NSW vs. QLD: State of Origin Game 3 Tips & Predictions

State of Origin concludes with Game 3 on Wednesday, July 8 at 8:05pm at Suncorp Stadium.

We have our best State of Origin Game 3 predictions for the big game, where Queensland are favourites to win the series 2-1 after a barnstorming win in Melbourne last month.

Best Bet

Maroons –5.5 @ $1.90

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There is a sense that the Maroons should have already won the series after blowing a big lead in Game 1, but they will be focused on finishing the job at Suncorp Stadium.

They dominated the Blues in Game 2 in Melbourne. The 44-24 scoreline is indicative of how dominant Queensland has been throughout the series, and although they were run down in Game 1 when losing 22-20, that was mostly due to Kalyn Ponga getting a red card.

We can’t make much sense of Laurie Daley’s changes to the team. We had a feeling he would drop Brian To’o, which is a big mistake, and forcing Jack Bostock to make his Origin debut in a Game 3 decider is a brave choice at best, but it reeks of desperation.

It’s business as usual for Queensland, who are a well-oiled machine, and their largely unchanged team should be far too good for New South Wales. Playing at Suncorp Stadium only helps their chances, and we think NSW is out of ideas.

Take the –5.5 line before it moves to –6.5 on game day.

Same Game Multi

Maroons –5.5, Selwyn Cobbo Anytime Try Scorer, Jojo Fafita Anytime Try Scorer, Over 44.5 @ $8.00

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Selwyn Cobbo is having a State of Origin series to remember after scoring three tries in Game 2. We thought he should have won Player of the Match, despite picking Sam Walker to win at $10. He was dominant on the wing, and he not only scores tries, but he also brings the ball back strongly to make metres. Take the $1.98 for Cobbo to score.

We were also impressed by Jojo Fafita, who scored his first Origin try in Melbourne. He’s a powerful finisher, and it appears as though Queensland has unearthed another backline star who could play Origin for years. Our State of Origin SGM picks have Fafita scoring at $2.30.

Over 44.5 is an excellent bet. They combined for 42 points in the opener before scoring 68 points in Game 2, and there are plenty of points in both teams, especially Queensland.

Best Value Bet

Kalyn Ponga Player of the Match @ $8.50

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Despite landing $10 odds for picking Walker to win in Game 2, we’re jumping ship and backing Ponga to win Player of the Match in Game 3.

It has been an odd series for Ponga, who was playing a blinder in Game 1 before being sent off. He had a solid Game 2, and we think he’ll be instrumental in a few Queensland tries and defensive efforts on Wednesday.

His experience should pay off, and although it’s an odd betting angle, the dimensions on Suncorp Stadium suit his playing style. He’ll eat up the metres at fullback, and he’ll insert himself into the attack at pivotal times.

Editor In Chief

Daryl Curnow

After graduating from the University of Auckland (BA - English), Daryl was thrown into the world of sports and horse racing journalism.

Having worked as a racing journalist for two years, he decided to move into the online world of horse racing and sports writing. After years of honing his craft, Daryl became a professional punter in 2009 - with a focus on horse racing, NRL, AFL, NBA, Rugby, NFL, and US college sports.

Daryl's tips have been featured on various websites around the world before joining the GoBet team. When he's not working, Daryl tries to avoid making bogeys on the golf course.