFL, and US college sports.

Daryl's tips have been featured on various websites around the world before joining the GoBet team. When he's not working, Daryl tries to avoid making bogeys on the golf course.