We have expert betting tips for State of Origin 2 at Suncorp Stadium on Sunday.
The Queensland Maroons have their backs against the wall after losing Game 1 50-6, but that’s exactly what they love.
New South Wales couldn’t have been more impressive and they haven’t had any significant team changes. The same can’t be said for the Maroons, but State of Origin rarely goes as planned and an upset could be brewing.
We look at the best value for punters ahead of the all-important Game 2.
State of Origin Game 2 Tips
Queensland Maroons vs. New South Wales Blues Game 2 Betting Predictions
We, like most Queenslanders, were bitterly disappointed with what the Maroons showed in the opening game. There was a lack of passion and it was unlike the Maroons to not turn up.
They haven’t been treated well in the injury department, especially with the likes of Jai Arrow battling illness. They are without Harry Grant, Xavier Coates and Joe Ofaengaue, among others.
However, the Queenslanders love entering an Origin game as the underdogs. It’s when they play their best rugby league, so punters should be expecting another whitewash.
There are some positives for the Maroons, including the debut of New Zealand Warrior Reece Walsh. He might be only a teenager, but he’s explosive and could give his team a much-needed spark at the fullback position.
It’s not going to be easy going up against James Tedesco at the back, but expect Walsh to insert himself in the line and to help Cameron Munster and Daly Cherry-Evans create scoring opportunities.
They are also bolstered with the addition of Josh Papalii, who should give the Blues defence fits. The ball-running prop is an offloading machine and he’ll be dangerous around the line.
It would also help if Christian Welch could stay on the field. He has a knack of being injured and he’s one of the best props in the game, so he needs to stay healthy.
For the Blues, there are no such concerns about their team. It’s stacked top to bottom and it’s tough to find a weak link. The halves pairing of Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai combined well in Game 1 and the outside backs were outstanding.
With the exception of Josh Addo-Carr, who had a quiet game, the Blues’ backline was electric. It was led by Tom Trbojevic, who had one of the better Origin games in recent memory. “Turbo” was firing on all cylinders and we don’t expect anything less this time around.
An area of concern is in the forwards. They have a good lineup, but we give the slight edge to the Queenslanders, who have more ball-playing talent.
Bookmakers have New South Wales at $1.25 and Queensland at $4. We’re not brave enough to take the Maroons in the head-to-head market, but we can’t turn down the +14.5 start.
Queensland has an excellent record at Suncorp Stadium and although the margin was 44 points in Game 1, we would be shocked if it was another one-sided game.
We are confident the Maroons can keep it close and be in with a chance to tie the series.
Bet: Queensland Maroons +14.5 @ $1.90 – Bet @ Sportsbet
State of Origin Game 2 First Try Scorer Predictions
It’s imperative the Queenslanders strike early and what better way to start your Origin career than with a try. Reece Walsh is our man to cross the line for the first try and he has garnered support in betting markets.
Walsh is $17 to score first on Sunday and those odds are worth entertaining. Debutantes have a good record at scoring tries on the big stage and he’s an aggressive player, similar to Kayln Ponga, so he’ll get his chance.
We also like Dane Gagai to score first at $15. He’s an Origin superstar and he was disappointed with his Game 1 effort, so punters should expect a focused performance.
For the Blues, we can’t look past Tom Trbojevic. He is paying $9.50 to score first and $1.72 to score at any time. We would include those odds in multi bets, as he should be scoring at some stage throughout the night.
James Tedesco is a $2 chance to score, which is generous odds. The Sydney Roosters fullback could show his hand late in the game when the defence is getting tired, so look for Tedesco to weave his magic.
Include Kurt Capewell to score at $5.50. He has the ability to show up and Sportsbet is offering generous odds, so he’s well worth including in selections.
Bet: Reece Walsh @ $17 – Bet @ Sportsbet
State of Origin Game 1 Player of the Match Pick
We think Reece Walsh will have a big debut, but it will be on the back of what Josh Papalii does up front. Forwards don’t often get the nod, but Queensland’s only chance is if the forwards provide a good platform.
Papalii is the man for the job and he’s paying $36 to win Player of the Match. Those odds shouldn’t be overlooked and he could provide the platform for the Queensland backline to run rampant.
Bet: Josh Papalii @ $36 – Bet @ Sportsbet
After graduating from the University of Auckland (BA – English), Daryl was thrown into the world of sports and horse racing journalism.
Having worked as a racing journalist for two years, he decided to move into the online world of horse racing and sports writing. After years of honing his craft, Daryl became a professional punter in 2009 – with a focus on horse racing, NRL, AFL, NBA, Rugby, NFL, and US college sports. Daryl’s tips have been featured on various websites around the world before joining the GoBet team. When he’s not working, Daryl tries to avoid making bogeys on the golf course.