State of Origin Game 3 – Tips, Predictions & Odds

We have expert betting tips for State of Origin 3 between Queensland and New South Wales at Gold Coast on Wednesday

Game 3 is a dead-rubber after New South Wales destroyed Queensland in the first two games. However, pride is on the line as the Maroons look to salvage a victory.

Bookmakers have the Blues as firm favourites and rightfully so. We look at the best bets for State of Origin 3.


All odds are with Sportsbet – our No. 1 rated bookmaker. You can join Sportsbet by clicking HERE.


State of Origin Game 3 Tips

Queensland Maroons vs. New South Wales Blues Game 3 Betting Predictions

Queensland couldn’t have been more disappointing in the first two games. Despite having numerous players missing due to injury, more was expected and this usually proud team folded under the pressure.

Take nothing away from New South Wales, which boasts one of their best rosters in history. However, the Maroons have been particularly poor and they have had the benefit of playing every game at home.

With Covid impacting the location of Wednesday’s game, Queensland now has the advantage of playing all three State of Origin games at home, but will it matter for much? Despite playing in Townsville and at Suncorp, they have failed to give the home crowd something to cheer about.

There is something to get excited about, however, as Kalyn Ponga returns to the team. He is often a difference maker and this team is starting to look like the one that defeated New South Wales in a stunning upset last season.

However, the Blues have been dynamic and they’ll be keen to complete the sweep. The Panthers halves pairing of Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai have been excellent, but neither player takes to the field on Wednesday. Instead, Mitchell Moses and Jack Wighton have slotted into the ball-playing roles.

It will have a negative effect on this team and that’s where Queensland could get the advantage. Moses is a quality player, but he finds it tough to slot into a team and have an instant impact.

Going up against Cameron Munster and Daly Cherry-Evans is a tough ask, so it be interesting to see which players rise to the occasion.

There is more consistency to the Maroons back line, which has thankfully dropped Cowboys winger Kyle Feldt. He was a borderline selection to begin with and he was terrible in the first two games, so having Coates and Holmes on the wing is a positive.

New South Wales have the advantage in the forwards. However, will it be enough to cover the 11.5-point spread? Queensland will be better in this game and they will be hellbent on keeping the Blues from completing the 3-0 sweep.

Bet: Queensland Maroons +11.5 @ $1.90 Bet @ Sportsbet

State of Origin Game 3 First Try Scorer Picks

Looking to make an impact straight off the bat is Kalyn Ponga, who has such a huge impact for the Newcastle Knights.

Ponga puts himself in the thick of the action and he has a knack of finding the try line. Bookmakers have him at $17 to score first, so he’s respected in markets and that is a good sign.

We also like Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow to have an impact on debut. The North Queensland flyer isn’t as skilled as his teammates, but he has explosive speed and he could burn the wing defence. He will need to outpace the likes of Josh Addo-Carr and Brian To’o, but he’s one of the quickest in the NRL.

For the Blues, we like Tom Trbojevic to score at any time. He is paying $1.80 to score, which is a steal given his recent form. The Manly fullback injects himself into the game and he’ll be hunting a four-pointer.

Bet: Kalyn Ponga @ $17 Bet @ Sportsbet

State of Origin 3 Player of the Match

We can’t look past Kalyn Ponga. Despite playing for a team that is 0-2 down, he brings the excitement and energy needed for the Maroons.

Although the Player of the Match isn’t often awarded to a player on a losing team, Ponga is good enough to win the award regardless.

He is paying $11 to win and those odds are worth snapping up.

Bet: Kalyn Ponga @ $11 Bet @ Sportsbet


All odds are with Sportsbet – our No. 1 rated bookmaker. You can join Sportsbet by clicking HERE.

Daryl Curnow
About the Author: Daryl Curnow

After graduating from the University of Auckland (BA – English), Daryl was thrown into the world of sports and horse racing journalism.
Having worked as a racing journalist for two years, he decided to move into the online world of horse racing and sports writing. After years of honing his craft, Daryl became a professional punter in 2009 – with a focus on horse racing, NRL, AFL, NBA, Rugby, NFL, and US college sports. Daryl’s tips have been featured on various websites around the world before joining the GoBet team. When he’s not working, Daryl tries to avoid making bogeys on the golf course.

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