We have expert betting tips for Super Rugby Aotearoa Final between the Crusaders and Chiefs, which kicks off on Saturday night.
The Crusaders have been the favourites from day dot, but after some suspect form at the end of the season, they will be worried.
The Chiefs are the form team of the competition and they head to Christchurch with an upset in mind.
Super Rugby Aotearoa Final Predictions
Crusaders vs Chiefs Betting Preview
The Crusaders had the benefit of having last week off, which should have them fit and ready to fire on Saturday. Rest was needed for the Crusaders after showing signs of distress over the concluding rounds of the regular season.
They put up a 29-6 win over the Blues in Round 9, but that followed a 26-25 defeat at the hands of the Chiefs. It was a big comeback performance from the Chiefs and it showed the Crusaders are there for the taking.
In Round 7, the Canterbury-based franchise defeated the Hurricanes by only three points, which followed a loss to the Highlanders.
Despite some late-season worries, the Crusaders are always tough to beat at home and in the big games. Bookmakers have taken that into account and installed them as $1.26 favourites, which appears short at first glance.
Playing the final at home is a big plus for the Crusaders, but they’re not the form team. The Chiefs have been playing the best rugby in New Zealand and they showed that when beating the Crusaders by a point.
Punters should overlook the 20-point loss to the Blues last week. The Chiefs rested almost the entire squad, and the replacements did well to keep the game close until the final 15 minutes.
In Round 9 the Chiefs scored a last-second win over the Hurricanes after Damien McKenzie kicked a penalty. It was not the first time McKenzie had won the game for the Chiefs; he also provided the game winner against the Crusaders and the Highlanders.
Confidence is supreme with the Chiefs, but winning in Christchurch has never been easy. That’s the obstacle standing in front of the Chiefs, who will need to ignore the massive crowd expected down south.
We think the Crusaders will win the game, but covering a 9.5-point spread poses a challenge. The Chiefs are good enough to keep the final close and that’s too many points to give up.
Money should come for the Waikato franchise on game day, and in a season filled with highlights, this game could come down to the final 10 minutes.
Take the Chiefs +9.5 for Saturday’s final and look for some McKenzie magic.
In exotic betting markets, we think the 1-12 margins could be worth a play. We think the game will be decided by less than 12 points either way, so backing the Crusaders 1-12 and Chiefs 1-12 is a value play.
The Crusaders pay $2.88 and the Chiefs $5, so the reward is worth the risk.
We also like Brad Weber to score the first try at $21. The Chiefs’ halfback doesn’t often score, but he could sneak around the ruck and catch the defence napping.
He has a solid running game and his speed makes him a chance at generous odds.
Betting tip: Chiefs +9.5 @ $1.90 – Bet @ Sportsbet
After graduating from the University of Auckland (BA – English), Daryl was thrown into the world of sports and horse racing journalism.
Having worked as a racing journalist for two years, he decided to move into the online world of horse racing and sports writing. After years of honing his craft, Daryl became a professional punter in 2009 – with a focus on horse racing, NRL, AFL, NBA, Rugby, NFL, and US college sports. Daryl’s tips have been featured on various websites around the world before joining the GoBet team. When he’s not working, Daryl tries to avoid making bogeys on the golf course.