We have expert betting tips for State of Origin Game 3 between the New South Wales Blues and Queensland Maroons.
It’s all to play for in Queensland following the Blues Game 2 victory. It was a one-sided affair, so the Queenslanders need to fight back as underdogs, especially with Cameron Munster ruled out.
They love playing as the underdog, so punters could get value in the State of Origin Game 3 decider on Wednesday.
State of Origin Game 3 Tips
Queensland Maroons vs. New South Wales Blues Game 3 Betting Predictions
We fancied the Queensland Maroons to win Game 1 and they didn’t let us down. However, we made the mistake of doubling down for Game 2 despite them missing a few key players.
Despite the Maroons missing a key player in Munster, we’re sticking with them at the value odds. Bookmakers had them at $2.25 before Munster was ruled out. They’re now paying $3.25, so we’re looking at the Maroons with the points.
Despite playing at home, the Maroons get +8.5, which is an excellent opportunity for punters to cash in. It’s not going to be an easy cover but the Maroons have good depth and they love being under the pump.
There are two things we know about the Maroons; they love playing at home and they love being the underdog. Combine these two factors and the $3.25 is a generous price, despite being thumped in Perth.
Playing at home has a much better feel for Queensland and we can’t find any weak links in the squad. Daly Cherry-Evans has been playing outstandingly in the halves and this gives replacement five-eighth Tom Dearden a chance to shine. The forward pack has been bolstered and it could give the Blues plenty of troubles.
We’re not discounting the chances of New South Wales, which was slick in Game 2. The Blues were down early but put the Maroons to the sword either side of half time and they never looked back.
If Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai have big performances again, along with former Panther Matt Burton, the Blues could justify their $1.65 price. However, we think there is much better value with the home side in a position they have thrived in over the last 20 years.
Bet: Queensland Maroons +8.5 @ $1.90 Bet @ Neds
State of Origin Game 3 teams and first try scorer predictions
- Kayln Ponga
- Selwyn Cobbo
- Valentine Holmes
- Dane Gagai
- Murray Taulagi
- Tom Dreaden
- Daly Cherry-Evans
- Lindsay Collins
- Ben Hunt
- Josh Papalii
- Kurt Capewell
- Jeremiah Nanai
- Tino Fa’asuamaleaui
- Harry Grant
- Jai Arrow
- Patrick Carrigan
- Tom Gilbert
New South Wales Blues:
- James Tedesco
- Brian To’o
- Matt Burton
- Stephen Crichton
- Daniel Tupou
- Jarome Luai
- Nathan Cleary
- Jordan McLean
- Apisai Koroisau
- Jake Trbojevic
- Cameron Murray
- Liam Martin
- Isaah Yeo
- Damien Cook
- Angus Crichton
- Junior Paulo
- Siosifa Talakai
We think the Maroons get off to a fast start on Wednesday and we’re looking at Valentine Holmes to get them started.
Holmes has been in excellent form for the Maroons this season and his power running has caused the Blues plenty of troubles. He is paying $15 to score the first try, so there is plenty of market confidence with the North Queenslander.
We also like Jai Arrow at $23. The forward could crash over close to the line and he’s a mobile player, so he could put on some fancy footwork and score at big odds.
Bet: Valentine Holmes @ $15 Bet @ Neds
After graduating from the University of Auckland (BA – English), Daryl was thrown into the world of sports and horse racing journalism.
Having worked as a racing journalist for two years, he decided to move into the online world of horse racing and sports writing. After years of honing his craft, Daryl became a professional punter in 2009 – with a focus on horse racing, NRL, AFL, NBA, Rugby, NFL, and US college sports. Daryl’s tips have been featured on various websites around the world before joining the GoBet team. When he’s not working, Daryl tries to avoid making bogeys on the golf course.