We have expert betting tips for State of Origin Game 1 between New South Wales and Queensland.
It hasn’t been the typical year for NRL fans, but we’re happy to have Origin and it should be as intense as ever.
New South Wales has had the advantage over the last two years and they have a squad packed with stars this year. However, Queensland is built on toughness and it wasn’t long ago when they rattled off eight consecutive series’ wins.
Game 1 is important as it sets the tone for the best-of-three series and we have the best betting predictions for Wednesday’s big game.
State of Origin Game 1 Tips
Queensland Maroons vs. New South Wales Blues Game 1 Betting Predictions
Both the Maroons and Blues have named strong teams for the opening game in Adelaide on Wednesday.
The Blues outfit looks similar to the one that has lifted back-to-back State of Origin titles. Making the team are the likes of Josh Addo-Carr, Nathan Cleary, James Tedesco and Luke Keary.
There aren’t too many new faces in the Blues’ side and they will help them in what has been a tough season. Having that experience will be key, and it’s unusual to see New South Wales boasting the more stable team.
Queensland has named a solid team, but there are a few inexperienced players in the mix. Xavier Coates, Phillip Sami, AJ Brimson, Brenko Lee, and Lindsay Collins are not familiar names in the Queensland side.
We have seen much stronger Maroons’ teams in past years, but they still have the exciting Cameron Munster, Dane Gagai and a formidable forward pack.
There is no doubting the advantage of the New South Wales back line, which has no weak links. Points could come from Addo-Carr, Tupou, Tedesco, Walker, Wighton and Gutherson. It is a mouthwatering back line and Queensland will be up against it on Wednesday.
Playing at a neutral venue won’t give an advantage to either team. It makes it easier for punters to assess the chances of both sides, and we’re giving the edge to the Blues.
We haven’t seen a NSW team this strong in some years, including their past two series wins. They boast champion players across the board and they could steamroll the Maroons in Game 1.
Bookmakers have New South Wales as $1.37 favourites and the line is set at 7.5. We expect the Blues to get on the board early and establish a 10-point lead at halftime.
That should be enough to see them cover the spread and take a 1-0 advantage in the 2020 State of Origin.
Tip: New South Wales Blues –7.5 ($1.90) @ Sportsbet.com.au – Bet @ Sportsbet
State of Origin Game 1 teams and first try scorer predictions
Below are the confirmed teams for State of Origin Game 1, as well as their prices to score the first try of the game in Adelaide.
- AJ Brimson ($17)
- Xavier Coates ($12)
- Brenko Lee ($26)
- Dane Gagai ($17)
- Phillip Sami ($13)
- Cameron Munster ($26)
- Daly Cherry-Evans ($23)
- Christian Welch ($91)
- Jake Friend ($61)
- Josh Papalii ($34)
- Felise Kaufusi ($34)
- Coen Hess ($34)
- Tino Fa’asuamaleaui ($31)
New South Wales Blues:
- James Tedesco ($10)
- Daniel Tupou ($8.50)
- Clint Gutherson ($18)
- Jack Wighton ($15)
- Josh Addo-Carr ($7.50)
- Luke Keary ($23)
- Nathan Cleary ($21)
- Daniel Saifiti ($46)
- Damien Cook ($23)
- Junior Polo ($46)
- Boyd Cordner ($23)
- Tyson Frizell ($23)
- Jake Trbojevic ($41)
New South Wales has plenty of first try scorer chances and at the top of the list is Daniel Tupou. The high-flyer is a great asset on the wing as he’s able to compete in the air.
Look for Luke Keary or Nathan Clearly to put up an early high bomb in the direction of Tupou. He has the ability to snatch the ball out of the air and cross for the opening four-pointer.
A Blues player that could score at value odds is Jack Wighton. He is big for his position and if he gets close to the line, they rarely stop him.
He will be looking to make an early impression on the game and the 2020 Dally M Medal winner is the value pick at $15.
For Queensland, we’re going with two players who aren’t favoured to score first. The first is Jake Friend ($61), who will be keen to impress the selectors in his State of Origin debut.
Friend is a master at sneaking out of dummy-half and if the Blues’ defense comes out of the line, look for Friend to try his hand at barge-over try. The value odds are there and it’s worth the risk.
The second Maroons player worth backing is Daly Cherry-Evans. Typically, he is a role-player, but he has a good right-foot step and that’s dangerous close to the line.
Cherry-Evans has had plenty of time to rest in preparation of Origin and he should be fit and ready to produce a big effort. He can spur on this Maroons outfit, so scoring first could set the tone.